Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced September 1 that Brig. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jaafari would replace Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi as commander in chief of the country’s elite military branch, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (irgc).

The Revolutionary Guard, heavily involved in and supportive of terrorism since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, arms and finances such terrorist entities as Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as terrorists in Iraq and Afghanistan. It has been heavily involved in supporting Shiite terrorists in Iraq who have killed American soldiers. The U.S. is considering designating the irgc as a terrorist group.

The new head for the irgc comes from within the corps and has an extensive résumé, particularly in relation to operations involving Iraq. He commanded the irgc’s ground forces during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s; has served as deputy to the Supreme National Security Council secretary; has been involved in negotiations between Washington and Tehran over Iraq; and was the founder of the irgc’s Strategic Center.

Stratfor commented September 2 on the significance of Jaafari’s background and the timing of the appointment:

The background of the new irgc commander, and the timing of his appointment, indicates that the Iranians are preparing to fill the vacuum in Iraq once the U.S. military effects a drawdown/pullout. That the Iranians have placed their top Iraq hand in charge of the elite corps shows that Tehran is planning for operations in Iraq. It also should be seen as [a] diplomatic move to convince the United States that they are serious—they want Washington to know that if the United States conducts airstrikes against Iran, they are prepared to unleash havoc in Iraq.

This move follows Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s statements at an August 28 press conference that U.S. power in Iraq is being rapidly destroyed and that Iran is ready, with the help of regional allies and Iraq, to fill the vacuum. It appears Iran is convinced the U.S. is about to pull out of Iraq and is preparing itself to fill the vacuum there.

U.S. options against Iran are limited. Read the Trumpet’s June 2003 analysis “Is Iraq About to Fall to Iran?” and November 2003 analysis “Why We Cannot Win the War Against Terrorism” for more on this subject.