WorldWatch
Europe
Planning for Greece to default
The German finance minister is preparing to deal with a Greek default, Der Spiegel reported September 12. Wolfgang Schäuble “no longer believes that the Greeks will be able to fulfill the stipulated conditions,” it wrote. German Economy Minister Philip Rösler wrote in Die Welt that an orderly default should be considered for Greece. A chorus of German politicians have warned that Greece could even leave the eurozone. “We have never been so close to emu rupture,” warned the Telegraph on September 11. The eurozone is heading rapidly for a crisis—a crisis that will change Europe forever.
1 | Netherlands
Indebted states must give up control of budgets
Eurozone nations that consistently break budgetary rules should be forced to surrender control over their budgets to a European commissioner or else leave the eurozone, said Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager on September 7. They called for the creation of a commissioner for budgetary disciple with “clear powers to set requirements for the budgetary policy of countries that run excessive deficits.” If a country fails to meet those requirements, the commissioner could force it to take firmer measures, even raising taxes, wrote Rutte and de Jager. The nation would also face escalating sanctions from the EU. “The final stage will involve preventive supervision, and the budget will have to be approved by the commissioner before it can be presented to parliament,” they said. Expect the economic crisis to take more power away from debtor nations and give it to creditor nations.
2 | France
Europe must step up!
The European Union will in future play a bigger role compared to America in the Middle East and North Africa, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said at an ambassadors’ conference on August 31. “The world is changing,” he said. In Libya, “Europeans have shown for the first time that they are capable of intervention in a decisive way, with their allies, in an open conflict on their doorstep.” He said the EU should be more involved in the Mideast peace process and warned Iran that its nuclear program could provoke a war. The Trumpet has long forecast that Europe will intervene by confronting Iran and sending troops to Israel. Its role in Libya has put Europe on this path.
3 | Germany
Court: ‘Yes, but’ to bailouts
Germany’s Constitutional Court said on September 7 that past eurozone bailouts do not violate Germany’s basic law but imposed conditions on future bailouts. Parliament’s budget committee, it ruled, must approve all such dispersals of funds in the future. This gives the budget committee a veto over how the money in Europe’s European Financial Stability Facility is used. Germany cannot be expected to foot the bill for another nation’s debt as long as that other nation remains in control of its own budget, according to the court ruling. Economic analyst for think tank Open Europe, Raoul Ruparel, noted: “[T]he wording used by the court … seems to suggest that joint debt in the eurozone could be constitutionally allowed if it involved a stronger German say over other member states’ fiscal policies” (September 7). The court decision throws a spanner in the works and at the same time hints that Germany may be able to fix the mess if it is allowed to dictate the budgets of those countries needing the bailouts.
Merkel coalition takes a hit
Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (cdu) and her coalition partner the Free Democratic Party (fdp) both did badly in a state election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 4. The cdu’s percentage of votes fell from 28.8 percent to 23.1. The fdp did even worse, falling from 9.6 to 2.7 percent of votes, meaning it will not have any seats in the state parliament—something even the neo-Nazi National Democratic Party managed to do. The fdp also suffered in elections in the city-state of Berlin. Although the cdu’s share of the vote rose from 21.3 to 23.4 percent, the fdp once again lacked the votes necessary for a seat in the state parliament. This undermining of Merkel’s authority is making it harder for her to deal with the economic crisis.
If eurozone breaks up, brace yourself
The Swiss bank ubs has warned that a breakup of the euro could have dire political costs. In a September 6 report, it said that past monetary union breakups have produced one of two results: “Either there was a more authoritarian government response to contain or repress the social disorder (a scenario that tended to require a change from democratic to authoritarian or military government), or alternatively, the social disorder worked with existing fault lines in society to divide the country, spilling over into civil war.” Poland’s finance minister agreed, quoting the head of a major bank who told him, “You know, after all these political shocks, economic shocks, it is very rare indeed that in the next 10 years we could avoid a war.” Many politicians see the eurozone must change radically, but the needed economic changes require even bigger political changes.
4 | China
Aiding Europe, for a price
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said he may help the eurozone but implied that, in return, he wants Europe to raise China’s status in the World Trade Organization. China will try to “prevent the further spread of the sovereign debt crisis,” Wen said at the World Economic Forum in September. He implied that if China was to prop up Europe, Europe must open its markets to more Chinese goods. The Trumpet has forecast a closer China-EU trade relationship. The euro crisis may help bring this about.
‘Liquidate’ U.S. debt ASAP!
China will sell its U.S. government debt as soon as it can safely do so, top adviser to China’s central bank Li Daokui told the World Economic Forum in September. “Once the U.S. treasury market stabilizes we can liquidate more of our holdings of treasuries,” Li said. When China stops buying America’s debt, it will mean the end of cheap credit for the cash-strapped U.S. government.
Asia
5 | Philippines
Softening its resistance
Philippine President Benigno Aquino iii began his first-ever state visit to China on August 30. Beforehand, Manila had softened its previous criticisms of Beijing’s assertive behavior, hoping to garner more Chinese investment during an economic slowdown in the Philippines. Manila has traditionally played the U.S. and China off one another, securing the benefits of economic relations with Beijing while protecting itself with Washington’s security assurances. But China hopes to use Manila’s growing desire for Chinese investment in order to boost its economic leverage over the Philippines and thus shape Manila’s behavior. The Trumpet has pointed out that even though Manila has decried China’s rise in the past, it will eventually succumb to China.
6 | Russia
How to win an election
Russia’s strongman, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, is set to return to the president’s chair in elections next year. Putin announced on September 24 at the annual conference of the ruling United Russia party that he will run for president next March, accepting a proposal by President Dmitry Medvedev and confirming what was widely expected. Putin proposed Medvedev’s candidacy as prime minister, which he accepted, meaning the two will be simply switching jobs.
Putin was president from 2000 to 2008, but was unable to run for a third consecutive four-year term due to constitutional restraints. Medvedev, whom he endorsed as his successor, was little more than a puppet: Putin remained Russia’s most powerful political leader by becoming prime minister and chairman of United Russia. In the meantime, with Putin’s enhanced control of the legislature, the constitution was amended at the end of 2008 to allow for six-year presidential terms instead of four-year. Thus, the way is now open for Putin to stay in power another 12 years.
Putin indicated that the arrangement had been agreed between the two leaders right back in 2007: “[W]e actually discussed this variant of events while we were first forming our comradely alliance,” he said. As the Trumpet has long been saying, democracy in Russia is a farce. “Putin has marshaled the return of Russia to great-power status, and he is not about to become hands-off,” we wrote on theTrumpet.com on Nov. 12, 2008. “Bible prophecy shows that Russia’s resurgence will be a catalyst for the emergence of a unified European superstate—and subsequently contribute to an enormously destructive world war.”
7 | Ukraine 8| Belarus
On the line between continents
From September 16 to 22, a Ukrainian combat team participated jointly for the first time in a major training drill with Russian and Belarusian forces. “It is time for us to take our cooperation to a new level,” Russian Army Chief of Staff Nikolai Makarov said of Ukraine’s decision to join in the annual exercise. The military exercise involved 12,000 soldiers, 50 aircraft and 100 tanks from the three former Soviet Union nations. Kiev’s participation sends a strong signal that Ukraine is heading toward the Russian camp, thereby sketching an eastern border for the EU. Watch for Ukraine to become the dividing line between the eastward-expanding EU and the westward expansion of a regenerated imperialist Russia. When that border is established, the basis for a non-aggression pact between Germany and Russia will be in place, and Germany will be free to tend to its expansionist aims elsewhere.
9 | Japan
Beijing: We should be closer
China called on Yoshihiko Noda, Japan’s new prime minister, to strengthen bilateral ties between the two nations on August 30. In a statement congratulating Noda on his election, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said he hoped both sides would work together to enhance bilateral “strategic and mutually beneficial relations.” Expect ties between these Asian powers to continue to grow.
Middle East
1 | Egypt 2 | Libya
The Great Islamic Awakening
Six weeks after the Mubarak regime collapsed in early February, the New York Times realized what was actually happening in Egypt. Religion had emerged as the most powerful political force, the Times wrote on March 24.
In Libya, Muammar Qadhafi had been gone for just three weeks, and the liberal democracy, secular, moderate disguise that covered the uprising early on had already been stripped away.
Libya could fall into the hands of Islamic extremists, said nato’s secretary general September 11. nato, of course, was largely responsible for ousting Qadhafi. It is Western military might that now enables Libyan rebels to draw up legislation based on sharia law.
On September 14, the New York Times printed a revealing article under this front-page headline: “Islamists’ Growing Sway Raises Questions for Libya.” According to the article, the most powerful military man in new Libya is Abdel Hakim Belhaj, an Islamic extremist with ties to al Qaeda. Libya’s most influential politician is an Islamic scholar named Ali Sallabi.
“It is the people’s revolution, and all the people are Muslims, Islamists,” Sallabi candidly told the Times.
Fathi Ben Issa is also featured in the Times piece. He was one of the first representatives on the Tripoli council, but he left this governing body dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood after learning that it intended to ban the arts and issue a fatwa that would bar Libyan women from driving automobiles.
But according to the Times, “The United States and Libya’s new leaders say the Islamists, a well-organized group in a mostly moderate country, are sending signals that they are dedicated to democratic pluralism. They say there is no reason to doubt the Islamists’ sincerity.”
Sallabi told the Times, presumably with a straight face, that he hopes Libya will find a leader like America’s first president, George Washington.
Ben Issa, who has received death threats for cutting ties with Libya’s Islamic council, said Sallabi is only trying to mask his true intentions. “He says one thing to the bbc and another to Al Jazeera,” Ben Issa said. “If you believe him, you don’t know the Muslim Brothers.”
But to the sleeping giant in Washington, there is “no reason” to doubt Sallabi’s commitment to spreading democracy.
On that point, even the New York Times seemed skeptical. “[A]s in Egypt and Tunisia, the latest upheaval of the Arab Spring deposed a dictator who had suppressed hard-core Islamists, and there are some worrisome signs about what kind of government will follow.”
Trumpet readers know exactly what kind of government will follow: one that perfectly serves the interests of Iran, the top state sponsor of radical Islam, and the prophesied king of the south (Daniel 11:40).
In Western political discourse, it might be fashionable to call the latest uprisings and revolts an “Arab Spring,” but on the Arab street and in Tehran—and more importantly, in the pages of your Bible—it’s seen as a great Islamic awakening. And it’s building toward a spectacular clash that will soon trigger World War iii!
3 | Israel
Terrorists gain hold on Sinai
Egypt’s Sinai has become a center of operation for several Islamist terrorist groups, including al Qaeda, over recent months. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s counterterrorism czar told an Israeli-hosted security conference in September that Egypt’s political entropy had helped reinforce and arm the Sinai terrorists. “If you want to buy, today, a mortar or a machine gun or even a manpad (anti-aircraft missile), all you need is a few dollars and you get it,” Nitzan Nuriel said. “The level of the threat is much more dramatic than it was a year ago.” debkafile reported that the Egyptian government’s appeasement of the Muslim Brotherhood has resulted in it actually doing deals with the terrorists in the Sinai, leaving them in control of the area, instead of confronting them.
Attack in Tel Aviv
On August 29, a Palestinian from the West Bank wounded eight Israelis when he hijacked a taxi in Tel Aviv, stabbed the driver, ran over police officers at a checkpoint outside a nightclub, and then got out of the car and stabbed several bystanders. A police spokeswoman said the man declared “God is great!” in Arabic as he struggled with police as they arrested him. Israel has been on an increased level of alert for possible attacks since the August 18 gun attack that killed eight Israelis, and fears the possibility of a third intifada.
4 | Afghanistan
Taliban siege in Kabul
Taliban fighters fired rockets at the U.S. Embassy and nato headquarters in Kabul on September 13-14 and carried out three suicide attacks in other parts of the city in the biggest assault the terrorists have mounted on the Afghan capital. The siege in Kabul’s diplomatic enclave lasted 20 hours, with as many as 10 insurgents, armed with rocket-propelled grenade launchers, ak-47 assault rifles and suicide bomb vests, occupying and launching their attack from a nearby part-built multi-story building.
Gen. John R. Allen, the commander of nato and U.S. forces in Afghanistan, said the raid, with its hours of explosions and fierce gun battles, was a propaganda victory for the Taliban. The insurgents were able to carry out the attack in one of the most protected areas of the capital.
The raid took place as U.S. and other nato forces prepare to hand over security responsibilities in Afghanistan to Afghan troops. Violence is now at its worst level in the country since the Taliban government was toppled in 2001.
Then, on September 20, Burhanuddin Rabbani, former Afghan president and head of the government’s High Peace Council, was killed by a Taliban suicide bomber in another dramatic demonstration of the Taliban’s reach. The bomb was detonated while two men posing as Taliban peace emissaries were meeting with Rabbani at his home.
Meanwhile, Washington-approved negotiations continue between Taliban representatives and the Peace Council. It is now accepted as being inevitable that the Taliban, being the largest political force in Afghanistan, will become part of a future Afghan government. This, after a decade of the U.S. fighting the Taliban, is a precise fulfillment of the prophecy that this nation’s “strength [would] be spent in vain” (Leviticus 26:20).
5 | Iran
Did Iran help plan 9/11?
It’s been 10 years since 9/11. This year, families of victims of that act of war have filed two lawsuits—one in May, the other in September—against an unusual defendant: the Islamic Republic of Iran. This legal team is convinced—based on years of research interviewing intelligence officials, cia agents, Iranian defectors and others—it can prove that the terrorists who plotted and carried out the 9/11 attacks were backed by Iran.
“Put simply: The Islamic Republic of Iran helped design the 9/11 plot,” wrote Kenneth Timmerman, who helped in the effort (FrontPageMag.com, September 9). Iran also “provided intelligence support to identify and train the operatives who carried it out.” Further, it helped the hijackers skirt U.S. and Pakistani surveillance—even on the fateful trip where bin Laden gave them final instructions—“by escorting them through Iranian borders without passport stamps.”
It’s earth-shattering stuff, but don’t expect Washington to do anything. This information has been available for years, but the government is not interested. In addition, proof abounds of Iran waging direct war against U.S. troops in Afghanistan and Iraq—arming and training insurgents and so on. It doesn’t matter; America keeps pretending Iran isn’t involved. In July, the Treasury Department labeled Iran “a critical transit point for funding to support al Qaeda’s activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan” and called it “the core pipeline through which al Qaeda moves money, facilitators and operatives.” So what did it do? It forbade Americans from having commercial or financial dealings with six specific al Qaeda agents.
Iran has been waging war against America for 10 years. It helped kill 3,000 Americans on 9/11. It has helped in killing thousands more on the battlefield since. It is bloodying America’s nose, trashing its reputation, burning its honor, and draining its treasury. And America does nothing.
3 | Israel
Risk of losing space edge
Israel is in danger of losing its qualitative military edge in space, the outgoing chief of Israel’s military space program warned September 1. Brig. Gen. Hayim Eshed, who founded Israel’s Defense Ministry Space Division 30 years ago, said, “Today, we have a relative edge over the rest of the region and parts of the world in certain space capabilities, some of which other countries are trying to copy. If, however, we do not increase our investments in the next two years we stand the risk of losing our edge.”
Latin America, Africa
1 | Brazil
Brazil looks to aid eurozone
Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said on September 13 that his country may work with China, India and Russia in putting together a monetary aid package for ailing eurozone nations. “We’re going to see what we can do to help the European Union get through this situation,” he said. Brazil may purchase mostly symbolic amounts of European bonds in a highly public way in an effort to boost investor confidence in European bond markets. Some are starting to joke about the strange turn of affairs that allows Brazil to help out its former colonial master Portugal. Don’t let the jokes fool you. Herbert Armstrong long prophesied that the alliance between Europe and South America would grow strong, but it won’t be a union of equals: The Latin American countries will again become vassal states to Europe.
2 | Cuba
Dissidents to church: Help!
A Cuban dissident group met with an aide to Catholic Cardinal Jaime Ortega on August 30 to lay out its concerns over a recent government crackdown on its supporters. “Our principal worry is to stop the beatings and harassment against the Ladies in White in all of Cuba, but also that there’s been too much violence against other peaceful opposition activists,” said Ladies in White spokeswoman Berta Soler. Ortega interceded on behalf of the Ladies in White last spring, when government-organized mobs attacked the group as it marched after Sunday mass in Havana, and the harassment quickly stopped. Watch for initiatives from Vatican City to consolidate the church’s power by winning the loyalty of its Cuban parishioners.
3 | South Africa
Hints of an exodus
Mining firms Anglo American plc and Rio Tinto plc announced on September 5 plans to sell their stake in South Africa’s largest copper producer, Palabora Mining Co. Both said the decision was based on a desire to focus on larger, longer-life assets. Analysts note, however, that several companies have been selling smaller assets in South Africa as political risks increase. Such moves should offer a warning to South Africa’s ruling party, which is currently debating how to reform the mining industry and the option of nationalization. Many investors feel a policy of nationalization will transform South Africa into a second Zimbabwe.
4 | Benin
Pirates seek safer waters
Armed pirates commandeered a fuel tanker off the West African nation of Benin on September 14 and took its 23 crew members hostage. This hijacking was the most recent in a series of pirate attacks in a coastal region of Africa that had been considered relatively safe until this year. The target was a Cyprus-flagged tanker shipping oil; the vessel was trying to transfer some cargo to a Norwegian-flagged vessel. The pirates also boarded the second vessel, but that crew locked itself in the engine room, and the pirates left. Cyrus Mody, manager of the International Maritime Bureau in London, an international pirating monitoring group, attributed the rise in Gulf of Guinea piracy to a crackdown on fuel thieves in Nigeria, a leading oil exporter. The EU is already fighting piracy off the coast of Somalia, and the German military recently renewed its ties with oil-rich Nigeria. Nigeria’s fate largely determines the stability of the oil-rich nations surrounding the Gulf of Guinea. This fact is not lost on Germany. Expect German military involvement on the African continent to increase in the months to come.
The rising risk of genocide
The independent watchdog organization Genocide Watch has upgraded the genocide warning for the white population in South Africa from a level five to a level six. According to Genocide Watch president Gregory Stanton, risk level six is the level just before mass exterminations commence.
Genocide Watch raised the level on August 20 largely because of the alarming rate at which native blacks have been killing Afrikaner farmers. Since the end of apartheid, over 3,000 white farmers have been murdered, according to some reports. This figure amounts to almost 7 percent of the total population of white farmers in South Africa.
The upgrade was also made in light of calls by Julius Malema, the firebrand youth leader of the African National Congress (anc), to seize, without compensation, white-owned farms and businesses. Many political observers believe that such property seizures could spark violent racial clashes. Malema and other prominent anc politicians have done little to allay such fears by routinely singing such xenophobic songs as the Zulu militaristic anthem “Dubuli ‘Bhunu” (“Shoot the Boer”).
Genocide risk level six is labeled “Preparation,” the stage just before level-seven “Extermination.” Clearly, South Africa is a nation bubbling over with racial tension and is swiftly proceeding down the road toward Zimbabwe-style politics. Sadly, if the warnings coming from Genocide Watch are valid, the same road could lead to Rwanda-style genocide.
Anglo-America
A heap of people out of work
The U.S. Department of Labor’s August employment report wasn’t pretty. Economists estimate America’s economy needs to create 150,000 jobs per month just to keep up with population growth. In August, it created 17,000, which, out of a workforce of 153 million, is statistically zero. This leaves the official unemployment rate at 9.1 percent, approximately where it was in April. However, this measure does not include discouraged workers who have given up looking for work, or those who are working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment. Include these individuals, and the government says unemployment is really 16.2 percent.
Economist John Williams at ShadowStats.com, however, says the real unemployment rate is even higher. If the government calculated the numbers the way it did before 1994, it would show unemployment above 22 percent, “the highest level seen in the current, protracted economic downturn.”
The unemployment report also indicated that wages are falling. The average salary for a private sector worker dropped by 3 cents to $23.09 per hour. The number of hours that employees worked also fell.
“Americans are enduring painful long-term joblessness,” said an official from Congressman Ron Paul’s office. “They’re witnessing their savings disappear due to lost income. They’re seeing their personal debt rise due to lost income. And they gaze despairingly upon their retirement plans as these arrangements are tabled or upended entirely.” It is just a small taste of what is to come. An economic “mega-storm” is on the way.
Irene leaves mark after all
After strong forewarnings were criticized for being too severe, Hurricane Irene still ended up being one of the 10 costliest natural disasters in American history. Estimates put the cost of damages from the storm that hit America’s Eastern Seaboard between $7 and $10 billion. Deadly flooding caused havoc in upstate New York and Vermont; cotton and tobacco crops perished in North Carolina; commuters couldn’t get to work in New York City; tourists had to stay off Atlantic beaches in the peak of summer. The increase in natural disasters will hasten America’s economic decline.
At last, Britain promotes marriage … oh wait
The British government plans to introduce homosexual “marriages” before the next election in 2015, Equalities Minister Lynne Featherstone announced at the Liberal Democratic Party annual conference September 17. Homosexuals in Britain have been able to form civil partnerships since December 2005, which gives them similar rights to married couples. The government also plans to allow homosexuals to hold civil partnership ceremonies in churches.
Prime Minister David Cameron personally intervened to promote the new proposals. That a Conservative prime minister is pushing for same-sex “marriage” shows how radically left-wing Britain has become. Cameron has often supported homosexuals; he apologized for legislation introduced by former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher that banned homosexual propaganda from schools. Cameron says he supports marriage and family, and that strong families make a strong society because they involve responsibility and commitment; but he argues that homosexual “marriages” are good for society for the same reasons.
The prime minister misses the fact that God created marriage and family as the only stable way to build a society and to teach man about his relationship with his spiritual Father. God designed marriage for an awesome purpose—something a homosexual relationship can never fulfill.
Britain not invited to the EU party
Foreign ministers from France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain called on EU High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton on September 2 to set up a military headquarters as a “matter of urgency,” according to the Daily Telegraph. The letter instructs Ashton to use a new legal mechanism in the Lisbon Treaty to bypass Britain’s veto. This shows that the major EU powers are determined to work toward a common military despite Britain’s objections.
New reality for 2.6 million more Americans
Another 2.6 million Americans slipped into poverty last year, the Census Bureau reported September 13. Minorities are being hit the hardest: Blacks have the highest poverty rate at 27.4 percent; Hispanics are right behind at 26.6 percent. Asians and whites are impoverished at rates of 12.1 percent and 9.9 percent, respectively. The report said the percentage of Americans living below the official poverty line last year, 15.1, was the highest since 1993. (The poverty line in 2010 for a family of four was $22,314.) The number of Americans in that category is now 46.2 million, the most since the bureau began publishing figures 52 years ago. Rising unemployment, an overloaded social welfare system, mass discontent, loss of faith in leadership, disdain for law and morality—all these problems are fueling tensions between blacks and whites, rich and poor, Democrats and Republicans.
