The U.S. is on schedule to end combat operations in Iraq by August 31, U.S. President Barack Obama told the national convention of the Disabled American Veterans in Atlanta, Georgia, on August 2.

Out of the 65,000 troops currently stationed in Iraq, 50,000 will remain until the end of 2011 to support and train the Iraqi security forces. When Obama came to power, 144,000 soldiers fought in the country.

However, the troops are leaving a country that is far from stable. Elections were held in Iraq five months ago, but the political parties have yet to form a ruling coalition—raising the specter of civil war.

Violence is on the rise, with July being Iraq’s deadliest month since May 2008 with 535 dead, according to Iraq’s official figures. U.S. figures show that just 222 people died.

Of course, the 50,000 remaining troops will still engage in some fighting. “[T]here are still those with bombs and bullets who will try to stop Iraq’s progress,” said Obama. “The hard truth is we have not seen the end of American sacrifice in Iraq.”

Naturally, Iraqis are nervous about America’s pullout. “The U.S. withdrawal will pave the way for the militias and armed groups to work freely, and they will activate their operations again,” Samer Ahmed, a worker in Baghdad, told Reuters. Militants killed Ahmed’s brother in 2007.

“I believe Iraq’s security situation will deteriorate severely. A civil war is coming to devour everything in Iraq,” he said.

“Iraqi security forces are still unable to maintain the security in Iraq,” Baqer Sadeq, a 21-year-old university student, told Reuters. “The U.S. withdrawal from Iraq will pave the way for the violence and sectarian fighting to return.”

“It is a U.S. duty to make Iraq a stable country,” said Mohammed Saadon, a government employee in Baghdad. “The U.S. withdrawal from Iraq will have a negative impact, worse than the decision to disband the Iraqi Army in 2003.”

“It will leave Iraq facing a security vacuum and will open the way for militias and foreign interference,” Saadon said. “The U.S. military presence in Iraq was like a shield in the face of all interference and terrorist acts.”

Of course there is one country in particular that is well-placed to intervene in Iraq once America pulls out.

“With the absence of an agreed-upon government and with political rivals threatening that the situation could deteriorate into renewed civil war, the political vacuum gives Iran space to interfere in Iraq’s affairs,” wrote Zvi Bar’el in Israel’s Haaretz. “Iran wants there to be a prime minister in Iraq who will be an Iranian ally and follow Iranian orders.”

Iran has a mixture of hard and soft power in Iraq. A number of Shiite military and political groups report to Tehran. Iran and Iraq recently signed a preliminary agreement for Iran to export 300 million cubic feet of gas a day to Iraq.

Iran is Iraq’s biggest trading partner, with trade volumes expected to hit $10 billion this year.

Religious tourism is one of Iraq’s biggest businesses, second only to oil exports. The industry is controlled almost entirely by Iran.

Iran has a lot of levers it can pull in Iraq, but it doesn’t have full control of the country yet. After five months of wrangling, it still hasn’t installed a pro-Iranian government in Baghdad.

But with the U.S. leaving the country, it is only a matter of time before Iran takes over.

“America’s war in Iraq has now lasted almost twice as long as its involvement in the Second World War,” said the bbc’s James Reynolds. “That war … ended with a clear victory. The war in Iraq will end with a withdrawal, not a win. Iraq isn’t safe, it isn’t stable, but America has now had enough.”

The Trumpet has been saying for years that Iraq would fall to Iran. As the U.S. pulls out, watch this happen before your eyes. For more information, see our article “Is Iraq About to Fall to Iran?”