Oil Bourse to Strengthen Prestige of Europe, Iran
Most Americans probably don’t worry about Iran too much. Talk of it developing a nuclear bomb probably strikes a raw nerve—especially coupled with the Iranian president’s anti-Jew comments. But with our hectic lives, we have little time to think about it. The trouble is, Iran has been thinking a lot about you. Its leaders are keen on America’s destruction—and that means you. That’s why one of the most underreported stories of 2006 deserves America’s attention.
In March 2006, Iran is planning to launch an oil bourse. As it is understood, the bourse (a trading mechanism where someone sells and another buys) will sell oil in euros. Iran seeks to strike at the twin pillars of U.S. economic dominance: dollar reserves and confidence in the American economy.
This plan, if carried out, would strengthen two fast-rising power blocs: Europe and Iran.
For half a century, the American dollar has been the reserve currency of the world. Seventy percent of all currency reserves are held in American dollars.
This has a lot to do with the fact that oil, the most important commodity in the world, is mostly priced in U.S. dollars. The majority of countries, being oil importers, are generally forced to buy their oil in U.S. dollars. Along with related economic considerations, this encourages them to keep most of their foreign currency in dollars.
In turn, the debt-burdened U.S. economy is dependent upon the high demand for its currency in order to remain afloat. Sale of the U.S. dollar, in one way or another, funds major national debts. The day this demand comes to an end portends disaster for the American economy. This is where the seemingly innocuous subject of an Iranian oil bourse becomes anything but harmless for America.
The proposed March 2006 launch of the Iranian oil bourse, if successful, would give the euro a foothold in the international oil trade, solidifying its status as an alternative oil transaction currency. This could be a catalyst for a major currency flight from the dollar to the euro—and a disaster for America.
Here is why.
Europe, among other major dollar-holding nations, will no longer have to buy dollars to purchase oil. For Europe, and any other country that might buy on the euro-denominated bourse, this means a shift away from the dollar reserve. The consequences for America would be immediate. Sale of Treasury bills to foreign nations would be curtailed as the purchase of euros accelerates. This would injure America’s capacity to finance its national debt. With this, Americans would feel more than a pinch. The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability predicted, “As countries and businesses converted their dollar assets into euro assets, the U.S. property and stock market bubbles would, without doubt, burst.”
Conversely then, as nations increasingly switch currency reserves from the dollar to the euro, dealing a considerable wallop to America’s global prestige, Europe’s stature will mature. Moreover, with Europe stabilizing under the beating heart of Germany’s economy, foreign nations could seemingly begin to look to Europe’s leadership rather than that of America. For Europe, which has sought an identity independent of America’s foreign-policy initiatives for the last half century, the bourse could act as a catalyst to propel the Union into a greater global standing. Again, America will receive the short end of the stick.
Also, a dollar flight and subsequent purchase of euros would strengthen the European economy. The European economy is poised, should the bourse proceed, to receive a major jolt of economic confidence. By contrast, America’s economy, which stands or falls on consumer confidence, could receive a death blow.
For Europe, a flush of cash would offer new opportunities to finance pan-European projects like defense and armaments. According to an Oct. 13, 2005, report by Associated Press, Britain and France have called upon their European allies to beef up defense spending. Up to now, European states have been cutting spending on defense budgets and falling well short of the American benchmark, which is over $450 billion annually. The problem is, nobody has the money. According to British Defense Secretary John Reid, his challenge is trying “to convince our colleagues to try and find a reasonable amount of money.” Right now, the European Union spends only about $218 billion on defense each year, creating glaring gaps in European defense—something a heavy amount of purchasing of euros instead of dollars could fix.
According to nato figures, America spends 3.9 percent of its annual budget on defense. Remember, foreigners help finance that budget by buying dollars, so a switch to euro reserves would also have the added effect of striking at America’s ability to finance its military.
As an influx of cash could begin to solve some of the most divisive problems between European states aspiring for a united Europe, European unity could receive a shot in the arm. Right now, Germany is emerging as the uncontested leader of European policy initiatives east of the Danube by effectively dealing with the Russian bear. But also, it is emerging as the internal voice for change within the Union itself. A cash-rich Union—which over the last few years has been persistently hampered by budget constraints and internal squabbling over transfer payments to different states—would be positioned to focus on issues of unity and policy. The bourse, then, could help to eliminate divisive cash problems and open opportunities for a newly resurgent Germany to ply its version of the European Union.
For itself, Iran no doubt has multiple motives for making this move. For one, it makes sense economically, especially since the European Union is Iran’s biggest trading partner. More importantly, it would strike a blow to Iran’s archenemy America. Finally, making Iran the main hub for oil deals in the region would help drive the Islamic Republic forward in its quest for regional supremacy.
As Gerard Baker puts it in a January 27Times Online article, Iran is already on the threshold of creating a new moment in the history of the world, ranking its world-changing influence up there with Hitler and the Bolshevik Revolution. Couple its push for a new oil-exchange mechanism with Baker’s observations and you have a position where “No country in a region that is so riven by religious and ethnic hatreds will feel safe from the new regional superpower.”
George Perkovich, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, stated it frankly: “It’s part of a very intelligent, creative Iranian strategy—to go on the offense in every way possible and mobilize other actors against the U.S.” (Christian Science Monitor,Aug. 30, 2005).
Obviously, Iran is eager to eliminate American influence. For Iran, which foresees a “clash of civilizations” between Islam and America, undermining the dollar could prove to be its best and most effective strike against a more capable military foe. As one commentator put it, the impact of the Iranian oil bourse on the U.S. dollar and the follow-on effect on the U.S. economy could be worse than Iran launching a “direct nuclear attack.”
Should the bourse proceed, watch for a U.S. dollar flight into euros—and for the corresponding fall of America’s twin economic pillars, the dollar reserve and confidence in the American economy. With the Iranian oil bourse, Americans could end up holding the bag, and Europe and Iran the prize.