UK Worse Off Than Portugal?

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UK Worse Off Than Portugal?

The UK is not as strong economically as you might think. It does have one advantage that Spain and Ireland do not. But this advantage may also be its Achilles heel.

The UK has the third-biggest budget deficit in Europe, according to EU statistics agency Eurostat. This means the UK is going further into debt faster than just about every other country. As a percentage of its economy, Britain needs to borrow more money than Spain, Italy and soon-to-be-bailed-out Portugal.

Only Ireland and Greece have a bigger budget shortfall.

Britain’s annual borrowing amounted to 10.4 percent of its gross domestic product last year. In other words, it added total debt equal to more than 10 percent of its economy.

Yet despite growing debt levels, there are two big reasons that Britain is faring better than other European countries. First, much of Britain’s debt was locked in long term before the 2008 economic crisis. This means that it does not have to repay much of it on a yearly basis. This has benefited taxpayers, because they are paying pre-crisis interest rates on much of the debt.

However, if Britain continues to add new debt at such an alarming rate, interest costs are sure to rise, and it could become much more difficult to borrow.

The second reason Britain is not in the same boat as Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain and other European states is that Britain is not a part of the eurozone. Britain has a greater ability to manage interest rates and also the ability to print money to pay its bills.

In times of debt crisis, countries often like to cheat creditors by devaluing their currencies and creating inflation. This increases the supply of money in the economy, reduces interest rates, and makes debt repayment easier.

This is what the UK has done. And in doing so it has helped stave off the debt collapse threatening other European countries.

However, there is always a price to be paid. There is no free lunch. In this case, the cost has been dumped on UK citizens—especially those who have saved money and those who are on fixed incomes.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the UK pound has been devalued by a massive 22 percent against the U.S. dollar. This fall in value is understated because America has also been devaluing the dollar over this time frame. Measured against commodities, pound devaluation is much more stark. In 2008, it took just 400 pounds to buy an ounce of gold. Today it takes over 900. In 2008 it took around 8 pounds to purchase an ounce of silver, today it requires almost 30 pounds.

The collective wealth of the British people has been destroyed to pay for the country’s debt. And there is much more paying ahead. All the measures taken by the government have only resulted in more debt for the nation. When the next crisis arrives, will the pound have to be destroyed to pay for it?

Britain’s debt problems could quickly become a currency crisis. If that happens, who will bail out the UK? Britain might wish it was Greece, or Ireland, or Portugal.