The EU, headed by France and Germany, could replace U.S. on Mideast

Brussels has witnessed a major shift in the EU-US relationship in the respective outlooks on economic and security policies. A senior EU official close to Federica Mogherini, the European Union high commissioner for foreign affairs and security policy, told Al-Monitor that given the internal and external situation, Brussels is compelled to develop a more independent foreign policy, including on Middle Eastern issues. Following the Brexit, the EU is headed today mainly by a German-French alliance — Merkel and Macron. With the economic might and influence of the EU in the international arena, Brussels, Berlin and Paris are determined to run an effective and more independent foreign policy.

The senior EU official told Al-Monitor that Brussels is particularly concerned with the Israel-Palestinian issue on the backdrop of recent violence outbreaks in the aftermath of the July 14 terror attack near the Temple Mount. Mogherini has been consulting lately on this issue with the German, French and Italian leaderships. They are all concerned that violence will spiral out of control, turning into an armed intifada. Mogherini is also in constant contact with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, but the US administration does not involve the EU in the ongoing efforts of its envoy Jason Greenblatt, except for periodic updates.

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According to the official, one can assume that if the United States does not launch a regionally-backed two-state solution process, Merkel (assuming she wins as expected in the upcoming elections) and Macron, together with EU headquarters, will launch a European initiative on the terms of reference for a two-state solution and a peace conference to be convened in Brussels.