The unbearable complacency of Angela Merkel

The going seems good in Germany right now. The economy is booming. …

Yet Germany is actually far more vulnerable than it seems. Europe’s export powerhouse has long been a free-rider on both the open markets and the nuclear security guarantee provided by the United States. Both of those are under threat from Merkel’s ungracious host in Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump. The crumbling of that liberal international order seems likely to make Germany even more reliant on the European Union for its future prosperity and security. …

Germany is increasingly vulnerable not just economically but also in security terms. President Vladimir Putin’s revanchist Russia is on Germany’s doorstep; its heavily militarized Kaliningrad region is a mere 373 miles’ tank ride to Berlin. Meanwhile, Trump has cast doubt on the U.S. nuclear security guarantee. Yet Germany’s attitude to its defense borders on carelessness. Decades of underinvestment have left its armed forces in a sorry state, with submarines that don’t sail, tanks that don’t drive, and planes that don’t fly. It spends a mere 1.2 percent of GDP on defense, well below the NATO target of 2 percent that Trump is rightly (albeit obnoxiously) demanding be met. While politicians in Berlin are correct in pointing out that Germany’s generous foreign aid also enhances the security of its neighborhood, soft power is not much of a deterrent to Russian tanks.

Given its World War II history, Germany’s queasiness about all things military is understandable. And to its credit, it is playing a more active role in NATO, not least in leading the tripwire forces in Lithuania that seek to deter Russian aggression. But its penny-pinching on defense is still perilously complacent. It also refuses even to consider the need for a German — or eventually a European — nuclear deterrent. Both of those hobble efforts to strengthen common EU defense as a hedge against U.S. disengagement from NATO. After Brexit, France will be the EU’s only significant military power. …

It is always hard to change when the sun is shining but much less painful than doing so when storms arrive. Those storms are now visible on the horizon. Germans would do well to wake up from their slumber, while their country is still economically strong, before the lightning strikes.