In the last few months, the Gulf Cooperation Council (gcc) member states of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (uae), as well as Jordan, have reacted against the danger Iran poses for the long-term peace and stability of the Middle East, and are willing to put money and diplomacy where their mouth is.

Events in the Middle East have been unfolding rapidly in Iran’s favor, making moderate Arab governments pensive and nervous. To understand why, it is important first to understand the challenges that a strong Iran poses in the Middle East—from revolution, to America giving ground to Iran in Iraq, to oil, to Hezbollah, to Hamas, to nuclear power.

While the general populaces of Arab countries agree with Iran that the United States needs to be kicked out of the region and Israel driven into the sea, certain governments must walk a different path than the general public. The reason boils down to self-interest. While the general populace favors the same causes that Iran champions, many politicians are in no hurry to see Iran climb to the top of the Middle East power pyramid and dominate them. This means, of course, that they must strike a careful balance between checking Iranian power and still appeasing their peoples. Imagine juggling while walking a tightrope.

The pull of Iran’s revolutionary gravity on moderate Arab countries is strong. As Amir Taheri put it, “The Islamic Republic is unlike any of the regimes in its environment, or indeed anywhere in the world. Either it will become like them—i.e., a nation-state—or it will force them to become like itself” (Commentary, November 2006). As Taheri further explains, because of Iran’s revolutionary birth, it is predisposed to clash with anyone or anything that objects to its existence or impedes its revolutionary goals. It is not hard to see such an ideology posing a threat to the status quo and power among moderate Arab nation-states.

Also making these leaders nervous is the fact that, in addition to the threat its revolutionary cause poses, Iran is looking stronger in Iraq.

America appears increasingly weak in Iraq. Iraq is in crisis, and despite President Bush’s efforts the pressure on the U.S. to leave is growing fierce. The high public approval for strong antiwar political positions, loudly voiced by the Democratic Party, demonstrates that the American public has largely lost its will to stay the course in Iraq.

One may think the prospect of America leaving Iraq would be embraced by moderate Arab governments. Not so. Again, though the people may rejoice at such a prospect, the governments are far less enthusiastic. Why? Because today, America is the only bulwark against Iranian power pouring into the Gulf region and exerting a dominating influence over their nations. Before the American-led invasion of Iraq, Iran was surrounded by Sunni countries including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Afghanistan and most of the gcc states. Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was Iran’s biggest deterrent; the two countries fought each other to a standstill in an eight-year war. However, the American war in Iraq punctured this equilibrium. By removing Hussein, the U.S. made way for a coalition government heavily favored toward Shia interests. Thus, today, Iran’s influence in Iraq is steadily growing.

Now the situation is such that America’s exit strategy for Iraq cannot exclude Iran. America views Iranian cooperation as the key to its successful exit. Already, as the Trumpet has catalogued, it has been seeking Iran’s cooperation in addressing the problems in Iraq.

America abandoning Iraq, then, would serve Iranian interests—and moderate Arabs countries are keenly aware of this. Thus, they want America and its troops to stay, and have warned of the potentially devastating consequences of an American withdrawal.

Meanwhile, in addition to its growing political influence in Iraq, Iran has its hands on the controls of the world’s economic engine. One Iranian official, in warning the European Union not to implement sanctions against its nuclear weapons program, recently threatened, “We have the power to halt oil supply … down to the last drop.” How could Iran make good on such an outrageous threat? It borders the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy trade route.

The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz should not be underestimated. Forty percent of the world’s crude oil travels through the straits daily, including two thirds of Saudi oil. The U.S. Energy Department estimates that by 2025, 60 percent of the world’s oil exports will travel through this narrow checkpoint. The world depends on access to the Hormuz Straits to gain Saudi, Qatari, Kuwaiti and Iraqi oil and gas, as well as other petroleum products from the uae.

Not only is Iran gaining unprecedented power in the Middle East, it is willing to use that power to undermine individual nation-states directly—like Iraq, Lebanon and Israel—through terrorist organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas in order to dominate the region. So what’s to say moderate Arab nations aren’t the next victims on Iran’s hit list? Several Arab states have Shiite minorities sympathetic to Iran that could cause all sorts of problems for their ruling governments.

With this in mind, moderate Arab states are left with a few options: 1) stare at the problem and do nothing; 2) stay the course with a dramatically weakened American president; or 3) band together to check Iranian power. The third of these appears increasingly to be the one they are taking. Plans to build a stronger coordinated alliance between moderate Arab states are taking shape in three ways.

First, fearful of Iran’s growing influence in the Middle East, moderate Arab states are poised to embark on a multi-billion-dollar military spending spree. According to Tim Ripley of Jane’s Defense Weekly, Gulf states have earmarked more than $60 billion for arms. Rich with oil revenue, Saudi Arabia has earmarked close to $50 billion for fighter aircraft, attack helicopters, cruise missiles and some 300 new tanks. The uae is figured to spend $8 billion on a rapid reaction force and missile defense. The purpose of this build-up, while appearing defensive in nature, is to show Iran that, if need be, force can be met with force.

Second, the gcc, led by Saudi Arabia, supports American intervention in destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities. The bottom line is that moderate Arab states do not want a nuclear-armed Iran.

The third point of action being taken by Arab states is the decision by Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf countries, as well as Jordan, to develop a “peaceful” nuclear program. The Associated Press wrote, “King Abdullah ii said Friday that Jordan wants to develop a peaceful nuclear program, joining Egypt and Arab Gulf nations in considering a nuclear option. Arab nations are fearful over the West’s failure to stop Shiite Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which they worry will lead to Tehran having an atomic weapon” (January 19). Of course, then, the underlying theme of moderate Arab nations developing peaceful nuclear programs is to check Iranian power.

Meanwhile, in addition to these listed efforts, an important option has also begun to emerge that has the potential to spectacularly shift the Middle East balance of power away from Iran. In a future article, we will explain what this emerging option is.