The Week in Review
Middle East
As the uprising that began February 15 in Libya continues, Muammar Qadhafi is using brutal force in the capital to try to maintain his grip on power. His opponents, including troops who have defected, took control of the eastern part of the country on Wednesday, effectively splitting the country in two. Opposition forces are now closing in on Tripoli. With Libya being the world’s 12th-biggest oil producer, and Africa’s third biggest, oil prices are rising as a result of the unrest. Prices soared 7 percent on Tuesday, putting oil at a 2½-year high. By Thursday, they had risen to over $100 a barrel. Libya’s biggest customer is Europe, which receives an estimated 10 percent of its oil from there. Thus, Libya’s uprising represents a massive escalation of the threat to European energy supplies, with an estimated 1 million barrels (out of 1.6 million) of daily production already cut. Moreover, with nobody knowing where the contagion of revolution in the Middle East will stop, fears abound of a more drastic threat to oil supplies. For more, read Joel Hilliker’s column this week, “Libya Convulses—Watch Europe!”
Meanwhile, in Algeria, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika lifted a 19-year-old state of emergency on Thursday in an effort to stave off a similar uprising there. Regular protests have been held in the Algerian capital during recent weeks. An opposition leader has told Reuters, however, that the ending of the state of emergency is not enough and that the government must allow more democratic freedoms. Just like Libya, Algeria is a major energy exporter, a key supplier of both oil and gas to Europe. Based on Bible prophecy, we expect both Libya and Algeria to trend toward the Iranian-led Islamist camp.
On February 18, Egypt welcomed home Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who had been living in exile for decades. For 30 years, Hosni Mubarak had banned the “father figure” of the Muslim Brotherhood from preaching in Egypt. But just seven days after Mubarak’s resignation, Egypt rolled out the red carpet for this popular sheikh, whose extremist views call for the extermination of Jews. Qaradawi also supports suicide bombings aimed at civilians. An estimated 1 million people gathered in Tahrir Square for the Friday “day of victory” rally. In his message, Qaradawi stated, “I harbor the hope that just like Allah allowed me to witness the triumph in Egypt, he will allow me to witness the conquest of the al-Aqsa Mosque and will enable me to preach in the al-Aqsa Mosque.” At this point the crowd of 1 million burst forth with enthusiastic chants: “To Jerusalem we go, for us to be the martyrs of the millions; to Jerusalem we go, for us to be the martyrs of the millions.” For two decades now, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has taught that East Jerusalem is the primary goal of the radical Islamists. As events march on in the Middle East, that Bible-based forecast is being increasingly validated.
Two Iranian naval ships passed through the Suez Canal en route to Syria on Tuesday. The vessels, a frigate and a supply ship, were the first warships from Iran to make the journey through the sea gate since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Iranian official news agency Fars claims the two ships are on a year-long intelligence-gathering mission to prepare cadets to defend Iranian commercial vessels against Somali pirates. Israel has a more realistic view. Prof. Shlomo Aronson from the department of political science at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem told Xinhua that the move indicates a change in Iranian intentions as the passing of the ships is seen by Israelis as an Iranian attempt to establish a presence in an area where it hasn’t been in recent decades. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his cabinet last week: “We can see what an unstable region we live in, an area in which Iran is trying to take advantage of the situation that has arisen and broaden its influence by transferring two warships via the Suez Canal.” The move “proves that the self-confidence and chutzpah of the Iranians are growing from day to day,” Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said. As the Trumpet has reported often, it is this “self-confidence and chutzpah” that will continue to define Iran’s foreign policy. The fact that the interim Egyptian leadership will now give it a free pass through the Suez will only embolden Tehran further.
Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad has proposed forming a unity government with Hamas in which the Islamist group would continue ruling Gaza. “The security concept practiced by Hamas in the Gaza Strip should be brought under an official framework because it is not different from what is practiced by the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank,” Fayyad told Palestinian journalists on Monday. Fayyad’s proposal therefore would not mean much change on the ground, but could lead to reconciliation between the two groups. This would only increase the danger they pose to Israel.
Europe
The German media have been castigating Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg this week over incorrectly cited material in his doctoral thesis. The most surprising aspect of the whole fiasco, however, is its effect on the baron’s popularity. Before the scandal, 68 percent of those surveyed said they were happy with Guttenberg’s political work. Now, 73 percent approve. Twenty-four percent say that he should step down. Seventy-two percent want him to stay. His alma mater, the University of Bayreuth, has withdrawn his doctorate, saying that his thesis “was not the result of correct scientific work,” after Guttenberg asked it to do so. It did not, however, accuse Guttenberg of plagiarism. This hasn’t stopped the press of course. This scandal continues a pattern from Guttenberg’s earlier troubles. The German media—especially the English-language media—are quick to attack Guttenberg. But don’t be fooled by the flood of negative headlines—he is still very popular with the German people. The German Army has begun a “media war to influence public opinion,” German-Foreign-Policy.com reported on February 17. “It calls on the ‘opinion makers’ in German society to win over the public for Bundeswehr public relations purposes,” it writes. The objective is to create a collective national mindset in support of sending German troops into active combat once again. Watch for Guttenberg to continue to build the German Army into a war-making machine.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling Christian Democratic Party (cdu) did terribly in its first local election of the year on February 20 in the northern city of Hamburg. Not only does the Social Democratic Party (spd) now govern the city-state for the first time in 10 years, but it received enough votes, 48.3 percent, to do so without the aid of a coalition partner—a rarity in Germany. The cdu received an all-time low amount of votes—21.9 percent. The cdu blames its defeat on local issues. However, political scientist at the Free University of Berlin Gero Neugebauer said, “The Hamburg election is a severe blow to Merkel’s conservatives at a federal level. The cdu is losing many of its core voters in the center to the Social Democrats and smaller opposition parties—and as the economy improves, voters are switching to the spd on the big issues, like education and family policy.” Merkel’s stance on the euro is losing her a lot of votes. Bloomberg news titled its article on the election: “Euro Gets Cold Shoulder at Ballot Box of Outrage.” This election was the first of many that Merkel’s party will have to fight this year. This will make her far less willing to compromise with indebted nations. It may also cause the cdu to look for another leader. And the ever-popular baron from its sister party, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, may be the man for the job.
Greece may need another bailout by 2013, a group of leading European economists warned on February 22. The European Economic Advisory Group warned that Greece will probably not be able to raise money on the financial markets once its rescue package runs out. It recommended that Greece take dramatic steps to solve its problems: either introducing even harsher austerity measures or leaving the euro. Watch for a group of 10 core European nations to emerge out of this financial crisis, as other nations are forced into ruin by the euro, just as Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry wrote about in his February article “A Monumental Moment in European History!”
The European Central Bank (ecb) on February 22 called for the European Commission to surrender its powers to intervene in the disciplining of nations that have broken the eurozone’s budgetary rules. The ecb wants automatic sanctions for countries with excessive deficits. Automatic sanctions would put more short-term pressure on EU nations, as the ones in trouble would have to pay fines. This means they would have to go to Germany for assistance—assistance that would come at a price.
Asia
China announced on Wednesday that it will refuse to allow publication of a UN Security Council report that accuses North Korea of violating nuclear sanctions. On January 27, the Security Council’s panel of experts on North Korea submitted the report to the organization’s sanctions committee, which monitors Pyongyang’s compliance with the UN sanctions levied on it after it tested nuclear weapons in 2006 and 2009. The report says that North Korea’s uranium enrichment program and its development of a light-water reactor are glaring violations of the UN sanctions. The document was based in part on information from U.S. nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker, who toured North Korea in November 2010 and viewed around 2,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges. The report says it is almost certain that North Korea has several more clandestine enrichment-related facilities. China, which is one of the Security Council’s five veto-wielding permanent members, told organization representatives that it would block the report’s publication and delivery to the full Council. Beijing wishes for the report to contain as few details as possible about Hecker’s tour of North Korea and of the panel’s assessments, and is the only member opposed to publishing the report. This is not the first time China has vetoed a Council decision as it becomes bolder in protecting rogue nations like North Korea, and it’s not likely to be the last.
Beijing will not succumb to the type of popular uprisings that are sweeping through the Middle East, Zhao Qizhend, former head of China’s information office, said on Thursday. The comment represents Beijing’s most senior statement so far in response to online messages urging “Jasmine Revolution” uprisings in China. “There won’t be any Jasmine Revolution in China,” Zhao said. So far, protests in China have been small but stubborn, and have been met by a campaign of arrests and censorship. Beijing has a skill for harnessing domestic discontent and channeling it outward against China’s enemies. Zhao is right in saying that China’s ruling Communist Party faces little risk of being toppled by uprisings like those rocking authoritarian governments across the Middle East.
Africa/Latin America
The Nigerian Defense Ministry recently pledged its determination to renew military ties with Germany. According to a news article published in the Nigerian Tribune this week, Defense Minister Prince Adetokunbo Kayode announced his determination to renew his country’s partnership with the German Technical Adviser Group. This is an elite group of German soldiers working to train Nigerian military personnel in various technical fields. It has successfully installed a workshop in Nigeria’s Mogadishu Barrack, where military officers are given mechanical and electrical course work designed to enhance their operational efficiency in peacekeeping, law enforcement and national defense. Some foreign affairs analysts rank Nigeria as one of Africa’s three most geopolitically important nations. As Egypt’s fate determines the stability of Northern Africa and South Africa’s fate determines the stability of sub-Saharan Africa, so Nigeria’s fate determines the stability of the oil-rich nations surrounding the Gulf of Guinea. This fact is not lost on Germany’s political leaders, who have taken great pains to develop bilateral relations with Nigeria through arms exports and military training programs.
South Africa joined Brazil, Russia, India and China this week as the newest member of the bric economic alliance. While South Africa is not nearly as economically prosperous as the other four members in the alliance, it is the most prosperous country in sub-Saharan Africa, generating approximately one third of the gdp of the whole region. South African President Jacob Zuma pointed out at a meeting with the heads of the bric member states last spring that his nation can be viewed as a sort of representative for the whole African continent. Perhaps this is why Russia and China consented to South Africa’s admission. By allowing Pretoria into the bric alliance, Moscow and Beijing have ensured that they will have a voice in sub-Saharan affairs.
In Latin America, China’s Shanghai Stock Exchange inked an agreement this week with Brazil’s bm&f Bovespa. The Brazilian side said the purpose of the deal was to initiate a common discussion about business opportunities and exchange information. Initially, Brazil was looking to establish cross-listing between the two exchanges, but it doesn’t appear this agreement will go quite that far in its initial stages. This deal is the latest in a series of tie-ups between the world’s leading stock exchanges and could lead to much closer ties between China and Brazil. As competition for the world’s natural resources gets hotter, mineral-rich nations like South Africa and Brazil will become a prime target for growing superpowers like China.
Meanwhile, the reach of Los Zetas, a leading Mexican drug-trafficking organization, is spreading south into Central America. According to an article in the Guardian this week, Salvadorian Defense Minister General David Munguía Payés has publicly stated that Los Zetas was operating within his country. It is estimated that some 35,000 people have died in Mexico alone as a result of drug-cartel-related violence since President Felipe Calderón declared war on organized crime in 2006. The announcement that Los Zetas is spreading south into Central America means that the extreme levels of violence being witnessed in Mexico might soon encompass other Latin American nations. El Salvador has one of the world’s highest murder rates and the Guatemalan capital is currently experiencing more than 40 murders a week. No amount of money or security clamp-downs will stop this violence. The scourge of drug-cartel-related violence will only be solved when people learn to stop looking to drugs as a means of escapism and start looking to God’s law as the solution to their problems.
Anglo-America
“We may well be witnessing New Zealand’s darkest day,” Prime Minister John Key said on Tuesday. Key was reacting to a 6.3-magnitude earthquake that struck Christchurch during the lunch hour. The epicenter was only 2.5 miles beneath the surface and only three miles from the city, causing massive shaking and catastrophic damage. The quake was followed by two aftershocks of 5.6 and 5.5 magnitude. The city had sustained another 7.1-magnitude quake in September, which fractured buildings, many of which collapsed completely on Tuesday. Scenes of devastation showed buses and cars crushed under falling concrete. The death toll is over 100 and expected to climb higher with more than 200 people still missing. The government has declared a state of emergency and soldiers have been deployed for search and rescue as well as to help maintain order. Officials have asked people to stay at home and conserve food and water supplies. Large swaths of the city are underwater after major water main breaks. Some parts of the city suffered liquefaction, in which the soggy ground turned into quicksand due to the shaking. Manchester Street looks like a war zone. As the people in New Zealand begin to fathom the terrible disaster inflicted upon them, it is important we remember that such catastrophes are the result of mankind choosing its own way in rebellion against God.
The Wisconsin legislature is deadlocked this week after Democratic state senators left town to prevent a vote on a new bill to shore up the state’s budget deficit. The bill would restrict collective-bargaining rights for public employees and require them to contribute 5.8 percent of their salaries to pension costs; they pay nothing now. They would also have to pay 12 percent of their health-care premiums instead of the current 6 percent. Unions have held large demonstrations inside the capitol, and rather than lose a vote on the bill, Democrat state senators went to Illinois to prevent a quorum and stall the vote. This is a giant wake-up call to a broke nation trying to spend its way to prosperity. Despite all the fuss, Gov. Scott Walker’s budget cuts will only save the state at best $300 million, over the next two years, out of a projected $3.6 billion deficit. Legislators circumventing legislation and citizens refusing to give up single-digit percentages to stave off collective financial ruin bode ill for the future. Greed in general is destroying America. As Herbert Armstrong wrote, “‘Get’ seems to have got us all! The ‘get’ incentive is the root cause of all the world’s troubles and evils.”
With unrest in Libya causing uncertainty in the future of its oil supplies, the price per barrel for Brent oil approached $120 a barrel on Thursday before receding. This spike in the cost of oil has caused the national price for a gallon of gasoline in the United States to jump by almost a nickel this week. Experts are predicting that fuel prices are likely to rise even higher as rising crude oil costs are passed on to consumers at the pump. It is estimated that every $1 cost increase for a barrel of crude oil equates to a 2.4 cent increase for a gallon of gasoline. Increase in the cost of gasoline burdens the economy and slows the pace of hiring; according to economist Brian Bethune at ihs Global Insight, a $10 increase in the price of crude oil shaves off roughly 0.4 percent from the economic growth rate. Fuel shortages, unemployment and economic malaise are the perfect recipe for civil unrest in America and elsewhere. Bloomberg also said the specter of stagflation is a risk and the oil uncertainty put the U.S. economic recovery at risk.
American President Barack Obama has decided that the Defense of Marriage Act—the 1996 law that bars federal recognition of same-sex “marriages”—is unconstitutional. Attorney General Eric Holder announced this decision in a letter to members of Congress on Wednesday. The Defense of Marriage Act cannot actually be repealed without the approval of either the United States court system or Congress, but the executive branch of the government has now officially embraced the legality of homosexual “marriage.”
The British government made a similar decision this week. United Kingdom government statistics will no longer state whether a woman was married or not at the time that she became pregnant, according to a Daily Mail report published on Wednesday. Instead they will state whether she was in a “legal partnership.” This means that women who are married and women in a homosexual relationship with a civil partner will be in the same category. This comes eight years after the then Labor government ordered that the term “marriage” should not be used on official documents as it discriminated against homosexuals.
