‘We Need a Better Grasp of the Limits of Our Power’

The world has been using Israel as a punching bag for long enough, by Israel’s measure. Earlier this month, the fiery new Israeli foreign minister announced his nation would pursue a new, sterner style of diplomacy: “The era of groveling is over,” Avigdor Lieberman said. “[W]e will not tolerate insults and challenges.”

You have to admire Lieberman’s nerve—and some Israelis do. But they are about to see his tough talk blow up in their faces.

The world got its first good look at Lieberman-style diplomacy last week. It was an awkward episode with a low-riding couch. The fallout humiliated Israel—and portends even worse punishment to come.

The incident involved Turkey’s ambassador to Israel, Oğuz Çelikkol. Turkey is a fascinating case. In a neighborhood of enemies, Israel’s military cooperation with the Turks—which, secretly, stretches back as far as the 1950s—is one of the few effective barriers that exist against an Arab attack. Those itching to pick a fight with the Jews simply haven’t been eager to contend with Turkey’s million-man army, the second-largest force in nato after the United States. The Islamic Affairs Analyst went so far as to say that Israel’s foes—most notably Iran—have respected Turkey enough that the Jewish state’s survival was all but assured as long as these nations’ mutual defense pact, inked in 1996, held up.

Lately, though, that alliance has hit rough road. Turkey is lurching away from its secularist tradition and embracing its Muslim identity. It has elected a former Islamist as its president. Its relations with neighboring Muslim states—including Iran—have been warming. It is now one of the few nations in the world that recognize the terrorist group Hamas as a legitimate government. In fact, it appears to be aligning itself not with the Mideast’s more moderate Arab states, but with the Iran-dominated radical Islamic camp.

This all makes Turkey’s relationship with Israel rather awkward. When Israel attacked Hamas in Gaza in 2008, large, angry protests filled city streets across Turkey, including a rally of 200,000 in Istanbul square, spreading such charming sentiments as “Kill Jews” and “Israel should no longer exist in the Middle East.” At last year’s Davos conference, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan publicly walked out on Israel’s president. In October, Turkey scrapped a joint military drill planned with the United States, Italy and nato because of Israel’s involvement in the exercises. Turkey’s alliance with Israel is clearly giving way to radicalization among its leaders and populace.

Recent Turkish television dramas have demonized Israeli soldiers as murderers of Palestinian children and depicted Israeli diplomats as child abductors. Here is where Foreign Minister Lieberman’s new diplomatic strategy enters the scene.

Last week, Israel’s deputy foreign minister, Danny Ayalon, summoned Ambassador Çelikkol to protest the tv shows. At their meeting, Ayalon wouldn’t shake hands on camera. He seated Çelikkol on a couch visibly lower than his own, over a table that displayed an Israeli flag but not a Turkish flag. In the refined, subtle circles of diplomacy, such gestures speak volumes. Still, lest his point be lost, Ayalon told an Israeli cameraman in Hebrew that he wanted to make sure people saw the ambassador sitting down low “while we’re up high.”

“The Israeli message was, ‘we’ve had enough,’” Prof. Ephraim Inbar from Bar-Ilan University explained. It “might have not been the best treatment of an ambassador, but it came from the gut. The signal is that we’re not going to take it anymore.”

Without question, Israel had just cause to be upset. But the trouble is, it has nowhere near the strength to back up that threat. As a result, this incident, far from demonstrating the nation’s power, actually exposed its unmistakable weakness.

The Turks were duly insulted. They demanded a full apology. Unsatisfied with Ayalon’s response, Turkish President Abdullah Gül threatened to recall Turkey’s ambassador from Jerusalem. Suddenly, Israel faced the stark prospect of complete diplomatic fallout with its strategic, albeit questionable ally.

It backed down. Apparently the era of groveling isn’t quite over. Ayalon delivered a full apology.

Thus, after a volley of insults from Turkey, this foray into tough diplomacy left Israel as the contrite one. It was a dramatic display of the crushing limits of Israel’s “toughness.”

“Israel isn’t so strong that it can beat up on countries in the region,” Alon Liel, Israel’s former envoy to Turkey, told the Los Angeles Times. (Remember, by saying “beat up on,” Liel is simply talking about seating a foreign diplomat in a low chair.) “We need smart diplomacy and a better grasp of the limits of our power” (emphasis mine).

Watch for this embarrassing lesson to sink in within a chastened Israel. We would expect this, what Liel called “the first case study of this national pride diplomacy,” also to be effectively the last. The biblical prophecy of the pride of Israel’s power being broken (Leviticus 26:19) definitely applies to the Jewish state. Read Gerald Flurry’s article “Israel: When the Miracle Victories Ended” to understand this collapse of willpower in its prophetic context.

Certainly Turkey, through this incident, has gained a better grasp of the limits of Israeli power—as have several other Muslim neighbors. debkafile sources report that Turkey’s leaders are ecstatic at their diplomatic victory; Prime Minister Erdoğan is already “planning to intensify his campaign for grinding down the Jewish state, playing to the radical galleries in Tehran, Damascus, Gaza and Beirut” (January 13). “I didn’t know you Israelis were so stupid,” one high-ranking Turkish official told debka. “You’ve made Erdoğan’s sweetest dream come true.”

The ripple effects could be far-reaching. Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak apparently now feels more pressure to reconcile with Erdoğan’s partner Syria. “[B]y kowtowing to Ankara, the Israeli prime minister effectively pulled the rug from under the moderate Arab Middle East bloc and awarded points to the radical Turkish-Iran-Syrian coalition; the corollary is a stronger hand for the extremist Hamas against the Fatah-ruled Palestinian Authority,” debka reported. Iran is also anxious to seize the opportunity to further isolate Israel diplomatically. The Ayatollah Khamenei’s eagerness to ally with Turkey is squarely aimed at weakening the Jews. As we have said in the past, Turkey’s shift away from Israel and toward Islam could help throw the Middle East’s balance of power in Iran’s favor and play right into fulfilling Bible prophecy.

Ultimately, this diplomatic dust-up will not make the difference in Turkey’s reliability as an ally. Turkey simply is not a true friend of Israel; time will prove that indisputably.

However, the increasing starkness of the rift between these two nations does increase the immediate threat to Israel’s survival. Israel’s enemies in the region are emboldened by the growing recognition that Turkey will not be there to defend the Jews. Their fear to attack is shrinking.

The Trumpet has long written on the trap to Israel that the alliance with Turkey represents. The Bible actually foretells that, in the end, Turkey will cruelly betray Israel! Already we can see the seeds of hatred toward the Jewish state that will later flower into that act of treachery.