China, Tibet and the Asian Balance of Power
Nations around the world were quick to criticize China. France said the European Union should consider boycotting the Olympics. German Chancellor Angela Merkel didn’t hesititate to express her concern over the incident. The United States told China to act with restraint. One major group of nations is conspicuously absent from this list however. Few powers in Asia have criticized China. Some have even come out to support it.
On Monday, March 10, the anniversary of Tibet’s 1959 revolt against China, a group of Buddhist monks and nuns held a demonstration in the Tibetan capital of Lhasa. Events quickly spiraled out of control. After the March 10 demonstrations, 50 to 60 monks were arrested. This led to a greater response from the monks and Tibetan people. By last Friday, full-scale riots had broken out.
Governments and human rights organizations around the world have accused the Chinese of being too heavy-handed in their actions. According to Tibet’s government in exile, 99 people have been killed by Chinese police forces. The Timesreports that up to 1,000 people have been detained. The Economist, which had a correspondent on the scene, wrote:
Under the gaze of troops armed with automatic rifles, bayonets and batons, residents of Lhasa’s old Tibetan quarter are now being allowed outdoors after many hours of cowering in their homes. Burnt-out buildings, smashed shop-fronts and piles of looted property are ubiquitous reminders of an orgy of anti-Chinese rioting. Lhasa is back under control, but with a heavy hand.
Security is particularly intense in the Tibetan quarter itself. Helmeted riot police are posted every few meters along its narrow, winding alleyways. Residents are subjected to identity checks as they walk around. In the heart of the district, in front of the Jokhang temple, which is Tibet’s holiest shrine, two armored personnel carriers are parked. On the front of one, big red Chinese characters read: “Stability is Happiness.” On the other it says “Separatism is Disastrous.”
So far, Europe’s reaction has been to call for China to hold direct talks with the Dalai Lama, Tibet’s exiled leader. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said the EU should consider boycotting the Olympics opening ceremony. All that the Western world has done, for the most part, is talk. No real action against China is on the table.
Still, voices from Asia have been even less condemning, and some even supportive of the People’s Republic of China. Russia called efforts to boycott the Beijing Olympics “unacceptable.” “We are expressing hope that the Chinese authorities will take all necessary measures to stop illegal actions and provide for the swiftest possible normalization of the situation,” said the Russian Foreign Ministry. “Russia has repeatedly declared that it views Tibet as an inalienable part of China, and considers the resolution of relations with the Dalai Lama to be an internal matter of the People’s Republic of China.”
Perhaps the most interesting stance is that of India. Historically, India has been a friend of Tibet. It has been the home of exiled Tibetans for more than 50 years. When a group of protesters set out from the Indian city of Dharmsala, the headquarters of Tibet’s government in exile, for the Chinese border last week to protest against China in the run-up to the Beijing Olympics, India banned the march. When the protesters planned to go ahead despite the ban, 100 people were arrested to be detained for 14 days. According to B. Tsering, head of the Tibetan Women’s Association, “Marches have been stopped before but they [the police] have not been so harsh as yesterday.”
This incident highlights how much closer India and China have become over the past few decades.
In 1962 the two countries were at war. China has also been a friend of Pakistan; it has been accused of helping Pakistan build its own bomb. This has done much to sour India and China’s relationship.
In recent years though, ties between the two have been getting stronger. In 2003, India aligned itself more closely with China on the Tibet issue when it officially recognized Tibet as part of China. Now China is publicly thanking India for its actions.
The fact is that China has grown too powerful for other powers to stand up to it over an issue like Tibet. “There’s generally a view that China is too big and too hot to touch in any but formal and restrained ways,” said Tony Kevin, a foreign-policy analyst at the Australian National University’s School of Pacific and Asian Studies. “Everybody can jump up and down and get into a huge lather about Darfur and so on, but with China and Tibet, it’s harder.”
It is not necessarily a threat of armed hostility that is causing nations to be careful. It is China’s economy that keeps them in check: China now has the world’s fourth-largest. It has been forging trade agreements with nations across Asia. No country wants to be locked out of that. A January report by the U.S. Congressional Research Service said China is increasing its influence in Asia by using its political and economic might as soft power.
Asian nations’ support of China over Tibet is not an isolated case. All of Asia is drawing closer together and further from the United States.
This past December, India and China conducted their first-ever joint military exercises to chants of “India and China are brothers!” The exercises went so well that India and China’s second joint military exercises will be held later this year.
The value of trade between India and China has increased over 3,800 percent in the last 15 years from less than $1 billion in 1992 to $38.5 billion in 2007. With bilateral trade growing at an annual rate of almost 50 percent and with a new agreement to increase Sino-Indian trade by $20 billion over the next two years, China will most likely overtake the United States as India’s largest trade partner in a matter of months.
And it is not just India and China that are becoming closer friends. All of Asia is becoming closer. As U.S. influence in the world wanes, watch for Asian countries to look to each other for more support. For more information on where this is leading, read our booklet Russia and China in Prophecy.