China to Stop Buying U.S. Debt?

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China to Stop Buying U.S. Debt?

China is investing in strategic resources instead.

China has just under $2 trillion invested in America. Its appetite for U.S. debt allows the American government to continue to spend as if there is no tomorrow. But tomorrow is nearing. China is getting fed up with buying America’s debt. In a global recession, a lot of strategic assets are priced cheap, and China has a lot of money.

According to official figures, China owns $1.95 trillion in foreign assists. Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations says that in reality the figure is around $2.3 trillion. Setser estimates that $1.7 trillion of these assets are dollar denominated, making China the largest creditor to the United States. Last year, China lent America $400 billion—a sum equivalent to more than 10 percent of China’s gross domestic product.

“Day after day, China is the single biggest buyer of treasury bonds in the market,” wrote Setser in a recent report. “Never before has the U.S. relied so heavily on another country’s government for financing.”

But America may not be able to rely on China for much longer. “China is beginning to behave like a normal creditor,” warned Setser. The Financial Times details how China is thinking of investing its vast sums of money elsewhere (emphasis mine throughout):

China’s near $2,000 billion (£1,380 billion, €1,560 billion) in reserves, the world’s largest, are often viewed outside the country as a great strength—an insurance policy against economic turbulence. But within China, they are increasingly seen by the public and even some policymakers as something of an albatross—a huge pool of resources not being used at home that will plunge in value if the U.S. dollar collapses. Why, people ask, should such a relatively poor country bankroll such a rich one?

The article goes on to warn that “the consensus behind recycling foreign currency into U.S. government securities is coming under attack.”

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (safe), the organization that manages most of China’s reserves, last week announced it was thinking of changing its strategy. “We will actively expand channels and ways to use the foreign exchange reserves. In particular, we will explore how the reserves can better serve domestic economic development,” said deputy director of safe, Deng Xianhong.

Even Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China’s central bank, earlier this month asked, “Is it time for China to consider using the reserves somewhere else, instead of concentrating too much on the United States?”

Instead of purchasing more U.S. treasury bonds, China is looking to use the money to buy up strategic assets. Many foreign firms are available for bargain basement prices due to the global recession.

Already, state-owned aluminum group Chinalco plans to invest $19.5 billion in Rio Tinto Ltd in the largest overseas investment by any Chinese company. State-owned metals trader Minmetals plans to buy Oz Minerals Ltd, the world’s second-largest zinc miner, for $1.7 billion. State-owned China Development Bank will lend $25 billion to two Russian oil companies to be repaid through oil supplies. And state-owned Hunan Valin Iron and Steel Group has agreed to pay $650 million for a 16.5 percent stake in Australia’s Fortescue Metals.

But this is just the beginning.

“In the next stage, we will actively support the country’s need for forex reserves to expand domestic demand and increase imports,” said Fang Shangpu, another deputy director of safe. “We will provide financing support to companies investing abroad and serve the country’s economic growth.

According to the Shanghai-based National Business Daily, China also plans to use money from its $1.95 trillion in exchange reserves to set up a special fund to finance offshore oil extraction.

On Tuesday, Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming left for Europe at the head of a 300-strong team to go on a multiple-billion-dollar spending spree. The group could spend $2.2 billion or “considerably” more on technology and manufacturing equipment, according to the China Daily. They went to Europe rather than the U.S., said Commerce Ministry spokesman Yao Jian, because “Europe has an obvious edge in providing us with the equipment we need.”

The Chinese see that America’s economic policy could drastically reduce the value of their holdings in dollars. China cannot completely abandon the U.S. dollar without severely damaging the value of U.S. dollar assets that it already holds.

But now that America is creating trillions of dollars of more debt, China’s U.S. investments are going to get damaged anyway. With that realization, China is thinking about spending its money elsewhere. It has signaled that it will keep buying U.S. treasury bonds, for now. But Americans should be worried that many Chinese officials are looking for other places to put China’s money.

America’s days of unlimited borrowing are almost over. For more information, see our article “How This Recession Could Change the World.”