Middle East

Tension is building between Israel and the Vatican over contested parts of Jerusalem ahead of Pope Benedict xvi’s visit to the country next week. Negotiations between Israel and the Vatican have been ongoing for the past 10 years concerning the handover of sites in Jerusalem and elsewhere in the country claimed by the Roman Catholic Church. Reports in the Catholic media imply that these negotiations are nearing their conclusion. While Israel’s Foreign Ministry denies the reports, idf Army Radio says that President Shimon Peres is pressuring Interior Minister Eli Yishai to surrender six properties demanded by the Vatican. Peres has been Israel’s key personality involved in negotiations with the Vatican for going on two decades. Though the prospect of handing over parts of Jerusalem to the Vatican is meeting with strong resistance by some in Israel, Bible prophecy reveals that the Vatican will be successful in its designs on Jerusalem—but it will take more than negotiation and diplomacy. For more, read Ron Fraser’s March 16 column, “Vatican’s Hidden Jerusalem Agenda.”

U.S. President Barack Obama met with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and Afghan President Hamid Karzai on Wednesday in Washington to discuss a common strategy to fight the growing Taliban insurgency. The talks continued at cabinet level on Thursday. Stratfor reports that in the face of a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan and a Pakistani government losing control over the border, the U.S. is in the process of downgrading its expectations of the war in Afghanistan. “The Obama administration is clearly alarmed about the developments in Pakistan, but also is beginning to understand its limits in the region” (May 5). Fears are growing in intelligence, defense and diplomatic circles over the spread of Taliban control in the nuclear-armed nation. Last week, Gen. David Petraeus, commander of America’s Central Command, reportedly said Pakistan may be just two weeks from falling to the Islamists.

Meanwhile, the Pakistani military began air and ground strikes against the Taliban in the Swat Valley. These efforts will only cause a backlash among Pakistanis as long as they are not strong and sustained enough to actually defeat the Taliban. A victory is unlikely considering the military had been trying to achieve this for over a year before it gave up in February and made the peace deal with the Taliban that is already defunct. With tens of thousands of people being displaced and national sentiment largely on the side of the Islamists, any “short-term tactical gains are unlikely to lead to any strategic victory over the jihadists,” writes Stratfor (May 6).

Europe

The Czech Senate approved the new EU constitution, aka the Lisbon Treaty, on Wednesday. This increases the pressure on Ireland to somehow foist the treaty upon its unwilling subjects. For more information on this treaty, see “Ten Things You Might Not Know About the Lisbon Treaty” from Jan. 9, 2008.

Tensions between Russia and nato have increased sharply this week as the alliance begins military exercises in Georgia. On Thursday of last week, Russia assumed formal control of the borders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Georgia’s two breakaway regions. nato condemned the move as a “clear contravention” of the ceasefire agreed by Russia and Georgia last August. Relations deteriorated when nato expelled two Russian diplomats from Brussels on charges of spying and Moscow retaliated by expelling two nato diplomats from Russia this Wednesday. This expulsion coincided with the commencement of nato’s exercises in Georgia. For more information on nato’s relationship with Russia, see our October 2008 Trumpet article “Russia’s Attack Signals Dangerous New Era.”

Asia

For the first time since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, institutional investors from mainland China will be allowed to invest in Taiwanese money markets. An announcement made by Taiwan’s financial regulator on Friday of last week ended a decades-old ban imposed amid fears that Chinese investment would make Taiwan economically dependent on the mainland. Already, China’s top telecoms carrier, China Mobile, has announced that it intends to buy 12 percent of Taiwan’s third-largest telecom operator, which would make it the first Chinese state-owned company with a stake in a Taiwanese company. For years, Beijing has claimed the island of Taiwan as a renegade province and threatened to use military force to bring it under Chinese rule. Now it appears that Beijing is cleverly taking advantage of the global economic downturn in order to interlace Taiwan’s economy with its own—thus making it more difficult for Taiwan to declare de jure independence at any point in the future. Beijing is happy enough to let Taiwan move closer to China, but once it has moved closer, the Taiwanese will never be allowed to move further away again. For more information on the future of Taiwan, read our Trumpet articles “Taiwan’s New Direction” (May 2008) and “Taiwan Betrayal” (August 1998).

German opposition to European Union plans regarding six former Soviet states worked to Moscow’s advantage at an EU Eastern Partnership Summit on Thursday. The summit was supposed to advance a plan designed to establish visa-free travel and free-trade relationships between the EU, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Of course, the Kremlin was highly critical of such plans, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov even likening them to blackmail. For fear of antagonizing Russia, several key European governments, led by Berlin, undermined the initiative and watered down the summit communiqué. Germany clearly puts a high priority on its relationship with Russia. For the third time in less than a century, Germany and Russia want to cement an alliance with each other. For more information on this alliance, read Stephen Flurry’s Aug. 22, 2008, column, “Berlin’s Secret Pact with Moscow.”

Latin America

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez continues to develop his country’s relationship with Iran, dashing hopes that he will mend his relationship with the United States. Chavez met with an Iranian delegation on May 2 in anticipation of a visit from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Chavez also met with the Iranian defense minister on May 6. The two countries are establishing a joint development bank, funded with $200 million. Ahmadinejad has postponed his trip until after Iran’s presidential elections. Just the same, on May 2—just a couple weeks after shaking President Obama’s hand—Chavez indulged in his customary rhetoric toward the U.S. in general, and President Obama specifically: “We categorically reject this infamy of Obama against Venezuela; for if any government has acted against the governments of Latin America it has been the Empire of the United States.” Venezuela and Iran now have common factories, financial ties, political alliances, and a shared hatred for the United States.

Anglo-America

China has “canceled America’s credit card,” Congressman Mark Kirk said Thursday of last week. The federal deficit is now more than $956 billion, one seventh of the nation’s gross domestic product and the highest since World War ii. A primary reason the indebted American economy has been able to function is that China has consistently purchased American debt; it now owns $1.7 trillion in dollar-denominated assets. Treasury data now shows that Chinese investors dramatically reduced their purchases of treasury bonds during January and February.

The latest “Study of the American Dream” survey by MetLife reports that Americans are dreaming less about happiness and success and more about just surviving. The study says that the nation has “experienced major changes” that will likely leave “a lasting impact on how Americans achieve and sustain the dream,” something that has “once again been revised—possibly to a greater extent than could have been imagined just one year ago.” Where previous generations generally defined the American dream as a combination of good family life, home ownership and a degree of financial security, the 2009 study found that the dream now consists of an almost singular focus on financial security. More Americans also define the dream not as a destination, but as a “never-ending chase.” The chase is going badly, because half of those surveyed said they could meet their financial obligations for only one month if they lost their job.

Britain, the birthplace of tank manufacturing, is giving it up. bae Systems, the last heavy-duty combat vehicle manufacturer in the United Kingdom, is readying to shut down its tank-building plant at Newcastle-Upon-Tyne and armor operations. The company said it was closing down the plants because it did not anticipate any new government orders. The Daily Mail opined May 2: “They have fought alongside British soldiers for generations, playing heroic roles on historic battlefields such as the Somme, Cambrai and El Alamein. They have carried famous names such as Centurion, Churchill, Cromwell and Crusader. But now, nearly a century after inventing the first armored warhorse—to storm through German lines in the First World War—Britain is to stop building its own tanks.” If Britain needs tanks in the future, it will have to rely on the Swedes to send them the chassis and the Germans to mount them with guns.

On May 2, the public version of the Australian Ministry of Defense’s 2009 white paper was released by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, which outlines the country’s defense priorities. These priorities include projecting Australian influence and power north into Indonesia, Stratfor reports, which is a far-flung and fractious nation that boasts the world’s largest national Muslim population (240 million)—and a place that a hostile power could easily coerce into hosting a military base that would project its power straight into Australia. The Royal Australian Air Force is looking to expand its capabilities and its geographic range, and the Navy is planning to double its submarine fleet and update its surface combat and amphibious warfare. Australian forces are currently designed to integrate with the U.S. military, but the white paper expressed some concern about the longevity of American supremacy. For more on Australia’s defense capabilities and relationship with the U.S., read Chapter 8 of our online booklet Australia—Where to Now?