Peak Oil Scares Germany
On September 1, the German Der Spiegel confirmed a leaked German military document currently circulating on the Internet. The report’s explosive conclusions indicate that the German military ascribes to “peak oil” theory and is planning for a world in which Germany may soon have to go to extremes to obtain oil.
According to the Bundeswehr (German military) authors, the implications of a newly oil-constrained world will be dramatic. A world without ever-growing oil supplies quenching the thirst of an ever-growing population is a world in which have-not countries are doomed to economic and social decay. Conversely, those with oil will be the new power brokers, able to force their own agendas and even blackmail other countries into subservience.
The concept of peak oil—if true—is frightening.
The term “peak oil” describes the point in time when global oil production passes its zenith and begins to decline. According to strict theory, “peak oil” is a geological phenomena. Just as individual oil fields mature and then eventually enter a relentless production drop-off, the world’s oil production is postulated to reach the same point.
Other energy experts note that “peak oil” may be brought about by political and technical phenomena too. Environmentalists are working to reduce oil exploration and production, while other possible oil regions are off limits due to unstable governments or unsavory regimes. Then there is the technical challenge of increasing oil production on a global level. The world has millions of oil wells, each producing fractionally less oil each and every day. It is a constant race against the clock to keep oil supplies up.
For peak oil adherents, the end result is the same: a permanent supply crisis!
Unless the West takes action, and soon, it is doomed, the Bundeswehr authors argue.
Lt. Col. Thomas Will and the other report authors claim that there is “some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later.”
In case you missed that, 2010 is this year.
As the authors are aware, global oil production has stagnated for the past few years—possibly just barely increasing. Why else does a barrel of oil trade at $75 per barrel at a time when the world is locked in its worst recession since the 1930s? Consumer demand for oil has plummeted, yet the price remains disturbingly high.
Do insiders fear a looming oil crunch? As evidenced by the leaked report, at least some within German military circles do. At the very least, according to Der Spiegel, the leaked report not only shows “how intensively the German government has engaged with the question of peak oil,” but “that the German government fears shortages could quickly arise.”
Don’t be fooled into thinking that the effects of an oil shortage won’t be felt for 15 to 30 years.
Economic analysts and military strategists alike understand that if peak oil really is here (or shortly will be here), the time to take action to secure oil supplies is now, before severe, economy-crippling shortages arrive and before major oil producers gain too much geopolitical and military power.
This is especially true for Germany.
Although the United States is by far the world’s largest oil importer, it at least has some domestic reserves. Germany, however, is forced to import almost 100 percent of its oil. Other European Union members are not much better off. The Netherlands, Italy and France also import virtually all their fuel too. Taken together, the European Union is the most oil-dependent power in the world—by far.
In no other region of the world is securing foreign oil supplies of such vital importance.
But if the German military’s covert adherence to peak oil theory isn’t startling enough, even more startling and potentially explosive are the recommendations put forth by the military report’s energy experts.
For example, Germany will need to cut a deal with Russia if it wants to ensure a secure supply of Russian oil. The language in the report stirs unpleasant memories. According to its authors, German access to Russian oil and gas is of fundamental importance. “For Germany, this involves a balancing act between stable and privileged relations with Russia and the sensitivities of [Germany’s] eastern neighbors.”
In other words, according to Der Spiegel, if Germany “wants to guarantee its own energy security, [it] should be accommodating in relation to Moscow’s foreign-policy objectives, even if it means risking damage to its relations with Poland and other Eastern European states.”
You could be forgiven for thinking this sounds a bit like a return to 1939 when Vyacheslav Molotov and Joachim von Ribbentrop, the Russian and German foreign ministers, signed a non-aggression pact before carving up Eastern Europe between the two powers.
Germany is growing more aware of Russia’s power. Russia literally controls the pipes that bring the vast majority of gas and oil into Europe—but with each passing day, those pipes are beginning to look a lot less like an energy lifeline and more like a hangman’s noose.
On August 29, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin opened a new section of the East Siberian-Pacific Ocean Pipeline that will carry crude oil from Russia’s vast Siberian oil deposits to markets in the Pacific. “This is an important project” for Russia, he said at the ceremony. “[W]e are beginning to diversify the delivery of our energy resources.”
“Thus far, shipments were made to our European partners,” noted Putin, but now they can also flow to China.
Russian oil and gas can now flow two directions—and the significance of this development for Germany and Europe can hardly be overstated.
In the past, when Russia has had pricing disputes with Europe, its threats of an embargo were an obvious bluff. It had no other alternative outlet for its oil. Without the Europeans, its oil would sit in Samotlor and Tyanskoye, costing money instead of making it. But now Moscow can turn off the tap to Europe and still pump in the profits by opening the pipe wide to its energy-hungry Asian partners.
Russian oil deliveries to Europe no longer provide even the facade of a secure supply. And that means there is only one other place Germany can go to for oil.
As was brought out by the leaked military report, peak oil will also necessitate major changes in Germany’s relations with the one other region with excess oil supplies: the Middle East. Germany can expect to deal with “a more aggressive assertion of national interests on the part of the oil-producing nations,” says the leaked document (emphasis mine). Oil will empower nations like Iran, it predicts.
Thus Berlin will be forced to “show more pragmatism toward oil-producing states in their foreign policy” in order to not offend Arab oil-exporting nations. This will mean altering its foreign-policy relations with Israel and reevaluating its stance on Israel’s right to exist, conclude the authors. And strains in the relationship between Germany and Israel are inevitable, they argue.
There is, however, one additional option for Berlin to secure a source of oil that the report’s authors do not comment on: Germany’s military option.
Back in 1994, the Trumpet’s editor in chief wrote that Iran had become the most powerful Islamic country in the Middle East. “Can you imagine the power [the Iranians] would have if they gained control of Iraq, which was at one time the third-leading exporter of oil in the world?” he asked.
“Such a takeover [of Iraq] by Iran would shock the world—especially Europe. It would be a strong impetus for Europe to unite quickly. Such a move would, in all likelihood, give Iran power to cause a sizable increase in the price of oil …. This in turn could cause Europe to quickly unite into the most powerful economic bloc in the world.”
Continuing on, Gerald Flurry wrote that Iran would use its oil leverage to push at Europe, specifically Germany. Oil would be a part of the push, he wrote. And that push will eventually trigger a military response.
As highlighted by the leaked Bundeswehr report, Germany is even now preparing for a world constrained by resource limitation. How will it all play out? Will Germany and the European Union invade Iran? Will the Russians divert most of their oil exports to China? And what will happen to America in an age of dwindling oil? For answers to these vital questions, read The King of the South and Russia and China in Prophecy.