German chancellor’s refusal to halt Nord Stream 2 encourages Putin to act with impunity
Merkel takes seriously her role as a champion for German industry. Foreign policy must be carefully calibrated to avoid damaging the country’s legendary export performance. Thus Berlin took the lead in pushing through the EU’s recent investment agreement with China in spite of Beijing’s growing disdain for international rules. Closer to home, fellow EU member Hungary has become a pivotal manufacturing hub for Germany’s automobile industry. Its prime minister, Viktor Orban, is marching the country towards authoritarianism. Merkel has consistently applied a brake on EU action to uphold Hungarian democracy.
With Russia, the test for Merkel is the pipeline under the Baltic to bring Russian gas to Germany. Nord Stream 2 is nearing completion. It promises at once to undercut the EU’s joint energy policy, to offer strategic economic security to the Kremlin and to weaken Ukraine. Scrapping the project would show serious intent on the part of the west to uphold a law-based order. It would also impose significant cost on German businesses.
By ignoring the entreaties of the US and many European governments to call a halt, Merkel is setting a clear limit on Europe’s response to Kremlin lawlessness. Putin can do as he pleases in the knowledge the EU’s reaction will be constrained by Berlin. Sanctions may sting, but they will not wound. Merkel cannot complain if others see her as the autocrats’ ally.