Middle East

Iran’s space program continues to develop with the launching of a research rocket and the inauguration of what Iranian state television called Iran’s first major space center on Monday. Iran hopes the launch of Explorer-1 will enable its first satellite launch later this year. As U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack points out, this “is just another troubling development, in that the kinds of technologies and capabilities that are needed in order to launch a space vehicle for orbit are the same kinds of capabilities and technologies that one would employ for a long-range ballistic missile.” The scenario becomes exponentially more concerning when Iran’s nuclear aspirations are considered. As Russia’s deputy foreign minister warned this week, long-range missiles are one of the components of nuclear weapons. In light of the U.S. national intelligence director’s statement on Tuesday that Iran “would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon” by the end of 2009, Iran’s space program may soon prove to be a great threat.

In Iraq, Iran is attempting to counter the U.S.-Sunni alliance by developing its own ties with the Sunnis. Iran’s Press tv reports that the Iraqi Army turned back the Iranian ambassador to Iraq at a checkpoint, preventing his meeting with the head of Iraq’s largest Sunni parliamentary bloc. Though this particular meeting was stopped, the fact remains that Shiite Iran is now working with Sunnis in Iraq—a further attempt to cement its influence in that country.

Further evidence has emerged of Iranian interference in Afghanistan. Afghan police and intelligence agents have uncovered 60 Iranian-made mines in a Taliban compound in the Farah province in western Afghanistan. These are only the latest discovery in an accumulating stockpile of Iranian weapons in the possession of the Taliban. Iran is in fact aiding both sides in the Afghanistan conflict. The Iranians have assisted the Afghan government by donating $600 million to various infrastructure projects since 2001. Tehran is manipulating both sides of the Afghan conflict in order to keep the U.S. bogged down and to enhance its own influence in the country.

Iran’s efforts in Afghanistan are clearly paying off: An independent assessment by nato’s former commander says nato’s forces in Afghanistan are in a “strategic stalemate” as the Taliban’s control grows. “Make no mistake, nato is not winning in Afghanistan,” said the report by the Atlantic Council of the United States.

Britain is apparently trying to make headway by training Taliban defectors. On February 4, the Scotsman, citing Afghan officials, revealed British plans to establish a training camp for 2,000 fighters aimed at inducing the insurgents to swap sides.

Meanwhile, next door in Pakistan, the Taliban has announced a cease-fire. Though unlikely to hold for long, this will give the Taliban a respite in order to regroup and come back stronger—and provide hope for the Pakistani government that terrorist attacks will not disrupt the upcoming parliamentary elections.

On Monday this week, Palestinian terrorists carried out a suicide attack in southern Israel, leaving one woman dead and slightly injuring 11 other people. The bombing came less than two weeks after Hamas destroyed a security fence between Gaza and Egypt, allowing terrorists and weapons to flow freely across the Rafah border. Three different Palestinian terrorist groups, including Hamas, have claimed responsibility for the attack. Stratfor reports that these terror groups often collaborate in the planning and carrying out of major terrorist attacks and so all may indeed have been involved in this attack. Apart from the logistical benefits of this, it also complicates Israel’s options of retaliation. The attack also demonstrated the falseness of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s earlier claim that he had disbanded the Fatah-linked al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade—one of the groups that claimed responsibility for this suicide attack. Stratfor believes that the attack is part of Hamas’s strategy to derail the already faltering peace negotiations between Fatah and Israel and also to pressure Fatah to come to a power-sharing agreement with Hamas.

Also this week, the chief of Israel’s Mossad said Syria has recently sped up its arms acquisitions, blaming this on its military alliance with Iran.

Europe

The European Union has been busy negotiating for gas supplies this week. On Monday, the EU opened its first diplomatic mission in Azerbaijan as part of plans to encourage more cooperation between Europe and Azerbaijan. Energy is the major reason for these efforts. Azerbaijan is key to Europe’s efforts to get gas from the Caspian and Central Asian region. “The trans-Caspian pipeline and also the Nabucco pipeline are of high interest to the European side and indeed we will work closely with our Azeri friends in order to make things happen,” said EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner. These two pipelines are designed to decrease the EU’s dependency on Russian gas.

Egypt has also announced its intention to supply Europe with gas. On Tuesday, Egypt announced plans to extend a natural gas pipeline into Turkey, where it could then connect with the proposed Nabucco pipeline. This makes the project more likely to be a success.

Romania became the fourth country to ratify the Lisbon Treaty this week. Romanian members of parliament voted to support the treaty 387 to 1.

The U.S. government has agreed, in principle, to modernize Poland’s air force. Poland wants its air force updated in return for allowing the U.S. to establish a missile defense system on Polish soil.

Asia

This week, Moscow warned the European Union against sending a peacekeeping force to Kosovo. On Wednesday, Russian Ambassador to the European Union Vladimir Chizhov told journalists that Russia considers the EU’s planned peacekeeping mission illegal. He went on to state that Russian officials will obstruct any attempt by Kosovo to join international organizations.

Russia and the EU keep coming into conflict over the issue of Kosovo’s independence. Such a buildup of tensions cannot continue indefinitely. Eventually it must lead to war or a pact. Europe is still relatively disunited militarily, so expect the Russian threat to lead to the formation of a Russo-European non-aggression treaty in a European attempt to buy more time for military unification.

Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda said on Thursday that he is likely to visit Russia sometime early this year in an attempt to resolve the Russo-Japanese territorial dispute over the southern Kuril Islands. Fukuda claims to have received a letter from Russian President Vladimir Putin inviting him to talks over the disputed territory. “I have come to understand that the president hopes to resolve the territorial dispute, so I hope to work with him proactively,” said Fukuda. Russia and Japan have never signed a formal peace treaty to end World War ii. As the nations of Asia continue to develop closer and closer relationships with each other, the relationship between Russia and Japan remains one of the few diplomatic cool spots left in Asia. This new interest in peacefully resolving their territorial dispute may indicate that this is about to change.

Africa

On February 2, rebel forces seized the capital in Chad, and the EU suspended plans to send troops; by February 4, government forces had defeated the rebels. The government has accused the Sudanese government of supporting the rebels in Chad. Though the Chadian government has threatened retaliation, Stratfor suggests Chad will attempt to bolster Sudanese rebels instead. The EU is sending 3,700 troops to Chad.

In Kenya, the death toll from the violence following December 27th’s fraudulent election passed 1,000 people. As the chaos escalates, calls for more robust international intervention are getting louder.

Anglo-America

Troubling trends in British education emerged this week. The government published a shocking 138-page report pressuring schools to promote a pro-homosexual agenda. Branding those opposed to that agenda as “homophobic bullies,” the report constitutes a stinging attack against the family. Some of its more disturbing pieces of advice include encouraging homosexual role models; forbidding the reinforcement of traditional gender roles, even by telling a boy to “be a man”; including same-sex parents in talk about marriage and family. The following is what is to be taught to students from the ages of 4 to 7: “Pupils understand that not all pupils have a mum and a dad, and might have important people in their life who are gay. Pupils respect these differences.” Older students are to be taught that “Families work for lots of reasons—not just because they have a mum and a dad. Same-sex parents can make good families.”

Meanwhile, some of the same British students learning to forget family have already forgotten the reality of their greatest prime minister. A poll released on Monday revealed that one in five British teens believe Winston Churchill was a myth. Meanwhile 65 percent believe King Arthur was real and led a round table of knights at Camelot. Almost half thought King Richard the Lionheart was fictional; over a quarter thought Florence Nightingale was a myth; half or more believed Sherlock Holmes, Robin Hood, and a woman that existed only in a Beatles’ lyric were real. Large majorities said they avoided history books and television programs.

British families are facing a rising tax burden under the Brown administration. Add rising mortgage costs, stagnating earnings and excessive debt, and the average annual income for British families has fallen by £1,300 (us$2,500). At the same time, the government faces a mushrooming budget deficit and is sinking further into national debt as a recession looms.

On Tuesday, Washington fumbled through an embarrassing about-face attempt regarding its intelligence on Iran’s nuclear program. National Intelligence Director John Michael McConnell stated in his Annual Threat Assessment before the Senate that Iran “would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon” by the end of 2009. “If I had ’til now to think about it, I probably would change a few things,” McConnell admitted. He was referring to December’s now-infamous National Intelligence Estimate, which stated that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. “The only thing that they’ve halted was nuclear weapons design, which is probably the least significant part of the program,” McConnell said, adding that uranium enrichment and ballistic missile development continue. The policy damage has already been done, however, as several nations have used the nie to justify their dealings with Iran and the media has run with the concept, leaving little coverage for McConnell’s recent statements.