As the United States works to cut up to a trillion dollars from its defense budget over the next 10 years, China steadily intensifies both its large-scale military buildup and its belligerence. Japan, Thailand and other Asian nations are responding to the shift in Asia’s power balance in one of two ways: defensively or realistically.

Beijing Flexes Naval Muscle

In recent months, China’s People’s Liberation Army (pla), the world’s largest armed force, has unveiled new conventional and strategic missiles, precise anti-satellite weaponry, new ballistic missiles for targeting ships at sea and, most recently, aircraft carriers.

On August 10, China’s first aircraft carrier, the Varyag, left its shipyard in the northeast of the country to begin its first sea trial. Although Beijing has downplayed the capability of the refurbished Russian warship, saying it would be used only for “scientific research, experiment and training,” analysts say its purpose is more about projecting China’s power.

The Wall Street Journal’s Jeremy Page said despite the Varyag’s limitations, its launch “sends a powerful message both to China’s domestic audience, for whom a carrier has for decades been equated with national strength, and to the U.S. and its regional allies, many of whom are embroiled in territorial disputes with Beijing.” Page continued:

It is the most potent symbol yet of China’s long-term desire to develop the power both to deny U.S. naval access to Asian waters and to protect its global economic interests, including shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean and oil sources in the Middle East. Its launch is thus seen as a milestone in relations between an ascendant China, bent on reclaiming its historical role as a global power, and a debt-ridden U.S. that wants to retain the military supremacy it has wielded in Asia since 1945.

And the Varyag is not the only aircraft carrier in the works for Beijing. Last week, an unnamed Chinese official said Beijing is also developing two additional warships of its own design, and some reports say China has as many as six aircraft carriers at various phases of development.

Highest Tensions Since the Cold War

The launch of the Varyag and news of China’s other aircraft carrier plans has added to tensions which have “risen in the past two or three months, probably to a higher level than they’ve been at since the end of the Cold War,” according to Ian Storey of Singapore’s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (emphasis added throughout).

Since 2000, China’s military spending has increased by an average of 15 percent, and, after 10 years of charm offensive in Southeast and East Asia, Beijing is behaving with increasing aggression in its claims of ownership over almost the entire South China Sea, parts of which several other nations claim sovereignty over.

Since spring, China has harassed half a dozen Philippine boats, and has deliberately severed two of the cables of Vietnam’s survey vessels. In June, a Chinese vice foreign minister warned that the U.S. was at risk of getting swept into a regional conflict if it did not work to restrain other Asian nations. “I believe that individual countries are actually playing with fire. I hope that fire will not be drawn to the United States,” he said. In July, the pla’s chief of the general staff publicly criticized Washington’s military spending, surveillance operations near China, and joint drills with the Philippines and Vietnam, calling the exercises “ill timed.”

China is not content with the status quo in Asia, and it is beginning to display its ambitions of regional supremacy more and more defiantly.

Japan’s Defensive Response

Japan is responding to China’s blustering by bolstering its own defense forces and cautioning the world. In its annual defense report released earlier this month, Tokyo said, “Given the modernization of China’s naval and air forces in recent years, its sphere of influence is likely to grow beyond its neighboring waters.” The report called China’s future direction a “source of concern” and voiced anxiety over what it called the “opaqueness” of China’s military budget. The defense budget China publicly announces “is widely seen as only part of what Beijing actually spends for military purposes,” the report cautioned.

Tokyo is not alone in believing that the People’s Republic of China (prc) is militarily capable of more than it reveals to the world.

Writing for the World Tribune on August 11, Russian author and analyst Lev Navrozov says, “As a totalitarian society, prc is a military camp, in which everyone is a soldier. It is easier in such a society to conceal the building of new weapons or pursuing a secret military agenda.” Navrozov continues:

The United States should keep in mind that the Communist China is a totalitarian society, the number of its population is 1.4 billion, and the possibilities to conceal secret military projects are infinite. The pla is the name of China’s “People’s Liberation Army.” It means that Communist China is out to “liberate” the entire world. You see, every country except the prc is “oppressed” by capitalists and other exploiters. Therefore, every prc’s war is by definition a “war of liberation” until the entire world will thus become “liberated.” China has enough people to carry out this task of global “liberation.” What else does the Communist China need to accomplish this? It needs the weapons to arm its army sufficiently well to “liberate” every country …. The free people of the world, their governments, and those who want to be free must learn how to recognize the warning signs of the danger coming from the evil, totalitarian societies by doing their utmost effort to defend themselves.

Tokyo revealed in the defense report that the Japanese are “doing their utmost to defend themselves,” as Navrozov suggests. The report said China’s increasing military power and assertiveness is prompting Japan to increase its coastal defenses, radar ability, and the size and power of its submarine fleet.

Thailand’s Realist Response

Thailand is responding to China’s rise in the opposite way. As China flexes its military muscle and the U.S.’s prestige in Asia fades, Bangkok is ready to abandon the sinking U.S. ship and align itself with Beijing. In a cable to Washington, Eric John, America’s former ambassador to Thailand, called attention to “China’s sustained, successful efforts to court Southeast Asia and Thailand.” John went on to say:

Indications that the U.S.’s historically close relationship with Thailand and the region is being challenged by the rise of China have become increasingly evident in recent years in a variety of arenas, not just economically but diplomatically, culturally, politically, and even in some security areas. A U.S.-educated Thai Army colonel at the National Defense College shocked a group of U.S. one-star officers visiting … in the fall of 2008 by stating bluntly: “The Thai perceive regional power dynamics as follows: China is rising; the U.S. is distracted/declining; and Thailand will adjust its policies accordingly.”

Evidence of Beijing’s success began in 2006 when China convinced the Thai military to hold annual joint military exercises with Chinese troops. Then, in 2010, the two sides held a 15-day joint antiterrorism drill. One Thai official expressed alarm over China’s surging influence in Thailand, saying, “China will own us! Thailand will be like a vassal of China.” But Thailand’s swing toward Beijing in recent years indicates that the majority of Thai policymakers have already accepted that China will dominate Thailand, and they are bracing the nation for the inevitable.

The Two Camps

As China’s rise continues, each Asian nation is working itself into one of two categories.

In the first camp are countries following Japan’s example, that see China’s shadow growing longer and darker and are reacting by building up their own defense forces. Among the nations in this category are Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea and Indonesia.

In the second category are the countries following Thailand’s example, those preparing themselves to be allied with or dominated by China. Among the countries in or edging toward this camp are East Timor, North Korea, Myanmar, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Mongolia, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Sri Lanka and, most importantly, mighty Russia.

But Bible prophecy indicates that, regardless of which category a given nation currently falls into, almost all will eventually be in the second camp—joined together as a gargantuan power bloc, with China and Russia at the helm. To understand more, read Russia and China in Prophecy.