German Chancellor Angela Merkel is a courageous woman. That courage was displayed in March, when she stood before Israel’s Knesset and expressed repentance on behalf of her nation for the “indescribable suffering” the Nazis inflicted on the Jews and Europe during the World War ii Holocaust.

It was a brave speech that came with tremendous personal risk. Why? Because, as Manfred Gerstenfeld wrote in the Jerusalem Post, “a majority of Germans probably disagree with several key statements she made here about her country’s past—including the mention of shame and guilt” (emphasis mine throughout).

It was an outstanding and refreshing example of selfless leadership!

Unlike most leaders these days, the German chancellor did what was right, despite the fact that it didn’t sit well with her voters back home, Germany’s evolving cultural and social climate, or her political counterparts and opponents. Moreover, her apology was a piercing condemnation of the German pope and the Vatican, which have consistently refused to issue a similar apology. To learn the full significance of Merkel’s apology, read “Angela Merkel’s Historic Holocaust Speech (But Does the Pope Agree?)” by Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry.

Such exemplary courage does not come without serious political consequences. “The apology could greatly damage her political career,” Mr. Flurry wrote. “This speech will have a negative impact on her political career and signals a dangerous turning point in the history of Germany.“

He was right!

Since March, Merkel’s popularity inside Germany has taken more than a few hits, while the popularity of her primary political rival has steadily improved. “German voters are more satisfied with Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s performance,” Bloomberg reported earlier this month, “than with that of Chancellor Angela Merkel.” In an early August Infratest poll, Germans were asked who they would vote for if they could elect the chancellor directly. Merkel garnered 49 percent, while 35 percent said Steinmeier. But here’s the rub: Merkel’s tally had dropped by 8 points in less than a month. Meanwhile, Steinmeier’s had risen by 6 points in the same short period. The 14-point gap between the two is the smallest since Infratest began conducting the poll in December 2007.

And it could get a lot narrower—fast!

That poll was taken before August 8, the day Russia invaded Georgia and set the German chancellor on a dangerous political tightrope!

Since then, Merkel has been forced to try to strike the balance between two opposing forces. On one side is a German public and government that is largely unwilling to antagonize Russia. On the other sits Germany’s neighbors (particularly former Soviet bloc states) and an international community that is looking to Germany to staunchly defend Georgian interests and deliver strong condemnations, backed with meaningful consequences, to Russia.

It’s a precarious position for anyone, but especially Angela Merkel, a former East German whose natural-born fear and distrust of Moscow has spurred her to beef up relations with the West and temper, often to the chagrin of political counterparts, the pro-Russian foreign policy of her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder. Germany’s iron lady lived under Communist Russia; she knows exactly what Russia’s invasion of Georgia means—for Georgia, for Europe and for the world!

It’s logical, then, that Merkel appears more robust than other German leaders (and much of the population) in her opposition to Russia’s invasion of Georgia, and remains staunch in her support of Georgia’s territorial and political independence, not to mention its goal of becoming a nato member. Consider Merkel’s visit to Georgia on August 17. Before stopping in Tbilisi to meet the Georgians, the German chancellor had a frosty meeting with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, during which she told him Russia’s image in Europe was worsening every day Red Army tanks continued to make imprints on Georgian soil.

Her meeting with Medvedev was a sharp contrast to her meeting with the Georgians. There, according to the Wall Street Journal, the chancellor “promised that Georgia would one day join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, despite Russian opposition, and proposed nato help rebuild Georgia’s military and infrastructure.” Her support of Georgian interests was so strong, said the Journal, that even Georgian officials were surprised by the “strength of Ms. Merkel’s show of solidarity.”

Merkel reiterated that solidarity this week, during a jaunt through northwest Europe. Speaking in Estonia Tuesday, Merkel sharply condemned Medvedev after he announced the Russian government had formally recognized the rebel provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. But she didn’t stop there. In what will undoubtedly be perceived as an act of antagonism toward Moscow, Merkel restated that both Georgia and Ukraine would one day become members of nato. “The decisions of nato at the Bucharest summit are intact,” she said during a lecture in the Estonian capital of Tallinn, “Georgia and Ukraine will be members of nato.”

That bold statement must infuriate the Russians!

One of the primary reasons Russia invaded Georgia was to send the message to former Soviet bloc states, as well as to America and Europe, that Russia was alarmed by nato’s encroachment into the Russian periphery, and that Moscow would never allow—and would even go to war to prevent—Georgia or the Ukraine becoming nato members!

The more Angela Merkel talks about Georgia and Ukraine joining the alliance, the more she antagonizes Russia!

That’s not going to go down well at home, where it’s becoming more apparent that many of Merkel’s fellow politicians and many other Germans are unwilling to jab the Russian bear. Poll results released by Germany’s zdf public television network recently showed the Georgian conflict has actually had very little impact on the Germans’ general approach toward Russia. “Some 63 percent of those questioned stressed German-Russian ties were good, while 25 percent said they were bad and 11 percent had no opinion on the issue. Meanwhile, only 36 percent believe that the Georgian conflict will have a lasting effect on German-Russian ties, compared to 56 percent who reject that view” (irna, August 15).

Fact is, with winter approaching, many Germans are acutely aware that their homes are heated primarily by Russian gas. They also know Germany and Russia are trade partners, and that Russia is a healthy importer of German-made goods and services. With its export-driven economy waning, the last thing Germans want heading into the winter is a frosty relationship with their gas supplier and one of their primary trade partners.

It appears the German people are simply not in the mood to irritate their aggressive neighbor right now and would prefer that their government come to some arrangement to keep the relationship on amicable terms. Therefore, if the perception takes root among Germans that Angela Merkel is antagonizing Moscow and threatening the Russia-German relationship, popular support for the chancellor—which is already dropping—could plummet faster and harder!

The same goes for the support the chancellor receives from her fellow politicians in Germany, many of whom are considerably more pro-Russian than Merkel. There are three figures we ought to watch carefully in coming weeks and months: former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and the former premier of Bavaria, Edmund Stoiber. Each of these men is staunchly pro-Russian, each is a mover and shaker in German and even European politics, and each possesses a vast network of influential contacts and the political acumen to formulate an exit strategy for Chancellor Merkel should she be perceived as being too antagonistic toward Russia.

Mr. Schröder, for example—who, since leaving the German government, has been working for Russian energy giant Gazprom and has been an avid defender both of Russian policy and of his good friend Vladimir Putin—responded to the Georgian crisis with a front-page interview in Der Spiegel, an influential German paper. During the interview, which you can read here, Schröder not only insisted that Georgia triggered the war, he implied the Russian invasion was justified and said there was absolutely no reason to terminate, or even temper, Germany’s relationship with Russia.

Remember, Mr. Schröder is the former chancellor of Germany. His words are given weight and respect by many German people.

Angela Merkel’s foreign minister could be more of a threat. The relationship between the two is edgy and unpredictable, to say the least. Although Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Merkel have appeared to meet the crisis in Georgia with a singular response, there’s no doubt—as the Trumpetexplained in detail recently—that Steinmeier is significantly more pro-Russian than Merkel, and much less enthusiastic about Georgia and Ukraine becoming members of nato. Watch Steinmeier: With an election campaign on the horizon, polls indicating that Steinmeier’s popularity is growing as Merkel’s weakens, and the German chancellor making herself less popular with the Russians, conditions could be ripe for the vice chancellor to make his play for the top!

The Trumpet wrote about this exact scenario back in November 2007.

The Trumpet has also watched Edmund Stoiber closely for some years, who, as we pointed out recently, has described Russia as Germany’s strategic partner.

The relationship between Russia and Germany is more tense than it has been in decades. There may not be a national leader on Earth under more pressure right now than the German chancellor. Merkel faces a tough and potentially career-destroying decision: Should Germany stick with America and nato, and distance itself from Russia? Or, should Germany—which relies on Russian energy and has developed closer economic and cultural ties with Russia in recent years—cut loose from America and nato, act in its own interests and strike its own security deal with Russia?

The Trumpet believes Germany—but not necessarily Angela Merkel—has made that decision. Last week, in his address to students at Herbert W. Armstrong College, Gerald Flurry stated, “I believe it is very likely Germany and Russia have already cut a deal.” He fully explained this in his article “Russia’s Attack Signals Dangerous New Era” in the October issue of the Philadelphia Trumpet. In fact, as Stephen Flurry documented last Friday, the Trumpet has forecasted for decades that a modern-day Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement would occur between Russia and Germany!

Here’s what the intelligence agency Stratfor said August 20, two days after Gerald Flurry stated that he believed a deal had been struck between Germany and Russia:

Berlin is now reassessing its allegiances to Washington and nato, which would keep the country locked into the policies it made as an occupied state. Or Germany could act like its own state and create its own security guarantee with Russia—something that would rip nato apart. …Stratfor sources in Moscow have said that Medvedev has offered Merkel a security pact for their two countries.

While it appears some sort of deal has indeed been struck between Russia and Germany, the details remain scarce. What political figures inked the agreement? How supportive is Angela Merkel of the deal—a pro-American, pro-nato chancellor who tends to approach Russia with caution? Is she prepared to abide by the deal and dial down her antagonizing of Russia? Has the Georgian crisis, which could politically ostracize Merkel inside Germany, sparked a movement to oust the pro-Western leader and replace her with a pro-Russian chancellor?

We don’t know the answers to these questions, although they are certainly worth asking—and monitoring. We do, however, believe time is quickly running out on Angela Merkel’s courageous leadership! First, she went against German public opinion earlier this year when she apologized to the Jews for the Nazi atrocities committed during World War ii. Second, polls indicate her popularity was waning prior to the Georgian crisis. Third, we think that although she has qualified and tempered many of her condemnations of Russia’s invasion of Georgia, Merkel may have been too antagonistic toward Russia over the past three weeks, especially since it appears Russia and Germany have struck some sort of security agreement!

Lastly, Bible prophecy informs us that there is a strong leader of Europe about to rise on the scene, and much evidence suggests that leader will come from Germany. This individual will be a strongman, a king of fierce countenance, a cunning, subtle, dishonest and highly dangerous person. You can read about him in Daniel 8:23-25.

Do you see a “king of fierce countenance” (verse 23) when you look at Angela Merkel?

She certainly is a brave lady willing to defy public opinion and the opinion of fellow leaders and make courageous statements at great political risk. She is also a leader tottering precariously on a political tightrope as a result. She is a national leader whose time at the helm of a great nation is about up.

Informed by both Bible prophecy and history, we should thus watch for a much darker period of German leadership ahead!