Japan is on the cusp of being economically overtaken by China, and the trend has infused its national mood with tension. The sense of weakness is compounded by Japan’s soaring national debt, a shrinking economy and a beleaguered Toyota—which once embodied Japan’s reputation for quality.

Last week, Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman said that Japan’s reaction to its perceptions of internal weakness will have global ramifications. “The country’s size and strategic importance make it critical to America’s Pacific strategy and to China’s geopolitical calculations,” Rachman wrote. He went on to say that the ground is being prepared for Japan to form a “special relationship” with China. He also said that the early policies of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s government have confirmed the impression that “something is afoot.”

When Hatoyama’s Democratic Party of Japan (dpj) charged into power last August, it ended more than 50 years of nearly continuous rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (ldp). The dpj aspires to differentiate itself from the ldp in almost every stance, including in regard to foreign policy. In early March, Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada said that the ldp had followed U.S. foreign policy “too closely.” “From now onwards,” he said, “this will be the age of Asia.”

A look at Toyota Motor Corporation’s different approaches to its markets in the U.S. and China regarding its recent car recall illustrates Japan’s differing perceptions of the two countries.

On February 24, under orders by the House Committee, Toyota’s president, Akio Toyoda, gave testimony before angry U.S. lawmakers and millions of irate Americans which left some unconvinced of his sincerity. “Where is the remorse?” Ohio Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur asked. Republican John Mica of Florida called a report from Toyota which bragged of diffusing a safety investigation “absolutely appalling.”

Next stop: Beijing. On March 1, in an address to a group of 300 reporters gathered at a hotel, Toyoda apologized to consumers of the world’s biggest auto market. Toyota sales have held steady in China, and analysts believe Toyoda’s visit was primarily to show the increasing importance the Chinese market has to his company. One commentator said that Toyoda went to Beijing “to say thanks as well as sorry.” Toyoda bowed twice during his apology to the Chinese, which was two times more than he bowed in Washington. Considering that Toyota recalled around 75,000 vehicles in China in the past year, compared to 6 million in the U.S., this visit shows how important future sales to the Chinese are to Toyota.

The colder attitude toward Washington, like the ongoing Okinawa argument, reflects a broader trend. Prime Minister Hatoyama is working toward a Japan with a more “balanced” relationship with Washington. After 65 years of Japanese subservience in the security sector, Tokyo’s mood is changing. This, coupled with Hatoyama’s desire to develop an East Asian economic community with China and other Asian powers, has been met with criticism in the U.S.—so much so that former Ambassador Hisahiko Okazaki said, “The relationship between the U.S. and Japan is in its worst state ever.”

Hatoyama’s foreign-policy adviser Terashima Jitsuro published an essay on March 15 calling for Tokyo to revise the U.S.-Japan security treaty. Jitsuro said it is “unnatural for foreign military forces to be stationed for an extended period of time in an independent nation,” and implored Japanese citizens to return to the “common sense of international society,” which he says would not tolerate the U.S.’s current military role in Japan.

The shift in Japan’s priorities—away from the U.S. security alliance and toward stronger ties with the surrounding “kings of the east”—is nothing new, but it is gathering momentum at unprecedented speed. Despite the Western orientation Tokyo has maintained since World War ii, Japan has deeply-rooted Eastern ideologies, and will return to its roots.

Rachman is right in saying that something is afoot in the Land of the Rising Sun.

Japan will continue to distance itself from the West, and Sino-Japanese relations will continue to strengthen. For further insight into the future of Asia, read our free booklet Russia and China in Prophecy.