Massive GDP Revision: Is the Economy Back in Recession?
The U.S. Commerce Department released its most recent data on the gross domestic product June 25, revealing the economy actually shrunk by 2.9 percent over the first quarter of 2014.
The slump is the worst quarter result since the first quarter of 2009, when America was in the middle of the Great Recession. The data released Wednesday was also the biggest revision to a previous gdp estimate since 1976. The department estimated in May that the economy had shrunk by only 1 percent; earlier, it estimated it had grown by 0.1 percent.
Some economists pointed to the long, harsh winter for the reason behind the slump, but this new data indicates the economy has far deeper problems. From the big media headlines, however, you would never know it. After the Commerce Department released its data on June 25, headlines included: “We Just Got a Horrible GDP Report, and Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Care” from Business Insider, and “3 Reasons Not to Freak Out About -2.9 Percent gdp,” by cnn.
Here is one reason you should care: The economic slump of this first quarter was actually bigger than the contraction in the first quarter of 2008—the start of the Great Recession. In 2008, the economy went from a growth of 1.5 percent in 2007 to contracting by 2.7 percent, a 4.2 point swing. Moving forward to 2014, we had a growth rate of 2.6 percent to finish 2013, only to contract by 2.9 percent in the first quarter (a 5.5 point swing).
We all remember what happened next in 2008.
Some economists are already looking for a huge upward trend in the second quarter of 2014; but 2008 also rebounded with 2 percent growth in the second quarter and came crashing down in the third.
“You cannot dismiss the data as being entirely a fluke,” said Cliff Waldman, senior economist for the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation. This economic slump is “a warning sign” that the recovery of America’s economy is more precarious than economists let on.
Unemployment (which is still at 6.3 percent) and debt loads are two of the bigger problems behind the drop in the economy. These factors hurt consumer spending, which only grew by 1 percent instead of the government’s estimated 3 percent.
The latest gdp revision could be a sign that the 2008 Great Recession, which never really ended, is about to take hold again.
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