Gunmen surrounded a prominent Lebanese politician and slaughtered him in the streets of Beirut on November 21. Few doubt that the brutal murder of Pierre Gemayel, an anti-Syrian cabinet minister and modern patriarch of one of the nation’s leading Maronite Catholic families, was orchestrated by the Syrian government. The truth is, the elimination of Gemayel was a calculated step in a broader plan to dismantle the Lebanese government—and, in time, to reshape the entire Middle East.

When democratic elections handed anti-Syrian reformers control of the Lebanese government in the spring of 2005, the American government called it a sign of an “Arab spring” that was sweeping the Middle East. Elections in Iraq, Egypt and the Palestinian territories in 2005 flamed the enthusiasm—despite the fact that, particularly in Egypt and the Palestinian territories, radicals made significant gains.

At least a year has passed since all of these elections, and much of the excitement has been replaced with a sense of hopelessness. Civil war has erupted in Iraq. Islamic radicals continue to gain influence in Egypt. Palestinian politics are in disarray. And the story in Lebanon is just as grim.

Since its election, the U.S.-backed government of Lebanon has been steadily gutted of everything that made it the hope of the future for the Middle East. Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, the region’s bullies, have worked diligently to undermine the authority of Lebanon’s moderate government. Thus, under constant pressure from the radical leaders of Syria and Iran, not to mention Hezbollah inside of Lebanon, the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has done little to promote American and Western interests in the region.

Lebanon’s predicament worsened substantially this summer when Hezbollah, after launching and surviving a war against Israel, emerged with iconic status and even greater popularity among swaths of Lebanese than before. Given Hezbollah’s roots in and connections with Syria and Iran, many analysts feared this would extend the well-documented inroads those two nations had made into Lebanon even further.

Time has proven these fears to be justified. The accelerated infiltration of Iranian and Syrian elements into Lebanon, along with Hezbollah’s increasing influence, since the war—even under the noses of UN overseers—is undeniable. This has created the current predicament in Lebanon.

This nation, declared the hope of the future for the Middle East less than two years ago, is now on the verge of shattering into pieces.

The ramifications of this crisis extend beyond the borders of Lebanon. They involve the forces of radical Islam, Iran, Syria, Egypt, Israel, America, Europe. The fall of the Lebanese government would be a geopolitical earthquake felt across the globe. In the end, it could result in the re-drawing of the political landscape of the entire region.

Hezbollah, together with its allies in Damascus and Tehran, has a strategy to bring down the Lebanese government and set up a radical Islamist outpost in Lebanon. As Stratfor recently noted, it is using “a variety of methods to paralyze the government led by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora” (November 30).

The first stage of the strategy occurred last month, when six Shiite cabinet ministers abruptly resigned, throwing the government into turmoil. The murder on November 21 of Gemayel, Lebanon’s industry minister, with the government still in upheaval, was the second stage of the plan. This assassination was more than a gesture of hatred—it was a strategic move that left the “government one cabinet seat away from losing its constitutionality” (ibid., emphasis ours throughout). The death, resignation or mysterious disappearance of one more cabinet minister could bring down the Lebanese government.

Hezbollah’s strategy doesn’t end here.

The third stage to dismantling the government is particularly canny. This stage is designed to not only assure the final collapse of Prime Minister Siniora’s leadership, but also to boost support among the Lebanese for Hezbollah and pro-Syrian political parties and thrust these groups to the forefront of Lebanese politics. This stage began last week, when hundreds of thousands of impassioned Hezbollah and pro-Syrian supporters began protesting in Beirut against the U.S.-backed Siniora government. These protests began last Friday; a week later, there are no signs of them winding down. Analysts say the protests are now costing Lebanon $30 million a day.

Stratfor discussed how Hezbollah plans to use the protests to drum up support among the Lebanese: “Up to 1 million supporters are expected to take to the streets in Beirut. Hezbollah is keen on showing that it is working on behalf of Lebanese national interests, rather than the interests of its own Shiite sects. For this reason, [Hassan] Nasrallah [leader of Hezbollah] has ordered protestors to wave Lebanese flags and to refrain from brandishing Hezbollah banners” (ibid.). This crafty terrorist group is foisting itself off as the savior of Lebanon.

After seven tense days of standing off against one another, neither the government nor the protestors appear to be weakening. If anything, the protestors look to be settling in for the long haul. Stratfor reported on December 6, “Protesters have spent the past six days chanting slogans—‘Down with the U.S. government in Lebanon’ is a favorite—and also studying, smoking hookahs, praying, dancing and sleeping in makeshift camps in the streets. While the demonstrations have had a paralyzing effect on the capital, negotiations have failed to progress and the Lebanese government has yet to cave in to the opposition’s demands.”

Meanwhile, Hezbollah and its allies in Syria and Iran are planning the next stages of their assault. “Sources within Hezbollah claim the group’s next move will be to have more parliament and civil service members resign and to block access to the Rafiq Hariri International Airport by sending around 70,000 demonstrators to camp on the main highway. While the Lebanese army commander has made it clear that the airport will remain open and is off limits to the protesters, Hezbollah members believe the army will be unable to restrain a mob of 70,000 people,” Stratfor wrote.

The significance of these events cannot be overstated. The resignations, the assassinations, the protests—these incidents are infinitely more than a minor clash within the internal politics of Lebanon. The story of Lebanon is much grander. Lebanon is a bloody battlefield of a globe-girdling war between two great and powerful players.

Hezbollah and the protestors camped on the dusty streets of Beirut are not just a terrorist group and a few thousand disgruntled citizens. They are an extension of radical Islam, and specifically Iran, the king of Islamic extremism. The Lebanese government is under assault from radical Islam.

At the same time, being pro-American and anti-Syrian, the government of Fouad Siniora is an important bastion of moderatation in a region increasingly trending toward radicalism. The loss of the Lebanese government would be a deadly blow in the war against terrorism. A pro-Iranian government in Lebanon would embolden radical Islam and further empower Iran, providing it with a much greater presence on Israel’s northern doorstep. By attacking the Lebanese government, Hezbollah and its radical allies are, indirectly, assaulting America and its allies.

This is the context of what is currently happening in Lebanon. This is the dark reality underpinning the assassination of Pierre Gemayel.

To this point, Hezbollah and its allies in Syria and Iran have shown that they are prepared to do anything to bring down the Siniora government. Though there is a powerful anti-Syria and anti-Iran segment within the Lebanese populace, at this point the advantage appears to lie with Hezbollah. The Lebanese military simply does not have the capacity to deal with this state-backed organization enjoying growing popularity among the Lebanese themselves.

Unless the United States and Europe are prepared to provide military assistance to the Lebanese government—which is highly unlikely—the moderate government of Lebanon appears doomed, eventually, to collapse.

These events in Lebanon are testing the political fortitude of America and other Western nations. Radical Islam is pushing to see if there will be a reaction.

Fred Burton from Stratfor discussed the depth of strategy behind the assassination of Gemayel: “[W]hile it is not known definitively who pulled the trigger on Gemayel, there can be little doubt at the strategic level that Syria was the author of the plot. And given the Iranian signature on the strike, it appears that the actors—plausible deniability notwithstanding—are using the assassination to send a clear geopolitical signal to the West and, most important, to the United States. Washington is now facing pressure to engage both Damascus and Tehran in efforts to resolve the crisis in Iraq—a symbolic victory for states Washington long has deemed ‘rogue’ actors. Neither the Syrians nor the Iranians are keeping a particularly low profile at the moment, and Tehran at least has seemed quite eager to turn the knife, judging from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s public statements. The Gemayel assassination—coming at such a sensitive time for developments in the region—could be a similar show of bravado by Syria, intended in part to humble the United States.”

As the Lebanese government hangs in the balance, it’s important to see the full context of the story of Lebanon—to see the clash between two civilizations it represents: Radical Islam is facing off against the West. The collapse of Prime Minister Siniora’s government would be a massive victory for Iran and radical Islam, and another sign of America’s waning global power.