President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela certainly does hate the U.S.—especially its president. A typical pronouncement: “The imperialist, genocidal, fascist attitude of the U.S. president has no limits. I think Hitler would be like a suckling baby next to George W. Bush.”

Despite Chavez’s public hatred for the U.S., despite his claim that President Bush is about to invade Venezuela, despite his threats to stop exporting oil to the United States, some analysts claim the Venezuela situation isn’t really a problem at all. As long as Venezuelan oil continues to pump, they reason, the United States has everything it needs from Caracas. In turn, Venezuela needs U.S. dollars for its oil, a situation it cannot change. As long as that status quo remains—or so the logic goes—Washington is happy to ignore the anti-U.S. raving of Hugo Chavez.

The analysis is right—but also very wrong.

Venezuela’s heavy, highly sulfurous crude oil requires special refineries, which could act as a deterrent to other buyers; Chavez does rely on the United States as an oil purchaser. Also, the U.S. is relatively close to Venezuela—five days by tanker—which keeps the price of oil manageable. In contrast, the cost of doing business with energy-hungry China would be much greater because of its distance from Venezuela. Those factors do give the U.S.-Venezuela oil relations a guise of stability.

But that short-term analysis of the oil situation ignores one inescapable reality: In the long term, Venezuela is not a stable supplier of oil to the United States. Venezuela would love to quench its thirst for wealth with another country’s oil allowance. President Chavez would likely never send another barrel of oil to the U.S. if he thought another country would pick up the slack; at some point, other countries will do exactly that. The cost of China purchasing oil from Venezuela will ultimately be China’s problem as its demand for oil multiplies over just a few short years. Demand for the black liquid that fuels the global economy is increasing everywhere, not just in the U.S. When other countries want—and are able to buy—Venezuela’s oil, Chavez’s delight at letting U.S. oil taps run dry will be unspeakable.

Even if oil were not part of the equation, though, consider the United States’ reputation. In the last couple of years, anti-U.S. sentiment has spread through Latin America like crying through a chilly nursery; Hugo Chavez has been the loudest voice and often the instigator. The new Bolivian president Evo Morales used the slogan “long live coca, death to the Yankees” in his election campaign. With elections set for this year in many Latin American countries, anti-Americanism is the one common theme across every political party. Washington can thank President Chavez for, if not outright creating that sentiment, leading it forward with anti-U.S. battle cries.

Consider also that Fidel Castro’s regime in Cuba might have collapsed by this point if not for the aid he has received from President Chavez. Without the Soviet Union to subsidize Cuban oil after the Cold War, Castro might not have been able to maintain his position without relief from Caracas.

Perhaps Washington officials do think the Venezuelan situation doesn’t matter as long as oil continues to flow to the U.S. One analyst goes so far as to say that “if all of South America were swept by a Bolivarian revolution, it wouldn’t hurt the United States.”

If the long-term stability of the United States oil supply is not a concern, perhaps these analysts are right. If it does not matter that the democratic principles Washington espouses for the Middle East are leaving Latin America in country after country, then the example Chavez sets does not matter. If it does not matter that the entire region will eventually use its considerable resources to support another superpower—as Bible prophecy guarantees us—then the analysis is correct.

But if Washington has any interest in improving its international reputation, securing its oil supply, or preventing future enemies from grabbing resources on which it relies, then President Chavez is more than simply a harmless annoyance. He is another sign of how weak the United States has become while other global powers—especially the European Union and the Russo-China alliance—are growing exponentially stronger.