America’s Rome Moment
Empires progress through predictable cycles. That is what history shows. Human nature doesn’t change, so the cycles repeat over and over again: birth, growth, decline and death—then supplantation by a new civilization with a potent new culture.
The United States is no different. But the big question is: Where is America in the cycle? And is a new civilization already emerging to supplant it?
During the birth and growth phases, civilizations are dynamic. A lack of wealth and security spurs the development of large families, a sense of drive and resourcefulness and reliance on a higher power for protection and guidance. Agricultural production, industry and commerce become the order of the day. Roads and bridges are built. Natural resources are exploited. As success builds upon success, citizens become infused with a sense of manifest destiny. Wealth accumulates and the nation expands.
Yet unfortunately, and inevitably, change eventually sets in. Little by little, the old explorers, builders, and church-goers are replaced by a new cohort that is rich and increased with goods attained not from their own toil, but that of previous generations. They think they are in need of nothing and don’t realize that they are living on legacy.
This apathy and resultant deteriorating work ethic has predictable results. Decline sets in. As famous historian Edward Gibbons noted about the collapse of ancient Rome, “Prosperity ripened the principle of decay.”
In his masterpiece History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Gibbons identified five major causes that contributed to the fall of the Roman Empire. The first four were the breakdown of the family, increased taxation, unsustainable military commitments, and the decay of religion.
The first four are well established and underway in America—as is the fifth: an insatiable craving for pleasure.
Whether it is America’s disappearing work ethic, its entitlement culture, or its “buy now, pay later” attitude that is ingrained in society, America is charging head first into the final stage of empires: death.
Read this and weep. On June 26, the Daily Mail brought to light a whistle-blower’s account of the pathetic state of work ethic today. The story takes place in Britain, but conditions are similar in the U.S. It is long, but worth the read (emphasis mine throughout).
Monday morning, it’s 10 a.m. and I’m late for work—but there’s no point hurrying because even though I should have been at my desk 30 minutes ago, I know I’ll be the first to arrive at the office.
Sure enough, the planning department is a ghost town. Our flexi-hours policy means that employees can start any time between 7.30 a.m. and 10 a.m., but council workers like to treat that as a rough guideline rather than the contractual obligation that it is. I’m a senior planning officer: It’s my job to inspect buildings, grant planning approval and to guide members of the public looking to alter their homes. Our department has 60 employees …. I’ve been there for two years and in that period the only time I’ve ever seen every employee present and correct was at the Christmas party. At least 10 people will be off sick on any one day. The departmental record holder is Doreen—she has worked a grand total of eight days in 14 months. Doreen must be the unluckiest woman in the country. In the past year and a half she claims she has: fallen victim to frostbite; been hit by a car; and accidentally set herself on fire. But she’s really pulled out all the stops with her latest excuse: witchcraft. That’s right, Doreen believes somebody in Nigeria has cast a spell on her and that it would be unprofessional of her to attempt to do the job she is paid £56k a year for while under the influence of the spell. She has already been off for four months on full pay. I’ve no idea how long this spell lasts, but my guessing would be six months to the day—the exact amount of time council employees can take off on full pay before their money is reduced. But having just eight weeks of full pay left won’t be a problem for Doreen and the rest of the council’s sickly staff—they’ll simply return to work when the six months is up, put in a day or two’s work and then go off sick for another six months on full pay again. Easy. … There are procedures in place to address attendance, but nobody ever follows them through—chances are the person whose job it is to monitor sickness is probably signed off himself. Some human resources managers, usually new to the job, do try to take action—but it mostly backfires. … I’ve been told by colleagues that I don’t take enough sick leave—when I protest that it is because I’m in good health they look confused. What’s that got to do with anything? … Back to the day’s business. Jerry is the next to arrive at 10.25 a.m.—before he takes his jacket off he performs his morning ritual of taking both his phones off the hook. … Jerry is 63 and two years from retirement. He is what is known in the civil service and local government as an “untouchable”—he’s been at the council for more than 40 years, does no work, but would cost an absolute fortune to get rid of. So he’s left alone to play online poker, Skype his daughter in Florida and take his two-hour daily snooze at his desk, no doubt dreaming of the day when his gold-plated public sector pension will kick in. … There’s no point showing any initiative. I once wandered down to the “Streetcare” department to ask why … nobody was answering the phone. But only two staff had turned up that day and they were both in the prayer room. Yes, you read that correctly, all large council offices now provide prayer rooms, primarily for their Muslim employees whose faith requires them to perform devotional prayers at midday, in the afternoon and at sunset. … In fairness, there are some very hard workers at the council, but they are so massively outweighed by the work-shy that they’re fighting a losing battle. The culture is very much one of getting minimum done for maximum pay. Even when a reasonable proportion of the staff turns up for work (for our office that would be about 60 percent) very little gets done because the officers cannot be bothered with the fiddly paperwork that goes with the job. … It’s the same story across the world: When a nation’s public sector is allowed to expand into a bloated behemoth, it is almost impossible to cut it down to size, still less to change the culture of waste and laziness that sets in. I don’t know what the solution is. Even those, like myself, who join with the best of intentions are soon worn down and end up subscribing to the “if you can’t beat them, join them” school of thought.
If you don’t think this kind of behavior is widespread in America too, just look at what the unions did to the Detroit automakers. Look at the stranglehold unions have on the California government. Amid the worst recession since the 1930s, with unemployment in the high double digits, what did the Oakland teachers union threaten if it didn’t get a raise? A strike. The government is no better either: Witness the massive pork spending that accompanies virtually every bill passed in Congress. And if you have ever visited a Department of Motor Vehicles office in an inner city, you know that efficiency and service is not high on the priority list.
America is being destroyed by the same forces that wrecked ancient Rome.
At all levels of society—individual, local, state and national—people can’t control themselves. The work ethic is going, and immediate gratification is the primary motivator.
And what are we left with? For one: the biggest debt compared to gross domestic product since the war years. For the first time ever, America is going broke just in the normal course of business—without an emergency!
As the Daily Reckoning brings out, America has emergency budgets, but no emergency: “You may think that they are fighting the emergency of a recession or the threat of a depression, but you would be wrong. Most of the deficits have little to do with stimulus or bailout efforts. They are just the ordinary results of social welfare programs that have gotten out of control.”
America has made trillions of dollars’ worth of promises—to placate constituents, to buy votes, to keep special interest groups happy—that it can’t keep. That is what makes this debt so dangerous. After World War ii ended, so did the war spending. But for America today, debts are part of the normal and essential mode of operating.
So far the bills and interest are more or less getting paid, but that is not because the system is sustainable—it is because society has been living off (and selling off) the wealth and infrastructure accumulated and built in the past.
But each and every day, the bills grow and become more difficult to pay. Debt default is coming.
In Rome too, the “decline” stage was marked by growing economic stress, big government and expanding social welfare programs. As Rome’s currency was devalued to pay the bills (less silver and gold was put into each coin), bread and circuses to feed and entertain the populace grew.
But eventually it was all too much for the empire to withstand. America may soon reach the breaking point too.
On June 27, it was reported that the Royal Bank of Scotland warned investors to prepare for “monster” money printing by the U.S. Federal Reserve. “We cannot stress enough how strongly we believe that a cliff edge may be around the corner, for the global banking system … and for the global economy. Think the unthinkable,” said credit chief Andrew Roberts.
“Monster” money printing, or quantitative easing as it is technically called, is the modern equivalent of taking the gold and silver out of the coinage and replacing it with tin and lead. It is usually the last-ditch effort of nations to pay the bills and avoid debt default. And when carried to the extreme, it almost always ends in sudden inflation. But what other choice does America have? The country is locked in deflation. Government revenues are drying up. Increased taxes will only shrink the economy even more. And the debts and social promises have to be paid.
America is facing its Rome moment—transitioning between “decline” and “death.”
Yet as one empire declines, another inevitably steps in to replace it. Will it be an Asian power, Europe, or something else?
The answer, according to your Bible, is all three. The first two for a very short period of time, and then a new empire with a potent new culture and civilization that will be permanent. For a description of this new coming empire and how it will be implemented, read the booklet The Wonderful World Tomorrow—What It Will Be Like.