The noise and blaze of war that had engulfed the Middle East for 34 days settled down under a fragile cease-fire Monday. Both sides immediately claimed victory. Hezbollah’s leader crooned, “We are today before a strategic, historic victory, without exaggeration.” Israel’s leader boasted, “[T]he [Israeli Defense Forces] warriors always had the upper hand.” America’s leader concurred: “Hezbollah suffered a defeat in this crisis.”

These versions of this war cannot both be true. Events will soon put the lie to one of them, as it becomes clear whether Israel or Hezbollah took the hardest hit and grew most vulnerable.

Even the facts of what really happened during those 34 days reveal much.

Hezbollah proved its mastery of the missile attack, firing nearly 4,000 rockets at Israel in 34 days. Israel proved itself helpless to stop them; the fiercer Israel’s retaliation, the heavier the rockets came.

Hezbollah garnered the sympathies of the press and the international community, taking on legendary heroic status among Muslims worldwide. Israel became almost universally condemned for defending itself; the world branded its offensive—which was so restrained the enemy never seemed even daunted—as “disproportionate and excessive.”

Syria and Iran, Hezbollah’s sponsors, despite all the funding, training, weaponry, tactical support and manpower they supplied, emerged after 34 days without having suffered even a whiff of punishment. Israel, on the other hand, looks like it is due for another trying political shake-up at the highest levels.

In many ways, the war couldn’t have gone worse for Israel—nor better for Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, and the general forces of Islamist extremism.

This war altered the geopolitical reality of the Middle East.

Israel is a changed entity. It concluded 34 days of operations seeking protection from an international peacekeeping force, hoping the terrorists would oblige the UN and stop firing missiles. No longer is it the feisty, self-sufficient power of yesteryear.

Make no mistake: Any notion the Hezbollah threat has been permanently eliminated is wishful thinking. Lebanon immediately announced it would not forcefully disarm the group, expecting Hezbollah to disarm itself. The UN wasn’t even charged with the job.

In other words, Israel has stopped looking for a long-term solution to this problem. It is content with just buying time.

The Middle Eastern Muslim world is also profoundly changed. “In Lebanon, Hezbollah has emerged as a massive political force,” wrote George Friedman. “Syria, marginalized in the region for quite a while, becomes more viable as Hezbollah’s patron. Meanwhile, countries like Jordan and Egypt must reexamine their own assumptions about Israel. And in the larger Muslim world, Hezbollah’s victory represents a victory for Iran and the Shia. Hezbollah, a Shiite force, has done what others could not do. This will profoundly affect the Shiite position in Iraq—where the Shia, having first experienced the limits of American power, are now seeing the expanding boundaries of Iranian power.

“We would expect Hezbollah, Syria and Iran to move rapidly to exploit what advantage this has given them before it dissipates. This will increase pressures not only for Israel, but also for the United States, which is engaged in combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as in a vague confrontation with Iran. For the Israelis and the Americans, restabilizing their interests will be difficult” (Stratfor, August 15; emphasis mine).

Not exactly a victorious outcome for Israel.

The gravity of this historic moment can hardly be overstated. The Israel of wars past—winning decisive, lightning-fast victories over multiple Arab states—has been visibly replaced by an Israel that failed to defeat a fighting force of only a few thousand well-prepared terrorists.

Israel may feel it dodged a bullet this time—but the next time is almost certainly coming soon. Read “Jerusalem Is About to be Cut in Half” to find out what lies ahead for the State of Israel.