Assadist Syria was one of the last standing members of Iran’s “axis of resistance.” But as of December 8, Bashar Assad’s regime is history. Israel had already decimated Iranian proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. Now that Assad is gone, many think it may be time to build the tomb of the axis of resistance as well.

• “With Assad’s Fall, Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Unravels” (New York Times)
• “Fall of Assad in Syria Deals Serious Blow to Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’” (Washington Post)
• “Iran in a ‘Position of Unprecedented Weakness’ After the Fall of Assad in Syria” (France 24)
• “Khamenei Loses Everything” (Atlantic)

What is the axis of resistance? What does it mean if it falls apart? Is Iran actually on its last legs?

Defining the Axis

Put simply, the “axis of resistance” is Iran’s way of portraying itself and its proxies as a unified force against “Western imperialism.” The enemy it is “resisting” depends on the proxy. For Iraq’s Shiite militias, the resistance is against the United States’ presence in the country. Hamas and Hezbollah are resisting Israel in the Palestinian territories. Yemen’s Houthis resist Saudi Arabia.

Most follow Shia Islam. Some—like the main Palestinian factions, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad—are Sunni. Assad’s regime was socialist and secular.

The members’ one common goal is to make Iran the ascendant power in the Middle East. Their ideology, whether in pretense or actually believed, is that the American-Israeli-Saudi bloc is an oppressive, foreign and blasphemous force subjugating the entire Middle East and that Iran is the only legitimate source of liberation.

Undoing the Axis

“Liberating” Jerusalem and the Holy Land from Israel is one of the axis’s most—if not the most—important goals. That is why Hamas launched its war against Israel in October last year and Hezbollah and the Houthis followed suit soon after. And that is why Iran launched its first-ever direct attacks against Israel in the context of the war.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not one to back away from a challenge. But Iran and its proxies were probably hoping for one of two (or both) outcomes: 1) The international community, especially the Joe Biden administration, would pressure Israel to stand down under threat of sanctions and war crimes charges, getting it to sign a treaty with Hamas, giving the terrorist group international legitimacy; or 2) power-hungry opposition politicians and war-weary left-wing activists from within Israel would force Netanyahu from power, ending the political career of Israel’s lion and the main obstacle to an Iranian takeover of Palestine.

None of this worked. Instead, Netanyahu has used the war as an opportunity to behead the axis member by member. Hamas has lost control of the Gaza Strip. Its leaders, Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, are dead. Hezbollah’s arsenal and leadership have been wiped out. The Houthis’ attack on Red Sea shipping made the rest of the world angry at them. Israel has launched significant attacks on Iranian military sites, including an important nuclear site, with apparent impunity.

Syrian rebels took advantage of the chaos to uproot the Assad regime from Damascus for good. This is catastrophic for Iran’s current battle plan.

Assad was never a wholehearted member of the axis. His government was the only one among the axis that wasn’t Islamist. Reports for months now suggested he was trying to find a way out of the axis and into the moderate Arab world. But support from Iran and Hezbollah in the Syrian civil war was his lifeline. Assad needed Iran and Hezbollah.

Iran and Hezbollah, likewise, needed Assad. Without Syria, Iran has no territory to directly reach Hezbollah and Lebanon. Hezbollah was already reeling from Israel’s mauling. Now, if any group launches the final move to extinguish Hezbollah for good, there is little Iran can do. It cannot directly travel to Lebanon to rearm or defend Hezbollah with its own forces.

Iran’s whole strategy to attack Israel revolved mainly around its proxy empire in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. In just over a year, that empire has evaporated.

“The fall of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria marks the end of the greater Iranian project in the Levant for the foreseeable future,” Nicholas Carl wrote for the Institute for the Study of War. “The sudden loss of Assad deprives Tehran of its main entry point into the Levant and upends the core assumptions and ideas that have long underpinned Iranian strategy in the Middle East. This defeat comes as the other main pillars of Iranian influence in the Levant—Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon—are badly diminished from months of fighting the Israel Defense Forces. These dynamics amount to the collapse of the axis of resistance’s western front.”

Rebuilding the Axis

Iran’s proxies may be out of the picture for now, but Iran itself is still standing. The losses to its military in terms of numbers and funding have been minimal. It still has a massive economy for the region and enjoys the patronage of such powers as Russia and China. It is on the cusp of developing nuclear weapons. In all likelihood, nobody aside from Netanyahu is hoping for regime change yet. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps holds enough of a grip on the country to stamp out a revolution.

Iran also hasn’t changed its goals. It still wants Jerusalem. But with the route in Israel’s north blocked off, what options does it have left?

The answer may lie with one of the few axis members still standing: the Houthis.

While they have sustained battle wounds of their own from Israel, the U.S. and Europe, the Houthis are still standing. They are still the ascendant power in Yemen and are still targeting commercial shipping off their coasts. As recently as December 9, a Houthi drone evaded Israeli detection and detonated near Tel Aviv.

Most importantly, the Houthis give Iran something few of its other proxies could offer: a bridge to new territory. Yemen’s proximity to the Horn of Africa has made it a natural transit point between the Middle East and Africa. Iran has used smuggling routes in Djibouti, across the Bab el-Mandeb strait from Yemen, to arm the Houthis. In turn, al-Shabaab, the jihadist group that controls parts of Somalia, acts as a middleman between Iran and other proxies. This year, the U.S. and United Nations accused the Houthis of directly arming al-Shabaab as well.

Somalia’s proximity to the Bab el-Mandeb makes it attractive. But it is on the fringes of the Islamic world and on the other side of the region from Jerusalem. Somalia in and of itself would not be satisfactory compensation to Iran.

But East and North Africa in general are ripe for revolution. Egypt’s coffers are draining as it gets sucked into international crises. Ethiopia, still reeling from a devastating civil war, is threatening war with its neighbors. Sudan is still in the middle of a civil war that Iran is already involved in. Libya remains a basket case that could implode at any moment. And the Sahel is in a never-ending state of unrest.

Israel’s northern border is more or less secure. A relatively inexpensive option for Iran with potentially explosive returns would be to attack from Israel’s south. This is what the Trumpet expects.

The Axis in Prophecy

The Trumpet bases this coverage on a prophecy in Daniel 11: “And at the time of the end shall the king of the south push at him: and the king of the north shall come against him like a whirlwind, with chariots, and with horsemen, and with many ships; and he shall enter into the countries, and shall overflow and pass over. … He shall stretch forth his hand also upon the countries: and the land of Egypt shall not escape. But he shall have power over the treasures of gold and of silver, and over all the precious things of Egypt: and the Libyans and the Ethiopians shall be at his steps” (verses 40, 42-43).

This prophecy dates to the “end time”—far into the future of when Daniel wrote it. The principal characters are two power blocs: “the king of the north” and “the king of the south.” The king of the north, as biblical and secular history demonstrates, is a German-led European power uniting today. (Our free booklet History and Prophecy of the Middle East elaborates.)

The other bloc is located south of Europe. It has a pushy, provocative foreign policy. Verse 41 mentions the glorious land, or the Holy Land, in the context of their clash—meaning the two blocs will fight over Jerusalem. Verses 42-43 suggest the king of the south commands a vast proxy empire throughout the Middle East and Africa. Since the 1990s, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has identified the king of the south as a radical Islamist bloc led by Iran.

To this point, however, most of Iran’s proxy empire included countries like Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Daniel 11 mentions none of these as part of Iran’s alliance. Instead, they are mentioned in Psalm 83, under the names of their ancestral peoples: the Philistines, Gebal, Tyre and the Hagarenes. Here, they are allied with Germany (“Assur”). (See our relevant Trends article for more information.) Because of this, the Trumpet has forecast that Iran would lose its proxy empire north of Israel and rebuild it to the south.

“Losing Syria will be devastating to Iran,” Mr. Flurry wrote in our August Trumpet issue. “Consider what happens if Germany wrangles Syria out of Iran’s hands. The Iranian terrorist regime would rightly fear that its dominance in the region was under threat. It would be concerned about preserving its alliance with Lebanon and Gaza and the Arab nations. This may cause Iran to heighten its aggression around Jerusalem and the crucial trade routes while it still can. In short, Syria’s shift away from Iran could trigger the events of Daniel 11:40!”

Iran lost this battle. But it’s not out of the fight yet. It still has a lot of weapons in its arsenal. Bible prophecy tells us to expect a resurgent Iran posing a greater threat than ever to the West.

To learn more, request Mr. Flurry’s free booklet The King of the South.