For the EU, the sun also rises

An EU free from British membership will mean new challenges, but also new opportunities.

“We know very well the sun rises tomorrow and a new chapter for our union will start,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said wistfully in a speech on Brexit Day. “With it comes a once-in-a-generation opportunity to make sure the EU leads the way.” …

Today was not a day to focus on the future EU-relationship, but a day to talk about Europe, and what might be possible now that the UK is leaving. “It’s an exceptional day for the EU, and we have mixed feelings,” said Michel. “It’s never a happy moment when someone leaves, but we are opening a new chapter. And we will devote all our energy to building a stronger and more ambitious EU.”

No More Holding Back

Ambitious is the key word. In Brussels, there has long been a feeling that the UK has held the EU back from taking the measures that would make it a more powerful force in the world. This has always particularly irked the French. Now, with the British leaving, things are possible that weren’t possible before. And French President Emmanuel Macron wants to push forward with them.

The UK had always blocked attempts to create a defense role for the EU, fearful it would be in competition with NATO. With the UK leaving, work on creating a “defense union” for the EU has already been ongoing for over a year. EU enlargement—always pushed by London, but resisted by Paris and Berlin—has had the brakes thrown on. It is only a matter of time before Turkey’s EU accession bid, pushed for so long by London and Washington, will be officially ended. Endless enlargement dilutes the ability of the EU to be a strong unified bloc, Paris and Berlin believe, and would turn it into nothing more than a free trade area. This, of course, is what London always wanted—hence why they pushed expansion.

Rather than believing that Brexit portends the end of the union, many in Brussels think the experience of the Brexit negotiations over the past three years has put the wind in Europe’s sails. Contrary to expectations, the EU27 showed remarkable unity throughout, with not a single member breaking ranks to conduct bilateral negotiations with London, despite the most intense efforts on the part of the UK.