The Week in Review
Middle East
Egypt will permanently open its crossing into the Gaza Strip on Saturday, Cairo military officials announced on Wednesday. This will be a major security agreement breach with Israel; as part of the peace agreement following Israel’s Cast Lead operation four years ago, Egypt agreed to close its border to help stop Hamas from smuggling in weapons and bomb-making material from Egypt. Egypt’s Middle East News Agency said Egypt’s new military rulers are opening the Rafah crossing as a way to promote “national reconciliation” between Palestinians in Samaria and Gaza and “to end the status of the Palestinian division.” But the opening of Rafah also shows just how quickly the Egyptian-Israeli security agreement may be breaking down, and reveals how quickly Iranian-minded elements in Egypt are gaining power.
Deposed Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will stand trial for the murder of protesters and other crimes, Egypt’s prosecutor general announced on Tuesday. If convicted, the former president could face the death penalty. His sons, Gamal and Alaa, will also stand trial on the same charges. Hopes that Mubarak would be spared the indignity of such a trial were quashed by the reality of the new Egypt. Again, it appears the decision by Egypt’s rulers to indict the former president was at least partly prompted by the strong anti-Mubarak sentiment among the people. The charges were announced just days before tens of thousands of protesters were expected to rally in Cairo on Friday to demand tougher action against the Mubaraks.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil al-Araby was chosen by Arab League member states as the organization’s new secretary general on May 15. Egypt had switched its nomination at the last minute from former parliamentarian Mostafa al-Fiqqi, who had connections with the Mubarak regime, to Al-Araby, who is known for his nationalist and pan-Arab views and who has taken Egypt’s foreign policy in a decidedly anti-Israel direction in the short time he has been foreign minister. Several states and many Egyptians had been against Al-Fiqqi’s nomination. This is yet another example of Egypt’s new rulers appeasing anti-Israel forces. Al-Araby will take up his new post July 1.
On May 18, the Muslim Brotherhood submitted legal documents to the Political Parties Affairs Committee in order to register its new political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party. A Brotherhood leader said he expected the party to officially begin its activities on June 17. At the same time, the Media Line reports, other Islamist parties are emerging, with the “Islamic end of the political spectrum … growing crowded with fringe movements” that want to participate in September’s parliamentary elections. The Media Line reports that even though the Islamists enjoy broad support among Egyptians, they are taking great pains to present themselves as moderates to try to convince secularists—and the West—that they are not aiming for an Islamist takeover. The Safety and Development Party is one such example. This party was created by former members of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, a terrorist movement, and its leader is Kamal Al-Said Habib, who spent 10 years in prison for his involvement in the assassination of former President Anwar Sadat. Despite this résumé, the party declared that it would allow Coptic Christians and women to join. The Muslim Brotherhood is, of course, also downplaying its Islamist credentials, “playing a shrewd game to dispel its image as an extremist Islamist group,” as Stratfor says (May 19). Toward this end it has included Christians and women among its founding members. It has also made the ridiculous claim that the new party will have no actual ties to the Brotherhood.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned home Wednesday from a six-day visit to the United States. Setting the stage for tension between the two leaders, in a State Department speech Thursday of last week President Barack Obama explicitly endorsed—the first time ever by an American president—a Palestinian state along the 1967 lines, and also stated that a Palestinian state must be “contiguous.” On Sunday, Netanyahu met with Obama at the White House and on Wednesday he spoke before a joint session of the U.S. Congress in what was seen as a rebuff to the U.S. president’s stated peace policies. The trip demonstrated that the Netanyahu-Obama relationship is at a low point. We could soon witness the prophesied breaking of the historic brotherhood between America and the Jewish state. Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s strong stance in Washington was well received back home, with his approval ratings jumping by 13 points.
America will begin withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan this July, U.S. President Barack Obama said in his May 19 speech. In order to do so, the Washington Post reports that the U.S. has “accelerated direct talks with the Taliban.” The Taliban wants a guarantee that it will have a substantive role in the Afghan government, writes the Post. Additionally, around 1,740 Taliban militants have joined a reintegration program begun by the Afghan government nearly a year ago. Maulavi Isfandar is one who has been granted amnesty under the program. Isfandar oversaw the execution of Bibi Sanubar, an Afghan woman accused of having an affair, who was imprisoned, given 200 lashes and then shot, while a crowd looked on. Both Washington and Kabul seem willing to compromise with their former enemies in order to meet nato’s 2014 deadline for withdrawing from Afghanistan.
Iran tested its new Qiyam 1 ballistic missile on Sunday and has delivered it to its elite Revolutionary Guard. The new rocket reportedly was designed to better evade detection than previous models and is thought to have a range of a few hundred kilometers. Some Qiyams, first produced in 2010, are thought to have already reached Hezbollah. Israeli defense analysts believe the new Qiyam is likely intended for delivery to Hezbollah also.
Fighting escalated in Yemen this week with fears of civil war rising as forces trying to topple President Ali Abdullah Saleh clash with forces loyal to the government. Violence in the capital, Sana’a, has killed more than a hundred since Monday as fighters loyal to tribal leader Sadiq al-Ahmar try to take over government buildings. They have laid siege to at least nine government ministries, and government forces have responded with mortars and shelling. The violence has prompted civilians to flee the capital by the hundreds and has resulted in serious shortages of food and fuel. Saleh has vowed not to step down or allow Yemen to become a “failed state” and a haven for al Qaeda. “I will not leave power and I will not leave Yemen,” he said in a statement.
Europe
Spain’s regional elections resulted in a massive defeat for Spain’s ruling Socialist Workers’ Party on May 22. The conservative People’s Party gained a 10 percent lead—gaining power in 9 out of 17 regional governments, and winning 36 out of 50 mayoral races. This puts it in a good position for Spain’s general election that will be held by March 2012. If the People’s Party wins, it will be a boon for the Catholic Church. Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s government clashed with the church when it legalized homosexual “marriage,” allowed abortion on demand and made divorce easier. But the church’s fortunes could soon change. The People’s Party is more closely aligned with the Catholics, and it has promised to repeal the abortion law. The Catholic Church is trying to regain its lost influence across Europe. Watch this trend in Spain and the rest of the Continent.
Young protesters gathered across several cities in Spain on May 15. The protests continued for several days, despite a ban on protests before elections. Youth unemployment in Spain is around 40 percent. The movement has already been heralded as Europe’s equivalent of the Arab Spring. Spain is not the only EU state with very high youth unemployment—Greece’s is 33.5 percent, Ireland’s and Italy’s both 28 percent and Portugal’s and France’s above 20 percent. This type of youth movement has the potential to spread across Europe.
Asia
Islamabad announced last Saturday that Beijing had agreed to Pakistan’s request for China to take over operations at Gwadar port. “The Chinese government has acceded to Pakistan’s request to take over operations at Gwadar port as soon as the terms of agreement with the Singapore Port Authority (spa) expire,” Pakistani Defense Minister Chaudhry Ahmad Mukhtar said. Mukhtar said Islamabad is grateful that Beijing has agreed to operate the port, but would be more thankful “if a naval base is constructed at the site of Gwadar for Pakistan.” Mukhtar also said Pakistan asked China for a loan to pay for 4,400-ton frigates and requested that Beijing train Pakistan’s forces in submarine operations. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman denied that China had agreed to take over operations at Gwadar—perhaps in an effort to avoid fueling tensions with India, which fears Chinese encirclement. China has invested heavily in the Gwadar port since construction on it first began, and the rapidly warming relationship between Pakistan and China gives Beijing great influence over the port. The port, 240 miles from the Strait of Hormuz, is the most important oil choke point on the globe, and besides giving Beijing key naval capability in the Arabian Sea, the Gwadar port also grants China a crucial transit terminal for oil coming from Africa and the Persian Gulf, which equates to 40 percent of the world’s total seaborne traded oil. Zia Haider of the Stimson Center says the strategic Gwadar hub also provides China with a “listening post” from where it is able to “monitor U.S. naval activity in the Persian Gulf, Indian activity in the Arabian Sea, and future U.S.-Indian maritime cooperation in the Indian Ocean.” Pakistan’s cozying up to China is another sign of the radically shifting world order.
China is prepared to bolster the strength of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (sco) in the face of terrorism and other security threats, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng said on Wednesday. Established in 2001, the sco is made up of six member countries: China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. “China is willing to continue stepping up its exchange and cooperation with the other (sco) member countries in terms of defense and security … and make joint efforts with them to improve our ability to combat the ‘three evil forces’ (of terrorism, separatism and extremism) and other new threats and challenges,” Geng said. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is growing in power and influence, and its development is an indication of a rising Asian superpower.
The performance of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at the fourth trilateral summit between China, South Korea and Japan on May 22 reveals that Beijing is on a charm offensive with Seoul and Tokyo. In his speech at the summit, Wen steered clear of any controversy and was resolutely optimistic about relations between the three Asian nations, positing proposals to boost ties between them. Wen proposed a significant trade boost, saying Beijing is “ready to promote with the greatest sincerity” progress toward a China-Japan-South Korean free-trade zone. He also called for the three nations to increase investment cooperation and to collaborate in renewable energy sectors. Finally, Wen proposed a boost in trilateral cooperation in dealing with disasters and post-disaster projects. China’s charm offensive means the U.S. cannot expect to maintain regional influence in Asia without exerting constant effort. As America is increasingly distracted by conflicts in Afghanistan and the Middle East, expect more and more Asian nations to succumb to China’s advances.
Africa/Latin America
Kenya is preparing to recognize Somaliland’s independence from Somalia, which would create another new country in the Horn of Africa, according to claims made on Sunday by the Somaliland Press. “Kenyan Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs Richard Onyonka said during an event held in Nairobi to commemorate Somaliland’s 20th anniversary of independence that his country will support Somaliland as an independent state,” reported Somaliland Press and Iran’s Press tv. Kenyans who are calling for their government to recognize Somaliland argue that its independence would help stabilize the region and stop Somalia’s dreams of expansion into Kenya and eastern Ethiopia. Expect violence in the Horn of Africa, however, to push the region further into the arms of Iran and radical Islam. Bible prophecy predicts that Ethiopia will soon be allied with Iran, the end-time “king of the south.”
The Union of South American Nations (unasur) made great progress this week in becoming more like its European Union role model. A report published by United Press International on Tuesday revealed that unasur leaders met in Lima, Peru, last week and issued a declaration calling for the region to pursue a common methodology in monitoring defense expenditures among member nations. Latin America remains a major customer for global defense suppliers and there are now calls for unasur to become more militarily integrated. Expect South America to continue looking to Europe for guidance as it integrates economically, politically and militarily.
Anglo-America
Britain is the third-least family-friendly country in Europe, according to a study by the Relationships Foundation, a UK-based think tank that aims to strengthen social connections. Its study looked at 25 indicators showing financial pressures, work pressures, caring and parenting pressures, and living environment. The only countries that did worse than Britain in this study were Romania and Bulgaria. It found that 20.9 percent of UK households with dependent children experienced “difficulty” or “great difficulty” in making ends meet. Fourteen percent of households in the UK, as well as in Germany, suffered under “highly critical” debt burdens, whereas only 1 percent of Swedish, Finnish and Norwegian households claimed to be in the same position. The study also stated that Britain has the third-worst living environment in Europe. The report states, “In teen drinking the UK was once again in the ‘high pressure’ group with 47 percent of 15-year-olds having been drunk at least twice.” These statistics show that family life is becoming more difficult in the UK.
The number of abortions being carried out in England and Wales has increased by 8 percent since 2000. Last year, over 20,000 women under the age of 25 had a repeat abortion. Of those abortions, 3,718 were for girls under 16—a slight decrease from the year before.
British Prime Minister David Cameron has once again backed marriage as the solution to Britain’s social problems. “I think families are immensely important,” he said in a speech on May 23. “I am pro-commitment, I back marriage and I think it’s a wonderfully precious institution. Strong families are where children learn to become responsible people.” However, statistics show that Cameron has a long way to go to strengthen Britain’s society.
Only 3 out of 10 British teenagers who left school by age 18 are now in work and the remainder are at risk of never finding a job, minister for work and pensions, Iain Duncan Smith, said in a speech on May 19. Nearly one in four families in Scotland don’t include a working person; for the UK as a whole, the figure is one in five, said Smith at a youth unemployment seminar in Scotland. “We know that almost 200,000 young people left school between 2002 and 2006 and have still never held regular work since,” he stated. “[I]f we lose young people early we risk losing them for good. … This is the lost generation.” In December 2010, 20.3 percent of under-25-year-olds were unemployed—the highest level since British records began. This contrasts with the 1999 unemployment rate for 18-to-24-year-olds of 12.5 percent. Older workers, on the other hand, are in great demand, with pensioner employment increasing by 100,000 over the past year. The reason for the dire state of youth unemployment in Britain comes down to young people’s unemployability. The problem is largely an educational system that is churning out young people with neither the abilities nor the drive to survive in the competitive international environment.
The United States hit its legal borrowing limit on Monday. The Treasury Department said that Congress must raise the debt ceiling by August 2 if the government is to avoid a default. The Obama administration is trying to hammer out a deal with lawmakers to cut federal spending in exchange for a debt-limit increase. The federal debt currently stands at $14.3 trillion. Most people have trouble conceptualizing this amount, but if such an amount was made into a single stack of $1,000 bills, it would be more than 900 miles tall. If the pile were made with $1 bills, it would stretch to the moon and back twice. Once the world wakes up to the magnitude of the American government’s debt, the dollar’s day as the world’s reserve currency will be finished.
The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday ordered California to release tens of thousands of prisoners in an attempt to relieve overcrowded prisons. Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, speaking for the court majority, said California’s prisons had “fallen short of minimum constitutional requirements” because of overcrowding. Speaking for the minority, Justice Antonin Scalia called the ruling “staggering” and “absurd.” He added that “terrible things are sure to happen as a consequence of this outrageous order” to release “46,000 happy-go-lucky felons.” This mass release of prisoners may be a prelude to a prophesied wave of mass rioting and social breakdown.
