Will Saudi Arabia’s “day of rage” lead to an Egypt-style revolution? Oil is skyrocketing and unrest in the Middle East continues to grow. If tensions explode, oil prices could reach $500 a barrel. What does the future hold for Saudi Arabia?

Last Thursday, Brent crude rose to almost $120 per barrel—nearing levels that could thrust the global economy back into chaos.

And nowhere is the worry more intense than in Europe. Last week, due to the revolution under way in Libya, crude oil exports from there came to a virtual halt. The anxiety was audible among European leaders. More than one fifth of Italy’s oil came from Libya and now may have to be found elsewhere. Sixteen percent of France’s, 12 percent of Spain’s and 8 percent of Germany’s comes from—or used to come from—that North African country.

As Joel Hilliker wrote last week: If “Islamists taking over the Suez Canal [and its oil conduits] made Europe nervous, chaos in Libya is giving it apoplexy.”

The Middle East crisis “shows the extreme fragility of the global system,” says Jeremy Leggett, a leader of the UK industry task force on energy security. “People don’t realize how close we are to a potential precipice …. Governments need to draw up emergency plans and get cracking on proactive measures.”

Global spare capacity is at razor-thin margins, and when supply suddenly disappears, it means that somebody goes without. Wars have been fought over such issues.

According to Barclays, the world now faces “lasting unease in the oil markets.” Oil could easily shoot to $220 a barrel if Algeria stops production too, warns Nomura bank’s oil specialist Michael Lo.

What this means for Europe is that it will have no choice but to look elsewhere for other more reliable energy partners. Since Europe has already experienced Russian energy blackmail, only one other country has both the resources and the purported spare capacity to make up the difference: Saudi Arabia.

But is trusting the Saudis a good bet?

The Saudis say they have the extra capacity. On February 22, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi promised to increase output to compensate for Libyan shortfalls.

Promises are one thing, but it is actions and events that eventually dictate price.

Last week, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah announced that he would immediately disburse an extra $36 billion worth of benefits to his people in an attempt to mollify public sentiment and stop the wave of Arab uprisings. Over the next three years, he pledged an incredible $400 billion to improve education, infrastructure and health care. But with the price of Brent crude still trading well above $100, some traders at least think the country is still a significant risk.

Even a hint that all is not well in Saudi Arabia could send the price of oil into the stratosphere. $220 oil would seem like a bargain.

And Saudi Arabia’s “Egypt moment” may be approaching. A Facebook site out of Saudi Arabia calling for a “day of rage” on March 11 continues to grow, and has seen its subscribers balloon from 400 to 12,000 in recent days, according to the Telegraph. Social networking sites have been blamed for enabling protesters to organize in Egypt and Libya.

Making the situation in Saudi Arabia even more unpredictable is the segregated nature of the nation. The ruling power for the House of Saud comes from its Sunni religious base centered in Medina, Mecca and the west. But most of its money and virtually all of its oil resources are located far into the eastern, Shiite-dominated areas near the border of the tiny kingdom of Bahrain.

Plus, Iran’s rising star is energizing Shiite populations throughout the region. This is what has oil investors so worried. Empowered by the wave of revolutions, Shiite masses in many countries feel their time has come and their era is now.

Bahrain looks especially susceptible to fifth-column uprisings led by Iranian-sponsored elements—and this too could have implications for Saudi’s Shiite-surrounded oil fields.

The 200-year-old Sunni monarchy in Bahrain is fighting to avoid a Egypt-style revolution also. It too has promised massive new spending initiatives to calm the crowds, but it appears that at the very least the Sunni stranglehold on power may be broken. People have been killed, and now exiled leader Hassan Mushaima, wanted for sedition, has announced plans to return next week in what may be a move to echo Ayatollah Khomeini’s return to dispose the shah of Iran 30 years ago.

WikiLeaked cables suggest that U.S. officials believe about a third of Bahrain’s Shiites take their spiritual guidance directly from clerics in Iran.

If the Shiites, who make up about 70 percent of Bahrain’s population, get power, the new “democracy” could push to ban America’s 5th Fleet from its base of operations in the kingdom. It would be a stunning blow to America’s ability to protect the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf.

According to the Telegraph, Iran is clearly hoping to bring Bahrain into its orbit. Just three years ago, an aide to Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei called for Bahrain to be absorbed into Iran as its 14th province.

The Saudis are “terrified” of contagion spilling over into their country and are doing everything possible to prevent a coup in Bahrain, according to Gary Sick, a former White House adviser on the Middle East.

If Bahrain’s monarchy were overthrown, it could in effect give Iran a province immediately adjacent to the biggest and most valuable oil fields in the world. Plus, it would give the ayatollahs a vice-like grip on both sides of the Persian Gulf with which to blackmail the world’s oil users.

This is something Saudi Arabia and Europe especially cannot permit to happen.

Biblical prophecy indicates that no matter the outcome in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia will not fall under Iranian domination.

Scripture indicates a coming clash between a European “king of the north” led by Germany and a Middle Eastern “king of the south” led by Iran. Prophecy says the king of the south will “push” at the king of the north, which will result in a counterinvasion by the European power. Although religion will be a primary motivator for the war, oil supplies will also play a critical role in that endeavor, especially as a tool for Iran to push with.

But here is where Saudi Arabia enters the picture. Psalm 83 talks about a group of Middle Eastern nations that ally themselves with an invading European power (referred to as Assur, which is another name for Assyria, or the German-led European Union today), but for the purpose of destroying Israel. This alliance includes Turkey (Edom), Syria (Hagarenes anciently dwelt in that area), Lebanon (Gebal), Jordan (Ammon) and Saudi Arabia (Ishmael).

Never in history has such an alliance taken place—this Psalm was written for the future, and will be fulfilled in our day.

But this prophecy also indicates by their absence what Middle East nations will not be allied with the king of the north but rather with the king of the south. Coupled with prophecy in Daniel 11 and other scriptures, we see that these nations include Egypt, Libya, Ethiopia, Iraq and of course Iran, which is the king of the south.

Because of these prophecies, we would not expect a mass revolution in Saudi Arabia that would reorient its current and future European-leaning politics in any meaningful way. That is not to say a revolution could not occur, or that Saudi Arabia’s oil production facilities could not be threatened—but if an uprising does occur it will not be the massive politically and ideologically altering kind such as we are witnessing in Egypt and Libya.

So in that sense, is Saudi Arabia’s “Egypt moment” looming? The answer is no.

For more information on the king of the south and the Psalm 83 alliance, read The King of the South and History and Prophecy of the Middle East.