Boy, the United States and Europe are getting tough. On Friday and Sunday respectively, they each imposed stiffer sanctions against Iran as punishment for its unrelenting progress toward nuclear bomb-making capability. Take that!

Iran’s response? Take a hike.

The few days since the economic restrictions kicked in have witnessed a blizzard of militaristic activity from Iran.

It immediately announced legislation that would call on its military to stop oil tankers that are passing through the Strait of Hormuz en route to countries adhering to the EU embargo and no longer buying Iranian crude. A Revolutionary Guards commander threatened that Iran would soon begin arming its ships in the strait with shorter-range missiles.

This is the world’s most important oil choke point—the gateway through which flows 40 percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade, and a fifth of its total oil supply.

Iran also started war games, saying it intended them to send a message. “It’s a reaction to those who are politically discourteous to the Iranian people by saying ‘all options are on the table,’” the Revolutionary Guards’ number two, Gen. Hossein Salami, said. The Guard Corps commander in charge called missile tests a practice response to an attack by America and Israel. The tests used mock targets replicating foreign bases belonging to “extra regional powers,” according to official media reports.

One of the missiles successfully test-fired is capable of striking Israel.Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ airspace unit, said an Israeli attack on Iran would give the Islamic Republic a “pretext to obliterate them from the face of the Earth.” He pointed out that America may not want to come to Israel’s aid because U.S. bases in the region would be within firing range of Iran’s missiles.

Hajizadeh also claims Iran is building its own drone based on classified information gleaned from the American drone that went down on Iranian territory in December.

Well, then. So much for sanctions bringing Iran to its knees. Iran is plainly unconcerned about them. It is unafraid of America. Unafraid of the European Union. It is uncontrite, and bristling with confidence.

And Tehran has good reason for its belligerence—at least for now.

Why? Because these powers, particularly the U.S., are showing themselves to have all bark, no bite.

First, threats from these countries have been drizzling in gentle droves for years, to little effect. Second, Iran is skilled and amply practiced at evading sanctions through various forms of deception.

And third, the U.S. just did a fine job of undermining these latest restrictions all by itself. The day before the sanctions went into effect, the U.S. announced that it would grant exceptions to China and Singapore in what is seen as an effort to buy their support—ironically—to pressure Iran over its nuclear program. That’s right: Washington is giving China—which buys as much as a fifth of Iran’s oil exports—a free pass to purchase oil from Iran in order to get China to put pressure on Iran.

This is the reality behind America’s “tough” new disciplinary measures. Reuters reports that, in fact, the Obama administration has made exceptions to sanctions for all 20 of Iran’s top oil customers.

Iran had prepared itself for this moment—by increasing its oil trade with China before the restrictions kicked in. Thus, wrote Jonathan Tobin in Commentary, “Iran dared the Americans to risk a confrontation with Beijing” (emphasis added throughout). After all, America isn’t exactly in a position to make demands on a country to which it is over a trillion dollars in debt.

“The result is that Tehran’s belief President Obama and his Western allies are bluffing has been confirmed rather than debunked. This will act as a virtual green light for the Iranians to keep pushing ahead toward their nuclear goal while Western leaders posture but do little to stop them.”

This has been the story for well over a decade. Iran pushes—the West gets huffy and blows some hot air—and things simmer down until Iran makes another provocative move.

Now, the momentum of power has clearly shifted in Iran’s favor. From Iran’s perspective, both the U.S. and Europe are preoccupied by their own economic crises, and the U.S. is additionally engrossed in its presidential campaign—not to mention war-weary from the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran, by contrast, has been encouraged by the “Arab Spring” uprisings in the region, which have brought increased power to political Islam.

Moreover, Iranian leaders don’t see their country as suffering economically. In fact, they see its economic position as having greatly improved thanks to higher oil prices in recent years. Today’s prices, though having fallen, are four times what they were a decade ago. Last year, the International Monetary Fund predicted that Iran’s oil exports revenue for 2012-13 would be $104 billion—four times what it was a decade ago. Even if sanctions are making it harder to do business, Iran’s mullahs still see the overall financial trajectory as being positive. After all, Iran’s annual growth has been higher than that of the U.S. and Europe for the past five years.

Here is the plainspoken analysis of the Washington Institute’s Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji: “In Tehran’s eyes, both parties—especially the United States—want a deal with Iran more than Iran wants a deal with them. Iranian leaders also see no prospect of military action any time soon, certainly not before the U.S. elections in November. Even after November, they believe Western leaders will be so worried about the potential impact a war would have on their fragile economies that they will step back from confrontation” (June 26).

Whatever degree of truth there is in Iran’s view, there is enough evidence to support it to make Iran plenty confident, and plenty aggressive. The West’s weakness is stoking Iran’s conviction. It feels no real pressure to concede an inch.

Thus, as has been the case for some time now, we can expect its provocations to continue to get stronger.

Where will they end? Long-time Trumpet readers are well aware of the answer.

Events are barreling toward the conclusion prophesied in Scripture: Iran—self-assured and belligerent, lulled by years of all-bark-no-bite response from the West—is going to push once too many, too hard, too far. And the sudden, shocking, overwhelmingly violent response they encounter will be their end!