Iran and Hezbollah’s Psychological Victory
In its current offensive against Israel, Hezbollah has already won a victory. Iran has already won a victory. Radical Islam has already won a victory. That victory is psychological.
Whereas much of the Western media present Israel’s pounding of Lebanon as Israel being in a position of strength and Hezbollah as the weak party—that is not how the Islamic world sees it. Simply to engage Israel in battle—particularly a battle in which Israel is suffering casualties, Israeli citizens are undergoing missile attacks and idf soldiers have been kidnapped—makes heroes of Hezbollah terrorists.
The image of Israel’s military might has been weakened. Hezbollah has gained stronger credibility. Iran as a regional power is being looked to for a solution. Radical Islam is resurging.
Qatar-based newspaper Al-Watan reported that according to Syrian sources, “Hezbollah’s stance against ‘Israeli aggression’ has already resulted in the moral, political, and even strategic defeat of Israel’s security complex, which is currently facing a dangerous crisis” (ynetnews.com, July 19). Whatever the degree of truth in such statements, this clearly is the way Israel’s enemies see it—hardly an indication that Israel’s offensive is intimidating these Islamic peoples. Quite the contrary, it is galvanizing them.
Within the Islamic world, Iran is using the Hezbollah-Israel conflict to rally Muslims behind it. Even though the ruling regimes of some Arab countries—like Saudi Arabia and Egypt—are less than thrilled with the growing clout of the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis for the threat a dominant Iran poses to them, the populations of those countries are largely rallying behind Hezbollah. This presents these Arab states with another problem: The Hamas-Hezbollah assault on Israel has the potential to embolden radical Islamists in these countries—even to the point of ousting their secularist, authoritarian governments.
With protests against Israel breaking out in cities across the Arab world late last week—in Egypt, Jordan, Yemen—the situation for Arab regimes has become more tenuous, and Iran’s sway more pronounced. Arab states cannot afford to be seen to defend Israel, and yet allowing the demonstrations to escalate poses a political risk. “Iran is going to aggressively promote these demonstrations in an effort to force the Arab regimes to the edge; those governments will have to struggle with allowing protesters to vent their anger while keeping a check on Iran’s rise in the region and keeping the Israelis at bay” (Stratfor, July 21).
Muslim passions are being enflamed across the Middle East and elsewhere. “[I]f Hezbollah is able to emerge with even a shred of military credibility from its encounter with Israel when the Security Council calls time, the outcome will be perceived as a huge victory for Islamism,” wrote Douglas Davis for the Spectator. “A new reality is in the air. Hezbollah’s attack last week represents the opening salvo in Iran’s war against the West—and anyone else who stands in its way” (July 22).