China Surpasses U.S. in Energy Use

STR/AFP/Getty Images

China Surpasses U.S. in Energy Use

History moves on. But where is it leading?

China just became the world’s largest energy consumer. China’s dramatic growth should be a wake-up call for Washington. America’s days as the world’s sole superpower are nearing an end—and much more quickly than anticipated by most.

China’s predominance marks “a new age in the history of energy,” says International Energy Agency chief economist Fatih Birol. For approximately a century, America has been the globe’s biggest energy user—but as of last year, those days are over.

According to the Wall Street Journal,global energy markets have been transformed, and there are long-term implications for America and the world. Historically, being the largest consumer of fossil fuels was correlated with being the dominant economy. Prior to America’s ascension, this was the position held by Great Britain for most of the time beginning with the Industrial Revolution.

Although America’s economy, as measured by gross domestic product, is still twice as large as China’s, the Chinese economy is growing approximately three times as fast. On a per capita basis, Americans still burn approximately five times that of individual Chinese. But with 1 billion-plus Chinese becoming wealthier, China’s energy consumption is set to soar.

Just 10 years ago, China only used half as much energy as the U.S., and estimates concluded that China would not surpass America for at least another five years. Those estimates were severely wrong.

If all the proposed power-generation plants are completed, in just a few years Chinese energy usage will dwarf America’s. According to Birol, China is slated to build approximately 1,000 gigawatts of new electricity-generating capacity over the next decade and a half. To put that number into perspective, that is the total current generating capacity of the U.S.—an amount that took America several decades to build.

It is as if history has been sped up.

For thousands of years, energy production and consumption remained virtually stagnant, just keeping up with increasing population. Then around 1800, Great Britain burst onto the scene to become the world’s dominant economy and largest energy producer. Just over one hundred years later, America supplanted Britain as the foremost economy and superpower. Fast-forward 100 years and China now seems to be well on the way to replacing America.

The rise of China has specific implications for America.

“There is little doubt that China’s growing consumption changes what ability we have to control our own destiny within global energy markets,” said David Pumphrey, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “China can now demand a large space inside any energy-policy tent.”

China’s quest for more energy, and America’s fight to maintain its, means that in at least one major arena—oil procurement—the possibility of conflict is growing.

Chinese oil companies have been scouring the globe, looking for resources. This has led China to pursue relations with unsavory regimes, like Sudan, in the quest for energy.

With global production at a plateau, competition over dwindling energy resources will only heat up.

China is also set to challenge U.S. influence in the Middle East—with possible repercussions for the U.S. dollar. For example, America is no longer Saudi Arabia’s most important customer. That title now belongs to China. China is also Iran’s biggest oil market.

Saudi Arabia’s decision, following the end of World War ii, to only sell oil priced in U.S. dollars helped establish the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. If the world wanted access to Saudi oil, it first needed to purchase dollars. At that time, America was set to become the world’s largest oil importer. Although it still maintains that title, as far as Saudi Arabia is concerned its biggest client is now China.

American power is on the wane.