The Week in Review
Middle East
Iran celebrated the 31st anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini’s Islamic Revolution on Thursday, with demonstrators at large-scale rallies in Tehran and across the country voicing slogans such as “Independence, Freedom, Islamic Republic,” “Death to the U.S.” and “Death to Israel.” Security forces cracked down on anti-government protesters in Tehran. Prior to the anniversary, on Tuesday, pro-government Basijj militiamen in civilian clothing attacked the French, Italian and Dutch embassies in Tehran, hurling rocks and threatening death to their respective leaders, according to debkafile.
Even as it celebrates its Islamic Revolution anniversary, Iran has stepped up its aggressive stance. The Iranian Defense Ministry began mass production of advanced missiles, including a new anti-armor missile and an anti-chopper missile, on February 6, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency. “The Toufan 5 missile is one of the most advanced anti-armor missiles which has two warheads and is capable of destroying armored vehicles, tanks and personnel carriers due to its high penetration power,” Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said at the inauguration ceremony.
The following day, Sunday, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered his atomic chief to enrich uranium to a higher, weapons-grade level of purity. On Tuesday, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization announced that he had begun fulfilling his boss’s request. In a speech on Thursday, Ahmadinejad told the West, “Know that if we want, our nation has enough courage to say loud and clear that we want to manufacture nuclear weapons and to manufacture them without being afraid of you. … Even now we have the ability to enrich [uranium] to over 80 percent.” Currently, Iran says it is enriching uranium to 20 percent. As the Iranian crisis reaches a climax, it is becoming more evident that it is Europe, particularly Germany, that is destined to step up to the plate and address the threat, as our column from Thursday, “Iran: The German Solution,” explains.
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri has stated that the Lebanese government will officially support Hezbollah in any future conflict with Israel. “I think they’re betting that there might be some division in Lebanon, if there is a war against us,” Hariri said in an interview with the bbc, published on Wednesday. “Well, there won’t be a division in Lebanon. We will stand against Israel. We will stand with our own people.” Hariri is the son of the assassinated former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, an anti-Syrian who was supported by the West. Saad Hariri has also been considered a moderate in the past—before capitulating to Hezbollah and its Syrian and Iranian sponsors. He facilitated Hezbollah’s political rise within Lebanon by deciding to cooperate with the terrorist group rather than confront it. Hariri clearly sees which way the wind is blowing in the Middle East—and it is not in the favor of Israel or the United States.
Europe
European leaders agreed that “Euro area member states will take determined and coordinated action, if needed, to safeguard financial stability in the euro area as a whole,” on February 11, as concerns over Greece’s solvency threatened the common currency. German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that Greece would not be allowed to fail, saying, “Greece won’t be left alone, but there are rules, and these rules must be adhered to. On this basis we will agree on a statement.” This is still a developing story, and European leaders have not yet laid out the details of their plans. Watch for Germany to use this crisis to come out on top. Check out theTrumpet.com’s home page for several articles on the subject.
Germany wants to create a common European army, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said at the Munich Security conference, February 6. “The long-term goal is to build up a European army under full parliamentary control,” said Westerwelle. “The (Lisbon) treaty lays out a common security and defense policy. The federal government wants to make progress on this front.” Moving forward on this will be a “motor for greater European integration,” he said. “The European Union must live up to its political role as a global player,” said Westerwelle. “It must be able to manage crises independently. It must be able to respond quickly, flexibly and to take a united stand.” Herbert W. Armstrong, who founded the Trumpet’s predecessor, the Plain Truth, predicted, based on Bible prophecy, that European nations would unite their militaries into one large force. “Ten powerful European nations will combine their forces. It will be a gigantic, powerful empire! It will field the combined armies of 10 nations,” he wrote in the May 1953 edition of the Good News magazine. This prophecy is nearing fulfillment, as the German foreign minister’s statements indicate.
The Catholic Church has been hit by another massive sex scandal, this time in Germany. Around 100 priests and members of the laity are suspected of abuse. “This is what it looks like, the document of a conspiracy: 24 pages, with appendix, in Latin, published by the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith at the Vatican,” wrote Spiegel Online about the Vatican guidelines written in 1962. “A ‘norma interna,’ or confidential set of guidelines for all bishops, who were required to keep it a secret for all eternity …. But now the wall of silence is coming down here in Germany. It started when Berlin’s Canisius College, an elite Jesuit high school, recently disclosed the sordid past of a number of members of the order who had abused students at the school in the 1970s and 1980s. After that, new victims began coming forward on a daily basis. … A tremor is currently passing through the Catholic Church in Germany. It could be merely the beginning of an earthquake of proportions which have so far only been seen in the American and Irish church. Tens of thousands of abuse cases were brought to light in both countries. Could Germany be next?” The fact that child abuse on such a huge scale, worldwide, is tolerated by the Vatican exposes the true nature of the Roman Catholic Church. For more on this scandal, see our May 21, 2009, article “Ireland: Shocking Child Abuse by the Roman Catholic Church.”
German Foreign Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg voiced his impatience with nato at the high-profile Munich Security Conference, February 7. “We have talked too much and achieved too little,” he said. He called for nato to end its “absurd” practice of unanimous decision making. Watch for Germany to try to bend nato to its will.
Asia
Senior Chinese military officers proposed that their country sell U.S. bonds in order to punish Washington for its planned $6.4 billion arms sale to Taiwan. People’s Liberation Army (pla) major generals Luo Yuan and Zhu Chenghu and Senior Col. Ke Chunqiao put forth the idea in interviews published in Monday’s issue of Outlook Weekly. “Our retaliation,” said Luo in the interview, “should not be restricted to merely military matters, and we should adopt a strategic package of counter-punches covering politics, military affairs, diplomacy and economics to treat both the symptoms and root cause of this disease.” “For example,” Luo continued, “we could sanction them using economic means, such as dumping some U.S. government bonds.” Though they don’t represent official government policy, the pla officers’ demands for retaliation exemplify the domestic pressures on China to make good on its threats to punish Washington over the weapons sale to Taiwan, and they also illustrate the vulnerable position America is in. Officially, China has announced plans to sanction U.S. companies that sell weapons to the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which Beijing considers a breakaway province of China. The U.S. owes China a lot of money, which gives Beijing considerable economic power.
On February 4, China’s Commerce Ministry accused the U.S. of dumping chicken on the Chinese market, and announced plans to levy substantial duties on U.S. chicken products. The heavy import duties—of as much as 105.4 percent—will injure one of the few U.S. industries that profitably exports to China. Despite China’s claims that the U.S. illegally sells chicken wings and feet for prices below the cost of production, the case is political. These duties will be at least as harmful for Chinese consumers as they are for U.S. exporters. Underpinning the decision is an argument over the value of the Chinese currency, the yuan. Washington claims the yuan is kept artificially low, which gives Chinese firms an advantage on international markets, but China has ignored the calls to revalue its currency. Beijing’s latest move against U.S. chicken sidelines China’s earlier promises to avoid protectionism and demonstrates the rising tensions between China and the U.S. The duties will come into effect on February 13.
Africa/Latin America
The South African anc-led government continues to show solidarity with Iran even as the West grapples with trying to stop the Islamic Republic from becoming a nuclear threat. In late January, South Africa’s parliament speaker visited Iran, voicing support for its nuclear program and calling for an expansion of relations between Pretoria and Tehran. Iranian officials also expressed a desire to enhance ties in all areas with South Africa, and for South African investors to be more active in Iran’s economic projects. South Africa’s Speaker of Parliament Max Sisulu met with his Iranian counterpart, Ali Larijani, in Tehran on January 23. According to the Tehran Times, Larijani said “that the South African parliament speaker’s trip to Iran can pave the way for the expansion of relations between the two countries in the political, economic and parliamentary spheres” (January 24). Additionally, South Africa has been cultivating a close relationship with Russia. These two countries together possess most of the world’s strategic minerals—some 90 percent of them. In a booklet written back in 1997, we drew attention to the potential danger in South Africa’s growing ties with both Russia and Middle Eastern countries: “[I]f an African National Congress (anc)-South African Communist Party (sacp)-dominated government in South Africa forges links with the Islamic-Arab crescent in consortium with Russia, only those who bow to radical Islam and a Communist-led anc may get their raw materials!” The relationship between South Africa and Iran is one to watch. Read our July 1999 Trumpet article “Ready to Explode?” for details on the significance of this relationship.
British firms are scheduled to begin exploring for oil around the Falkland Islands, prompting an angry response from Argentina. The drilling is “illegitimate” and a “violation of our sovereignty,” said Argentinean Foreign Minister Jorge Taiana, promising that “we will do everything possible to defend and preserve our rights.” On February 11, Argentinean authorities boarded a ship they claim was transporting pipes for the oil excavations to the Falklands. In 1982, Britain went to war over these islands. Yet it is rapidly losing both the will and ability to continue to defend its interests there. Watch for Argentina to push harder to get these islands back.
Anglo-America
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on February 7 said America is in no danger of losing its aaa credit rating, even though America is still losing tens of thousands of jobs per month and the government is projected to run the biggest budget deficit in the history of the world. America will “absolutely not,” have its credit rating slashed, said Geithner. “That will never happen to this country.” We are in “the process of healing,” he said, and investors around the world have a “basic confidence” in the United States. Geithner’s comments come despite Moody’s Investors Service warning last week that U.S. government bond ratings will come under pressure in the future unless America’s budget deficits are reduced. Don’t be too confident that the U.S. economy is safe.
The U.S. officially rejected its two-war doctrine as the Department of Defense unveiled its Quadrennial Defense Review on February 1. In the past, the U.S. has prepared to fight two major conventional wars alone at once. The review, however, focused on the threat posed by non-state actors and emphasized reliance on allies. “The United States cannot sustain a stable international system alone,” it said. “Challenges to common interests are best addressed in concert with likeminded allies and partners who share responsibility for fostering peace and security.” Watch for America to place its national security in the hands of allies it shouldn’t be trusting.
In Britain, an average of one in eight shops is shut, according to a report by the Local Data Company published February 10. The report warned that after the financial crisis, high streets will never be the same again.
The marriage rate in England and Wales has reached its lowest point since records began in 1862, according to a provisional report published by the Office of National Statistics, February 11. For the first time, in 2008 fewer than 2 percent of women over the age of 16 got married over the course of the year, as the marriage rate for women fell from 20.2 women marrying per 1,000 in 2007 to 19.6. “Living together and marriage are increasingly seen as the same by the public, yet the outcomes are radically different,” said marriage campaigner Dave Percival. “Two thirds of all the first marriages in 2008 can be expected to last a lifetime. Less than 10 percent of cohabiting relationships last even to their 10th anniversary.”
Seventy percent of British people believe that their society is broken, according to a poll published on February 9. Forty-two percent said they would emigrate if they could.
The Church of England seems poised to split over the issue of women bishops and homosexuality. As the church’s governing body, the General Synod, began its meeting on February 8, Anglo-Catholics claimed that “large numbers” would join the Catholic Church if the church did not limit the effect of female bishops in the church. As the Anglican Church becomes even more divided and ineffectual, watch for Roman Catholicism to gain ground.
The British government succumbed to pressure from the Roman Catholic Church and stopped pushing its Equality Bill this week. “We are clear that these parts of the Equality Bill should not go forward. The pope’s intervention has been noted,” the Telegraph quoted a British government source as saying, February 3. The bill was unpopular, and may have failed without the pope’s help, but the fact that the Vatican can influence a nation that used to pride itself on being free of the Catholic Church shows how powerful Rome is becoming.
The white cliffs of Dover, a symbol of Britain’s freedom and independence, could be sold to France. In order to address Britain’s ballooning national debt, government advisers are recommending the Port of Dover be privatized and put on the market. The leading bidder is the Nord-pas-de-Calais regional council, which owns the French port of Calais right across the English Channel.
