In the most recent evidence of Moscow’s expanding regional reach, the Russian-Ukrainian relationship has taken further steps toward cooperation. Within a period of two weeks, Russia significantly lowered natural gas prices for Ukraine’s purchases in exchange for a military lease extension, Moscow offered to merge its state-controlled natural gas company with Kiev’s equivalent, and the two nations agreed to integrate their transport systems.

Natural Gas and the Black Sea Fleet

On April 21, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed an agreement with his Ukrainian counterpart, Viktor Yanukovych, extending the lease of a Russian naval base in Sevastopol for 25 years following its expiration in 2017. The deal came along with a promise by Moscow to give Kiev a discount of $100 per 1,000 cubic meters in the price of Ukraine’s natural gas purchases, and substantial discounts on other purchases.

The symbolic value of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet lies in Moscow’s desire to maintain a presence in Ukraine, which dates back to Catherine the Great’s 18th-century wars to expand Russia’s borders to the Black Sea. It is also an assertion of Russia’s sense of dominion over Eastern Ukraine’s sizeable Russian population. But the lease extension’s actual material value is questionable when compared to the natural gas discounts Russia granted Ukraine in exchange.

The disproportionate bargain suggests that Moscow’s overtures to Kiev are motivated far less by short-term financial goals than by a long-term desire to bring Ukraine back under its wing.

Gazprom-Naftogaz Merger

Then, on April 30, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin floated the idea to merge Russia’s state-controlled energy giant Gazprom with Ukraine’s gas monopoly, Naftogaz. The surprise offer, which is facing opposition from Gazprom shareholders and some Ukrainians, would make the relationship between Moscow and Kiev warmer than ever. “We discussed integration in the nuclear industry,” Putin said at a news conference in Kiev. “[T]he same could be done in the gas industry, and I propose to merge Gazprom and Naftogaz.”

Because 80 percent of Russian gas bound for Europe passes through Ukraine, Gazprom relies heavily on Kiev’s cooperation. Kiev in turn relies heavily on Russia’s natural gas to supply Ukraine’s energy needs. In the last two decades, Gazprom and Naftogaz have been engaged in numerous gas-pricing disputes, which twice resulted in supplies to European countries being turned off or decreased in the midst of winter. The merger would cement Ukraine’s indebtedness to its resource-rich neighbor.

Integrated Transport and More

Most recently, Russia and Ukraine agreed on May 5 to build an integrated transport system, in which the two nations would work together to improve the safety of the railway, water-based, air and automobile transport. Transport ministers from both countries said an array of agreements are being prepared, including plans for building a Moscow-Vienna railway through Ukraine, and cooperation on ship navigation in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Other major merger plans in the pipeline between Russia and Ukraine are in the hydroelectric sector, aviation production, nuclear fusion production, and defense.

After years of tension between Russia and Ukraine, these strides toward increased cooperation are significant. The Kremlin frequently accused Ukraine’s previous pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko of sacrificing Ukraine’s true economic interests in order to avoid falling into “Russia’s sphere of influence.” But Ukraine’s current president, Viktor Yanukovych, maintains a starkly different stance on Russia, and under his leadership the Russian-Ukrainian intergovernmental commission is laboring diligently to forge collaboration plans.

Vladimir Putin, who remains the true backstage leader of Russia, believes the “greatestgeopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century was the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. In April last year, Trumpet columnist Brad Macdonald wrote this of Putin’s statement:

The significance of that telling revelation is hard to overstate. That statement … provides an invaluable glimpse into the mind of the man who runs Russia, it lies at the core of current international relations, and it gives much-needed clarity and simplicity to the sometimes confusing and contradictory movements of Russia—the nation Winston Churchill identified as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. … Expect Russia to continue to be highly active in defending and enlarging its periphery; Ukraine will likely continue its gravitation toward Moscow. It’s highly unlikely we will see nato expand much further eastward.

The increasing cooperation between Moscow and Kiev makes plain that, through use of its military presence and economic influence, Russia is quickly enlarging its periphery. And, as predicted, Ukraine is gravitating toward Moscow. For centuries, Russia was an empire, and it is now working overtime to become one again. To understand the global ramifications of this trend, read Russia and China in Prophecy.