Radical Shiite cleric is Iraq’s kingmaker

In a bitter twist of irony for the United States, the individual who will determine the outcome of Iraq’s elections is probably the most anti-U.S. politician in the country—one whose primary goal is to get rid of American troops and influence in Iraq.

With the two winning parties in last month’s parliamentary elections locked in a tight battle for control of the government, Muqtada al-Sadr—who won the most votes in the third-placed pro-Iranian Iraqi National Alliance—has emerged as perhaps the key powerbroker between Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the secular-leaning Ayad Allawi.

Asia Times Online reports,

As the two men bicker, a real uncrowned prime minister emerges from the shadow—rebel-turned-statesman Muqtada al-Sadr, a fiery anti-American politician inspired by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. His say will ultimately make or break the future prime minister.

Yes, the relatively small group of Sadrites in Iraq could determine who the next prime minister of the country is. Last Friday and Saturday, Sadr put the choice of who should fill the post to his supporters in a referendum:

The young leader, age 37, gave his followers five choices: Maliki, Allawi, Adel Abdul Mehdi of the siic [Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council], Ibrahim al-Jaafari (another former prime minister) and Muqtada’s relative, Jaafar al-Sadr, a 39-year-old member of Maliki’s State of Law coalition. Although results are yet to be announced, sources close to Muqtada have signaled that he wants Jaafar al-Sadr, having very little faith in Allawi, Maliki and Jaafari, whom he describes as pro-American. …Depending on what the Muqtada vote says, the identity of the new prime minister will be determined. Whoever it is, he will need a vote of confidence by 163 deputies out of 325 to secure the premiership. Only Muqtada has the ability to make that happen.

Asia Times Online points out that analysts have predicted the end of political Islam in Iraq due to the poor showing by the siic in provincial elections last year. Sadr’s popularity may not derive from his Islamic credentials—rather, according to Asia Times Online, it is “because of his commitment to seeing the United States out of Iraq, and the massive charity network that he operates [copied from the Hezbollah model in Lebanon], providing the needy and poor with jobs, money, hope and protection from lawlessness.”

Nevertheless, “Muqtada’s victory and renewed status as kingmaker challenges those who claimed that religiously driven politicians were on the demise after the March 2010 elections. The man is certainly no secular and ultimately hopes to establish an Iran-style theocracy in Baghdad …. Last week, he made that very clear by traveling to Tehran along with senior members of his party to meet with Iranian officials” (ibid.).

While today Sadr is somewhat careful about coming across as too pro-Iranian, and analysts commonly assert he is wary of Iranian influence in Iraq, his history shows close ties with Iran. In January 2006, for example, he told the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council that in the event of an attack on Iran, Iraq would come to its aid. Senior fellow Constantine Menges of the Hudson Institute reported in 2004 that Sadr had close ties both to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and al-Quds Army. “Iran is working covertly with Iraqi extremist Muqtada al-Sadr to use political and coercive means, including murder, to intimidate and take over Shiite leadership in Iraq,” he wrote (April 14, 2004). At that time, Iran was blatantly supporting Sadr and his followers.

This potential kingmaker is the same radical who only a few years ago led the bloody uprisings against American forces and was responsible for some of the worst violence in Iraq. While Sadr’s tactics may have changed somewhat, his goal has not: the expulsion of U.S. troops and influence from Iraq. And this is the man whom, writes Asia Times Online, “all those who are eyeing the premiership today … are struggling for an alliance with.”