The United States said on Saturday that it will not side with any party in conflicts over the disputed Spratly islands, which means the Philippines cannot rely on its most powerful ally if the rising tensions with China escalate into a war.

The U.S.’s statement was a reaction to a comment from Manila earlier in the day expressing confidence in Washington’s willingness to assist the Philippines in the event of a military conflict between Beijing and Manila. The statement from the Philippines was based on the expectation that the U.S. would honor the Mutual Defense Treaty (mdt) that has existed between Washington and Manila for 60 years.

But the U.S. responded by saying it will not get involved in disputes over the potentially resource-rich Spratly islands.

“The U.S. does not take sides in regional territorial disputes,” said U.S. press attaché Rebecca Thompson in an e-mailed statement. While the statement said Washington “shares a number of national interests with the international community in the South China Sea,” it did not mention the Philippines or the mdt.

Washington and Manila signed the mdt on Aug. 13, 1951, with both sides declaring “publicly and formally their sense of unity and their common determination to defend themselves against external armed attack.”

The Philippines has accused China of intruding into Philippine territory six times in the last four months, charges that Beijing has dismissed as rumors. In recent months, Manila has referred to the South China Sea as the West Philippine Sea in an effort to amplify its claims to parts of the Spratly islands. Such boldness was built on the assumption that the U.S. had Manila’s back. Manila might regret such moves in light of the U.S.’s declaration that it would not take sides in the matter.

Vietnam

The Philippines is not the only Asian nation that has been prompted by China’s increasingly assertive Spratly island claims to get more aggressive and to call upon the U.S. for help.

On Sunday, Vietnam, which also claims parts of the Spratly islands, called upon the U.S. to assist in resolving the rising tensions. Over the weekend, several hundred Vietnamese staged anti-China protests, and Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry said Hanoi would “welcome” foreign assistance to maintain stability, in an apparent reference to the United States, which enraged Beijing last year by offering to mediate South China Sea spats.

On Monday, Vietnam’s navy held live-fire drills 25 miles off the coast of central Vietnam.

A regional security expert at Beijing’s National Defense University said Vietnam’s naval drills were an intentional provocation. “This is calculated to provoke a reaction in China which they can then dismiss as aggressive,” said the expert, who declined to be named on grounds that he was not authorized to speak to foreign media.

If such moves from the Philippines and Vietnam are designed to anger Beijing, the method is likely to work. It’s not difficult to see why smaller nations would want to agitate China. While Beijing insists that the South China Sea disputes be resolved on a strictly bilateral basis, these smaller nations would prefer multilateral negotiations. If China continues to be belligerent, the U.S. and the international community may be more likely to intervene and assist the weaker countries.

“These countries felt they were comparatively weak and would like to introduce the external forces to balance China,” said Zhao Gancheng, Southeast Asian affairs expert at Shanghai’s Institutes for International Studies.

As America’s will to stabilize Asia steadily wanes, expect the Philippines, Vietnam and other Asian nations to abandon the sinking U.S. ship and set aside their intercontinental skirmishes. This shift will lead to the establishment of a colossal Asian power bloc and the approach of the most hope-filled event in history! To understand more, read Russia and China in Prophecy.