Global Economy on the Brink

Javier Soriano/AFP/Getty Images

Global Economy on the Brink

Astute observers see that a financial super-storm is nearly here!

Policy-makers find themselves in the position of a driver heading down the outside lane of a motorway who suddenly finds that none of his controls are working: no accelerator, no brakes and a faulty steering wheel.
Peter Oborne
America’s debt has been downgraded. The eurozone is struggling to stay afloat. As several journalists and economists point out, the global economy is on the brink of collapse.

“Certain years have gone down in history as great global turning points, after which nothing was remotely the same: 1914, 1929, 1939, 1989,” wrote the Telegraph’s political editor, Peter Oborne, on August 6. “Now it looks horribly plausible that 2011 will join their number. The very grave financial crisis that has hung over Europe ever since the banking collapse of three years ago has taken a sinister turn, with the most dreadful and sobering consequences for those of us who live in European democracies.” He continued:

The events of the past few days have been momentous: The eurozone sovereign debt crisis has escaped from the peripheries and spread to Italy and Spain; parts of the European banking system have frozen up; U.S. treasuries have been stripped of their aaa rating, which may be the beginning of a process that leads to the loss of the dollar’s vital status as the world’s reserve currency.There have been warnings that we may be in for a repeat of the calamitous events of 2008. The truth, however, is that the situation is potentially much bleaker even than in those desperate days after the closure of Lehman Brothers. Back then, policy-makers had at their disposal a whole range of powerful tools to remedy the situation which are simply not available today.

This time around, governments can’t lower interest rates—they are near zero already, Oborne writes. China can no longer step in to help prop up the system. And governments can no longer bail anyone out—that will push them into bankruptcy.

“The consequence is terrifying,” writes Oborne. “Experience, skill and a prodigious amount of luck are required if a grave accident is to be averted. Unfortunately, it is painfully apparent that none of these qualities are available: Western leaders are out of their depth.” He continues:

Wake up: The eurozone is very close to collapse. It will come as no surprise if some Italian and Spanish banks are forced to close their doors in the course of the next few weeks. Indeed, British holidaymakers on the Continent should be advised to take care: Hold only the minimum of the local currency, and treat with especial suspicion euro notes coded Y, S and M (signifying they were printed in Greece, Italy and Portugal respectively). Take plenty of dollars with you, which shopkeepers will certainly accept if there is a run on the banks, or if euros suddenly cease to be legal currency. The precautions may not prove necessary, but there is no point in taking risks.

On Sunday the European Central Bank (ecb) indicated that it would start buying Spanish and Italian bonds, to stop the two nations sliding toward bankruptcy. This comes after Italy acceded to the ecb’s demands that it accelerate its austerity plans. So the ecb is now telling Italy what to do.

But, as the Telegraph’s international business editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes: “Eurogeddon is postponed again. Jean-Claude Trichet has saved civilization. There will not be a spiraling bond crisis in Italy and Spain in early August after all. An imminent disintegration of Europe’s financial system has been averted.” But, Evans-Pritchard points out, the ecb will only prop Italy and Spain up for about three weeks before it has spent so much money that those in control will not let it lend any more.

For years the Trumpet has warned that a financial super-storm is coming. Already the more astute observers can see it building. This same storm, we have warned, will shake Europe, and the single currency will come close to failure. But out of the dust of this storm will rise a new, radically different Europe, dominated by a 10-nation superstate.