Germany Plays Nuclear Chicken With World’s Economy
Paul Krugman, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and Nouriel Roubini agree: If the European Central Bank (ecb) doesn’t start printing money—and fast—the eurozone as we know it is dead.
I never thought I would say this, but Krugman might be right! In this debt-swamped, debt-addicted world, the only way to stop—at least temporarily—the economic collapse might be to pay off the debts with newly created money. Yes, there could be a devastating cost! Savers could get hurt, the euro could plummet in value, inflation could soar—but it might buy the eurozone some time.
And time is running out.
If the ecb had printed money when Greece first got in trouble, a couple hundred billion might have halted the collapse in its tracks. But the ecb refused. Greece erupted in flames. It refused again. And the crisis engulfed Ireland. Another refusal. The crisis spread to Portugal.
Last week, the markets turned on Italy. This is no small event. The cost to borrow for the Italians is skyrocketing, while their economy is shrinking. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was forced to resign. Italy is the third-largest economy in the eurozone. It has the world’s fourth-largest debt market. Without Italy, there is no eurozone—at least not one that can be called a common European currency.
If the euro is to be saved, a line in the sand must be drawn, and soon.
Even now, with Italian five-year borrowing costs spiking to 7.5 percent, Italy and the eurozone could be saved. But if the ecb doesn’t act quickly, it will need to print trillions instead of billions to stave off collapse.
With each passing day, the risk of eurozone meltdown grows.
But why won’t the ecb act? Why won’t it do what every other central bank in the world would do? That is the golden question. That is the question making the Krugmans and Roubinis of the world pull out their hair.
Everyone knows that the ecb is essentially a German-run bank. Surely Germany knows that if Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal collapse there will be no one to buy its bmw’s. If the euro falls apart and the Europeans go back to their individual currencies, surely it knows that the German mark would soar in value, while the lira, drachma and other currencies would plunge. Who could afford expensive German imports then? German workers would quickly get a taste of the unemployment line—and a longing for the socialized welfare they so criticize the Italians for.
What has gotten into Germany? Surely the elites realize that in this interconnected world, the whole global economy is at stake.
A sense of frustration and incredulity is growing. “America and China must crush Germany into submission,” writes the Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. “You cannot allow the biggest bankruptcy in history to run its course—with calamitous domino implications—before all options have been exhausted.”
America and China will soon be forced to intervene “in unison and with massive diplomatic force. One can imagine joint telephone calls to Chancellor Angela Merkel more or less ordering her country to face up to the implications of the monetary union that Germany itself created and ran (badly),” he says. “This means mobilizing the full firepower of the ecb—with a pledge to change EU treaty law and the bank’s mandate—and perhaps some form of quantum leap towards a fiscal and debt union.”
Analyst Grant Williams agrees: “Those in charge of the SS Europe are left with a stark choice—print money or allow the breakup of the eurozone and the end of the common currency known as the euro. At this point it really is that simple” (emphasis added).
So, what has gotten into Germany? Why won’t it let the ecb print money to pay the debts?
The answer is as simple as it is ominous. The German elites are intoxicated with the vision of Charlemagne. As the Daily Telegraph reported in July, the crisis is “giving Germany the empire it has always wanted.” Since the fall of the old Roman Empire, six times European leaders came within inches of uniting all of Europe under one king (Justinian, Charlemagne, Otto the Great, the Habsburgs, Napoleon, Hitler-Mussolini axis).
Now it is happening again. Germany is once more making a grand gamble for Europe. But instead of trying to conquer it militarily, it is doing it economically. The economic crisis fits well into that playbook.
The more Europe descends into crisis, the more Europe pleads with Germany to save it—and the more Europe is willing to give up to be “saved.”
Germany-friendly governments are already installed in bankrupt Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal. And as Trumpet columnist Brad Macdonald recently pointed to, there is now a pro-German candidate appointed to lead Italy.
The reality is that a short, sharp, dramatic crisis is exactly what German elites want. In some ways, Germany even financially profits from it. The EU Observer reported on November 9 that the German government has made €9 billion from the crisis as investors have fled to the safety of German bonds.
Germany is profiting in other ways too: demanding that crisis countries give up budget sovereignty to “European” vetters, and that struggling countries implement economy-crippling austerity measures and submit to centralized “European” leaders in Brussels. Nations are signing away their sovereignty.
Many German politicians are even pushing for troubled European nations to sell their national gold reserves to pay for bailouts. Senior German politician Gunther Krichbaum said Italy needed to sell its sizable gold reserves in order to lower its debt. In May, two other senior ministers proposed that Portugal sell its gold. Meanwhile, Chancellor Merkel’s rival Ursula von der Leyen demanded that the debtor countries actually sign over their gold reserves and industrial facilities as collateral for loans.
Yet it is telling that Germany has rejected American and British proposals that German gold reserves be used as collateral to back a European-wide bailout. “German gold reserves must remain untouchable,” said German Economy Minister Philipp Rösler.
If you read between the lines, economic war is being waged in Europe—and German elites are winning.
But it is a risky campaign. Political elites, especially those in Germany, France and Brussels, want total union—political and economic. The current crisis in Europe is their chance. More crisis equals more opportunity.
Yet it is an incredibly risky gamble. It is like playing a game of chicken with nuclear bombs in the back of the car. If Germany can exploit the economic crisis to force through its reforms—and gain political and fiscal control of Europe—it will instantaneously vault itself into global superpower status. But if it waits too long to turn on the printing presses, a full-scale banking implosion and global smash-up is almost guaranteed. Maybe that is why it is after all that gold?
Playing chicken is always dangerous. To play it with so much at stake, you know that the potential payoff must be big.