Pakistan Is Snubbing America. Does It Have Another Suitor?
Osama bin Laden’s death made one thing plain: The relationship between America and Pakistan has tanked.
Some high-ranking Pakistanis must have known America’s number one enemy was camped out, for years, in plain view—within walking distance of the Pakistan Military Academy, just outside the capital.
No surprise, then, that when Washington decided it was time to take bin Laden out, it didn’t even warn the Pakistani government about the raid. cia Director Leon Panetta said it didn’t want to “jeopardize the mission. They might alert the targets.” Ouch. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of America’s “ally” in the war on terror.
Pakistan “apologized” for harboring the terrorist mastermind—by berating the U.S. for not getting its permission to kill him. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani warned that future American raids within Pakistan could be repelled with “full force.” As if to prove it, just yesterday Pakistani troops fired at two nato helicopters that crossed into Pakistan’s airspace from Afghanistan.
So, this is where the relationship stands after America has gifted more than $18 billion in military and civilian aid to Pakistan over the last decade. Signs are that Pakistan has had enough and is ready to walk away.
Other signs show that this may be because it has another powerful suitor to take America’s place.
Yesterday, Gilani began a four-day visit to an old ally—one that, given his nation’s troubles with the U.S., is looking more relevant all the time: China.
Beijing is aggressively courting Pakistan right now. It expects America’s presence in the region to shrink soon, and it wants to fill the void—not only in Pakistan, but also in Afghanistan and other states in the neighborhood. So far its efforts look quite successful.
Last month, even before bin Laden was killed, a remarkable report emerged highlighting this trend. Prime Minister Gilani visited Afghanistan and, according to what Afghan officials later told the Wall Street Journal, he “bluntly told Afghan President Hamid Karzai that the Americans had failed them both.” The Washington Post said Pakistan’s position was “that the U.S. military strategy had no prospect for success, that its troops antagonized the region and that the Afghan government should avoid any agreement that allows long-term U.S. military bases in Afghanistan.” Does that sound like someone who wants to preserve his ties with Washington?
But here’s the kicker: Gilani then counseled Karzai to seek new allies—particularly China.
Clearly, Pakistan is preparing itself for the U.S. to fail in Afghanistan. But do you suppose Gilani would be so dismissive of Washington if he weren’t confident that China is able and willing to take its place?
These two countries are celebrating the 60th anniversary of their relationship by allowing it to blossom. China has agreed to invest up to $30 billion in Pakistan over the next five years. It exports significant military hardware there. It supports Pakistan’s nuclear power industry; in fact, it helped Pakistan become a nuclear power back in 1998.
After Osama bin Laden was captured, China became the only major power to stand up for Pakistan. In spite of the revelation of bin Laden’s whereabouts, Beijing praised Islamabad for being resolute in its fight against terrorism. Prime Minister Gilani responded by singling out China as Pakistan’s “all-weather friend.”
“For Pakistan, Beijing represents an uncritical friend ready to provide aid, investment and military assistance,” Associated Press reported yesterday. “To the leaders in Beijing, ties with Pakistan and other countries in its neighborhood offer a bigger diplomatic footprint, better access to resources and a larger stable of allies to challenge U.S. supremacy.”
This is important to realize: China’s courting of Pakistan fits with its larger strategy.
China is rapidly expanding its presence as an economic powerhouse in countries worldwide. It has leveraged its massive cash holdings to establish ties with needy but resource-rich nations, and to build and buy the infrastructure globally it needs in order to fuel its own meteoric growth. Since 85 percent of its trade is sea-based, one of its big pastimes has been to snap up ports and sea gates all over the world.
China particularly seeks greater strategic control over the Indian Ocean, the vital oceanic route to the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian Gulf, is one of Earth’s most strategic sea gates; 13 million barrels of Middle Eastern oil pass through it each day. China wants in—and Pakistan provides the perfect means.
Back in 2002, China broke ground on a joint project with Pakistan to build a major deep-sea port in the Pakistani coastal city of Gwadar. This became operational in 2008. Now the Chinese want to build an oil pipeline direct from there into their own Xinjiang region.
Gwadar has been called the “Chinese Gibraltar.” This port increases China’s trade access to the Middle East, Central Asia and Europe. When the project began, China tried to dispel anxiety among its rivals by insisting the port would only be used for trade. But as we wrote at the time, “Watch for the Chinese to piggyback military cooperation onto this important strategic venture when the time is right.”
Sure enough, now China is pouring technical and financial aid into expanding it into a naval base. From there, China could patrol the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. The Chinese Navy is establishing a presence on the Middle East’s doorstep.
Biblical prophecy speaks of a massive war—to shake this world very soon—in which an enormous pan-Asian army will march into the Middle East. Given the geography of the region, it seems Pakistan, including this key seaport, could come into play as a major staging point.
Evidence also suggests the possibility that, despite its Muslim majority, Pakistan could by that point be allied with that Asian behemoth, contributing not only its gateways but even its soldiers to the effort.
It certainly appears that America’s tattered alliance with Pakistan is all but over. The U.S. is fading; power is shifting eastward. And Islamabad is entertaining offers from another, more attractive suitor.
Watch closely. This appears to be yet another proof among many of the rapidly changing world order—the end of the Anglo-American era and the start of something radically different.