Portuguese Bailout Approved—What Next?

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Portuguese Bailout Approved—What Next?

EU finance ministers approved a €78 billion (us$111 billion) bailout for Portugal on May 16. The bailout requires Portugal to implement the austerity measures its parliament rejected in March. It will have to cut spending for 2012-2013 by 3.4 percent of gross domestic product and increase government revenue.

One third of this bailout will be provided by the International Monetary Fund (imf), another third will come from the European Financial Stabilization Mechanism and the rest will come from the eurozone’s €440 billion rescue fund. The imf will loan its money at an interest rate of 3.25 percent, but the loan from the EU will be more pricey—interest will be between 5.5 and 6 percent. The bailout program will last 7½ years.

With literally thousands of articles out there on Europe’s economy, what can you expect to happen in the European economy over the coming weeks and months? What trends should you watch? Here’s theTrumpet.com’s top picks:

German Opposition

Almost every article you read on the future of the euro agrees on one point: Germany will decide it. It pays the piper, so it calls the tune.

Germans are getting fed up with paying for the excesses and indiscretions of lazy southern Europeans—as they see it. Some even claim that German Chancellor Angela Merkel will be unable to get another bailout passed in the German parliament.

Frank Schäffler, a German member of parliament from Merkel’s junior coalition partner, the Free Democratic Party (fdp), claimed that 14 fdp MPs would oppose the European Stabilization Mechanism (esm)—Europe’s next weapon against bailouts. He also said another 30 to 40 coalition members would oppose it. If he is right—something that party leaders deny—then Merkel is in trouble. She only has a majority of 41.

Yet Europe wants even more German money. The European Financial Stability Fund is in theory meant to be able to lend out €440 billion, yet in reality it can only loan out €250 billion. EU officials have said they want it to be able to lend out the full €440 billion, and there has been some talk of going even further—to €780 billion. But the only countries that are able to put up this kind of cash without jeopardizing their own credit ratings are the six eurozone nations that still have a aaa credit rating. Germany is the biggest of these six, so expanding the fund would require even more money from Germany.

Even if Schäffler’s rebellion fails, Merkel cannot keep handing over money forever. Watch German public opinion to see if it becomes so anti-bailout that Merkel can no longer loan out more money.

Already some in Germany are talking about re-introducing the deutsche mark. If Germans grow fed up with the handouts, a more radical solution must be found, which could include setting up another currency, kicking out weaker eurozone members or Germany receiving a lot more control over eurozone nations.

Euroskeptic Opposition

Germany isn’t the only nation fed up with bailouts. Britain has long resented having to bail out eurozone nations when it doesn’t even use the euro. According to the Daily Mail, the cost of bailing out Portugal is the equivalent of £500 (us$808) per family in Britain.

Nations across Europe are fed up with seeing their governments cut their budgets only to give more money to the EU. The most high-profile of these is Finland, where True Finns—a populist Euroskeptic party, staunchly opposed to any more bailouts—won nearly 20 percent of the vote recently.

Although it refuses to take part in the government—because it approved Portugal’s bailout—True Finns has already left its mark on the country. Finland wants Portugal to sell off state assets to guarantee it can repay the loan. In future bailouts, it wants the recipients to offer state-owned businesses as collateral.

The Bible prophesies that a conglomerate of 10 nations or groups of nations will dominate Europe. Britain will not be part of it. Watch for the bailouts to push Britain, as well as other countries, to resent EU membership.

A Greek Default

European leaders insist that Greece is fine and won’t default. At least they do so in public. In private, according to Spiegel Online, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble arrived at a recent meeting with a document titled “German Background Document: Greece’s Withdrawal From the Monetary Union.”

And even officials are now admitting that they may have to “reprofile” Greece’s debt. This would mean negotiating with bond holders to extend the deadline by which Greece must pay off its debt.

But default is growing in popularity in Greece. A new movement in Greece called “I Won’t Pay” wants to leave the euro, refuse to recognize all government debts, and return to the drachma.

Greece could be either pushed or forced out of the euro. Both options are possible. Watch this trend closely. If Greece leaves the eurozone, why not other countries? This trend could soon see the eurozone shrink to a core group of nations as the Trumpet has been forecasting for years.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn

The arrest of imf head Dominique Strauss-Kahn shocked the world. It’s too early to say, but the shock waves could unbalance the euro. Even if he hadn’t been arrested, he was expected to step down soon. But now that he is poised for an ignominious exit, the rest of the world is questioning whether his successor should come from outside of Europe.

If this trend continues, it could have serious implications for Europe. If non-European nations demand a non-European head for the imf, it could indicate they are fed up with the imf bailing out European countries. This is another factor that could force the EU to stop bailing out indebted nations and instead look for a real solution to the problem.

“Super Mario”

Following the European finance ministers’ May 16 meeting, it seems certain that Mario Draghi will be the next head of the European Central Bank (ecb). Angela Merkel has now endorsed him, meaning he has enough support to cruise easily into that powerful role.

Draghi is Jesuit-educated and a devout Catholic. Trumpet columnist Ron Fraser writes that Draghi is a “dedicated Roman Catholic with connections that run deep within the global banking and finance community” and has “historic Vatican Bank and European Central Bank connections.”

Another important, long-term trend ties in here. The Trumpet has warned that the Vatican will soon get control of Europe, including Europe’s finances. Draghi’s nomination for head of the ecb is a step toward this.

The Unexpected

Don’t expect every major event in Europe to be on this list. The Trumpet analyzes news in the light of Bible prophecy. This prophecy reveals the broad trends and the ultimate direction that events in Europe are going in. A 10-nation bloc with a common currency and united military will emerge. Britain will not be part of that bloc. The Catholic Church will play a major role. We don’t know the exact details of the journey, but this is the destination.

For more information on these trends and where they are leading, read Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry’s recent article “A Monumental Moment in European History!