On the eve of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to the United States Congress, Reuters interviewed U.S. President Barack Obama on the merits of a nuclear deal with Iran. The interview was the president’s last chance to shore up his stance on a nuclear deal with Iran before Netanyahu’s speech.

In an attempt to persuade his audience, Mr. Obama said that while Iran would likely be allowed to enrich uranium, it would be heavily monitored—ensuring that “there’s at least a year between us seeing [Iran] trying to get a nuclear weapon and them actually being able to obtain one.”

But should the U.S. be so confident that it would catch Iran before it created a nuclear bomb? Unfortunately the track record says it should not.

Let’s take a look at previous nuclear nations that made the transition from peaceful to weaponized nuclear programs—despite U.S. efforts.

Smiling Buddha

India’s fledgling nuclear program had been tentatively supported through the early ’40s by the British government. By 1955, Canada offered to pay all the foreign exchange costs of building a $24 million reactor. The only safeguard was India’s promise that the fissile material it produced would be used only for peaceful purposes. The U.S. sold India heavy water to use in the reactor at Trombay.

India’s leaders continually promised that the atomic research was all for peaceful purposes. Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru said that “whatever the circumstances, we shall never use this atomic energy for evil purposes. There is no condition attached.”

But the call for a nuclear India grew after China defeated India in the brief border war of 1962. Many in India thought a nuclear deterrent to China was vital.

U.S. reports about India’s breakout capacity began to surface through the ’60s as India’s leaders began to talk about potential changes to their peaceful nuclear policies. By 1964, India had weapons-grade plutonium. By 1972, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi approved underground nuclear explosions for “peaceful purposes.”

By the ’90s India was keeping the U.S. in the dark about its nuclear program. Over 50 percent of the Indian cabinet was willing to keep pursuing nukes despite the threat of sanctions from the U.S. and Japan.

Does Iran think any differently? If anything, the choice to go nuclear doesn’t even come down to a vote. What the religious leaders want, they get. If the supreme leader wants nukes, then Iran will get them—be it in secret or in the open. Once India’s leaders made up their mind, there was little the U.S. could do to stop them! Iran would be the same.

The Rajasthan desert in northwestern India was the staging ground for India’s first nuclear weapon test. It was codenamed Smiling Buddha. By the time the U.S. put sanctions in place in 1998, it was too little too late. India had nuclear weapons and the U.S. had failed in its attempts to stop it.

Pakistani Promises

While India made headway toward developing nuclear weapons, its neighbor Pakistan tended to its own plans.

With the aid of Canada, Pakistan set up its first nuclear power station in 1972. By that stage, Pakistan’s Atomic Energy Commission had been promoting peaceful atomic energy use for almost 20 years. Everything seemed to be running smoothly. Pakistan made continuous promises—even backing them with actions—that it would not produce nuclear weapons. Then India detonated its first nuclear device. With relations between the two nations so tumultuous, Pakistan argued that it needed nukes of its own, thus sparking a two-nation arms race.

Canada quickly withdrew support when Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutt charged for the bomb, claiming Pakistan would “eat grass” if necessary to develop its nuclear weapons.

The U.S. briefly sanctioned Pakistan, but removed them after only two years. Sanctions were reinforced in 1990 when the U.S. suspected Pakistan’s program was weapons oriented. But again it was too little too late. The newly enforced sanctions barely slowed Pakistan as it surged ahead with nuclear weapons development.

Pakistan test-fired an array of nuclear-capable missiles. In 1998, Pakistan shocked people around the world when it tested its first nuclear weapon.

Pakistan claimed its reasons for the dramatic reversal in its nuclear promises were simply because its hand was forced by India. Of course, India also argued it was forced by China.

If neither of these nations had any qualms lying to the U.S. about their nuclear intents, what makes Iran’s word any different?

Can’t Stop Korea

North Korea is perhaps the iconic example of the U.S.’s inability to stop a nation from going nuclear. In late 1991, North and South Korea agreed on a nuclear ban. In 1993, North Korea signed a pledge to never develop nuclear weapons. The cia had reason to believe that the North Koreans had at least two bombs by that stage, but didn’t have sufficient proof to act. Within a year, North Korea quit the International Atomic Energy Agency.

After wading though a number of concessions and murky deals, we come to 2002. Confronted by the Bush administration, North Korea admitted to funding and operating a secret nuclear enrichment program. It ended all nuclear treaties with the United States and charged ahead with its nuclear program.

In 2006, despite sanctions and condemnation from around the world, North Korea tested its first nuclear bomb. A second came in 2009, and North Korea’s leaders proclaimed that they were “fully ready for battle against the United States.”

What is to stop Iran from doing the same thing? Iran has made promises—like North Korea. It has also signed treaties just like North Korea. Both nations are largely impoverished, yet the ruling bodies spend millions on enhancing nuclear capabilities. The persecution of the media leaves both nations shrouded in mystery. If the tiny nation of North Korea could successfully develop its nuclear weapons in the dark, could not Iran do the same?

Like India, Pakistan and North Korea before it, Iran is a nation with nuclear ambitions. Whether it claims those ambitions are peaceful or not, the end result will be the same. Iran’s nuclear program will produce the bomb. The groundwork has been laid. It is just a matter of when Iran will choose to go for the bomb. When that day comes, history proves that the U.S. will be powerless to stop it.