Iran Quits Syria

A month after Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria fell, Iran has almost completely evacuated the country. Syria used to be one of Iran’s most important proxies. But Damascus’s new rulers have made it clear that Iran isn’t welcome anymore, and Iran is backing out.

What’s happening: On January 6, United States State Department representative Barbara Leaf was asked if Iran had left Syria wholesale. “Pretty much, yes,” she responded. “It’s extraordinary.” Leaf went on to say Iran is now persona non grata in Syria. “Which is not to say they will not try to reinsert themselves, but [Syria now is] very hostile terrain.”

The Wall Street Journal cited “U.S., European and Arab officials” who said that “Iranian forces have largely withdrawn from Syria.”

Iran had thousands of soldiers stationed in Syria and had invested billions of dollars in military infrastructure and other projects. Today, all of that investment seems wasted.

A loss for Iran: Assad was not an Islamist, so his Syria was never the most wholehearted member of Iran’s “axis of resistance” against the West. But it served as an important land bridge to arm Palestinian groups and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Now, that bridge has collapsed.

Since October 2023, Iran has launched a multipronged attack against Israel through its proxies. Much of the attack came from Israel’s north, through Hezbollah and Syria. Iran’s leadership probably still hopes to get Syria back. But for now, it looks like Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has accepted that the days of using Syria as a proxy are over.

Where to now? Losing Syria is a huge blow to Iran. But Iran is still an Islamist, terrorist-sponsoring state seeking Israel’s destruction. The latest loss doesn’t mean Iran will change its worldview or long-term goals—it merely means Iran will have to change its strategy.

Learn more: Read “The End of the ‘Axis of Resistance’?”