Iraqi election results begin to emerge

Final results are still not in for Iraq’s March 7 parliamentary election, though Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Iran-friendly State of Law coalition is in the lead, having won the capital, Baghdad, and oil hub Basra. However, supporters of both Maliki and his main challenger, secularist Iyad Allawi, are making allegations of fraud.

The pro-Iranian Shiite Iraqi National Alliance (ina) and Kurdish parties are trailing the frontrunners.

Reuters reported Wednesday that “Safia al-Suhail, a State of Law candidate, said the bloc was exploring alliances with the ina and the Kurds, whose support may prove pivotal, but said a union with Iraqiya [Allawi’s party] was unlikely.” This would be in line with pre-election reports that Maliki had agreed to such an alliance, under pressure from Tehran.

In an unexpected outcome for many, the movement of the Iran-supported, anti-American radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr—which is part of the ina coalition—has fared well in the elections. Al-Sadr led the Shiite insurgency in Iraq before ostensibly turning to politics. It is expected that the Sadrists may win more than 40 seats in the 325-seat parliament, making them perhaps the second-largest Shiite bloc and the clear majority in the ina. “If the numbers are borne out,” writes the New York Times, “the Sadrists could wield a bloc roughly the same size as the Kurds, who have served as kingmakers in governing coalitions since 2005.”

The Times notes that the Sadrists’ apparent success “underscores a striking trend in Iraqi politics: a collapse in support for many former exiles who collaborated with the United States after the 2003 invasion.” The group is on “the brink of perhaps its greatest political influence in Iraq,” the Times writes.

Al-Sadr is currently in Iran studying to become an ayatollah. His followers have refused any contact with the U.S. military or diplomats for the past seven years.

While it may take months of negotiations for a working government to be formed, the increased participation by the Sunnis may make it easier for the United States to complete its troop withdrawal on schedule, as Sunni marginalization has been one of the drivers of violence in the country. U.S. officials have declared the election a security achievement, and said the U.S. military and Defense Department have agreed to proceed with a rapid pullout from the country.