Middle East

Violence exploded this week in Iraq after several months of relative quiet. Iraqi troops have been targeting Shiite militias in the southern port city of Basra, with militiamen reportedly using mortar shells, sniper fire, roadside bombs and rocket-propelled grenades to repel security forces. Responding to the government crackdown, Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army is pounding Baghdad’s U.S.-protected Green Zone with rocket fire. In fact, the security operation has triggered a wave of Shiite violence throughout southern Iraq and in Baghdad. The results of the security crackdown could greatly impact the future of U.S. forces in Iraq. If the Iraqi government demonstrates it has the ability to, at least in part, bring a festering insurgency under control, America will have the rationale it is looking for to hasten troop withdrawal from the country. On the other hand, if the Shiite militias win out, the United States will be all the more forced to rely on Shiite Iran to reign in Iraq’s Shiites.

The results of Iran’s March 14 parliamentary elections reinforce a trend gaining ground in the Islamic Republic: the political empowerment of the Revolutionary Guard Corps. The irgc, originally formed to support Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1979, gained prominence in the protracted Iran-Iraq war and today is a full-fledged military force with its own ground forces, air force, navy, special forces and intelligence. It controls Iran’s missiles, and specializes in asymmetrical warfare, assassinations and other terrorist activities. The vote tally shows that the irgc could end up with 70 percent of Iran’s parliamentary seats. It appears Iran’s Islamic leaders, in an attempt to strengthen the regime, are handing over legislative power to the military. These commanders-come-politicians, accustomed to warfare, bombardment of civilian targets and food rationing during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, are hardened to civilian suffering and therefore virtually immune to economic pressures employed by the West. Don’t expect Iran to adopt a softer approach any time soon.

In an effort to counter attempts to convert Syria to the moderate Arab camp, Iran has given Damascus $1 billion to upgrade its army, Haaretz has found. Whether this will be successful, in the long term, however, remains to be seen. Associated Press reported on Thursday that Iran has also supplied Hezbollah with new rockets that have an increased range.

Yousaf Raza Gilani was sworn in as Pakistan’s new prime minister on Tuesday. Though Gilani was elected by a two-thirds majority in the lower house of parliament, two top leaders of the ruling coalition boycotted the ceremony, revealing the shaky nature of the new government. The first item on the new prime minister’s agenda was to order the release of the judges that were placed under house arrest by President Pervez Musharraf last November. This move not only spells trouble for Musharraf, but also for the United States. It indicates a government that is more concerned about quelling domestic concerns than cooperating with foreign allies. Pakistan’s aajtv reports that the new government plans to review its counterterrorism policy and its involvement in the U.S.-led war on terror. Pakistan’s support of the U.S. has faced fierce domestic opposition; with the country now being ruled by elected officials, the administration will clearly be more concerned about keeping its constituency happy than Musharraf’s autocratic regime was. Officials are already talking about negotiating with the country’s Islamist militants as an alternative to using force. The U.S. is at odds with Pakistan over this, but will likely be forced to accommodate its unstable ally more in its counterterrorism operations. “The rise of the parliament and the restoration of an independent judiciary will complicate matters between Washington and Islamabad,” says Stratfor, “because a democratic dispensation enhances a country’s leaders’ bargaining power” (March 24).

And finally, U.S. President George W. Bush extended an invitation this week to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to visit Washington in early May for further talks on the peace process.

Europe

The past week saw Europe’s clash with Islam heat up further. Last Saturday, Pope Benedict xvi baptized Magdi Cristiano Allam, a Muslim convert. Allam is a journalist and author, and an outspoken critic of radical Islam. According to Stratfor, “Benedict’s baptism of Allam will not go unnoticed in the Islamic world. The level of anti-Western sentiment among even mainstream Muslims is on the rise, and even they could take offense to such a prominent display.”

A second event guaranteed to offend Muslims was the release of a 15-minute anti-Koran film called Fitna, by Dutch politician Geert Wilders. “The government insists that you respect Islam, but Islam has no respect for you,” Wilders says in the film. Islam, he says, “wants to rule, submit and seeks to destroy our Western civilization. In 1945, Nazism was defeated in Europe. In 1989, communism was defeated in Europe. Now, the Islamic ideology has to be defeated.” The Islamic retaliation against the release of Wilders’s film could be drastic. Even before the film was released, Muslims were outraged. Online jihadist groups posted rap videos showing the beheading of Wilders effigies. With only a slight prod from Muslim leaders, riots could break out across Europe and the Middle East. “We expect the Dutch government to prevent screening of such a film. Otherwise, the Majlis MPs will call on the Iranian government to review its relations with Holland,” said Iranian Foreign Policy Chairman Alaeddin Borujerdi. He warned in January that the Muslim world would not tolerate any kind of insult to Islam and that “extensive repercussions from Muslims throughout the globe” would occur if the film was shown.

Asia

In what could be a harbinger of thawing relations between two countries that never even signed an official peace treaty to end World War ii, Russia and Japan have decided to form a civil nuclear energy alliance. Last week, Russian nuclear giant Atomenergoprom signed an agreement with Japan’s Toshiba Corporation wherein the two companies will work together on projects including nuclear power plant construction and nuclear fuel production. Analysts are predicting that this new alliance may become the world leader in the nuclear sector. Even though relations between Moscow and Tokyo are still somewhat tense from their World War ii days, officials from both countries are starting to realize they must work together if they are going to out-compete nuclear companies like France’s Alstom.

Japan’s new pro-Asian stance means it is tightening relations with more nations than just Russia. Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda’s refusal to visit a controversial shrine dedicated to Japanese warriors killed in World War ii has so impressed South Korean President Lee Myung-bak that he will back a proposed free-trade zone to include South Korea, Japan and China. Lee said that he shares Fukuda’s view “on strengthening diplomatic ties in Asia.” A free-trade zone including these three nations would constitute one of the largest trade blocs in the world, especially considering that both China and Japan are also in trade negotiations with the asean bloc.

India’s Tata Motors—the company that recently produced the world’s cheapest car—bought out luxury auto brands Jaguar and Land Rover from Ford Motor Company on Wednesday for $2.3 billion.

The world’s economic hub is shifting away from the United States as Asian nations buy up American industry and negotiate increasingly larger free-trade zones.

Latin America

In Argentina, farmers continue a strike to protest the government’s 10 percent tax increase on agricultural products—which have now hit a shocking 75 percent. In response, President Cristina Kirchner, just three months into her term, has announced that there will be no negotiation until the strikes stop. Stratfor has likened the situation to the 2001 currency crisis and predicts that the government will eventually have to back away from current policies, which promote short-term concerns over the long-term health of the economy.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez warned on Tuesday that his country’s relationship with the United States could deteriorate even further if Sen. John McCain ® is elected president. President Chavez has often expressed his boundless dislike for the current administration. Yet, he fears that Senator McCain might be worse. “McCain seems to be a man of war too. He said yesterday that Bush has been very tolerant with Chavez. He’s gone to Iraq to offer more weapons and more dollars—and more war,” said President Chavez. “[M]ay the people of the United States save us from greater madness.” Chavez hasn’t specifically endorsed a U.S. presidential candidate—although he did reminisce about the good old days when he exchanged dialogue with former President Clinton. The tendency in Washington is to ignore Chavez’s anti-American rants while accepting Venezuelan oil—12 percent of the U.S. supply. But Chavez’s anti-Americanism is more than a harmless annoyance. It is another sign of how unstable the U.S. oil supply is, and how weak the U.S. has become while other global powers—especially the European Union and the Russo-China alliance—are growing exponentially stronger.

Anglo-America

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd met with U.S. President George W. Bush on Friday to discuss security issues, just weeks after a visit to the president by former Prime Minister John Howard. The visit, besides coming as a stark contrast against the more conservative Mr. Howard, comes ahead of Canberra releasing a new white paper on defense and security. One of the paper’s co-authors, Prof. Ross Babbage, warns that drastic upgrades to Australia’s defenses are needed to face future challenges—Asian challenges, specifically. Australia is outnumbered and out-armed by its northern neighbors, and has historically relied on the United States to fill its defense gap. With Canberra and, potentially, Washington, both transforming into liberal administrations, however, Australian defense’s logistics, technology and personnel deficiencies may continue to widen.

Britain continues to suffer symptoms of America’s financial flu, with the pound sterling falling nearly 2 percent against the euro following Wall Street’s Bear Sterns crisis. It was the pound’s longest fall since Black Wednesday 16 years ago. Investors panicked, pulling funds from Halifax Bank of Scotland and other mortgage lenders, causing hbs to lose 13 percent of its value and mortgage rates to rise across Britain. The Bank of England injected £5 billion into British money markets to restore confidence in the system, but, overall, Britain’s top 100 companies have lost nearly 20 percent of their value since last June.

On Thursday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice tried to smooth things over in U.S. relations with China by saying that boycotting the Beijing Olympics would be the wrong thing to do. Some, including EU ministers, have considered a boycott of the summer games in view of Beijing’s horrific human rights history, including its current crackdown in Tibet, which Rice referred to as “troublesome policies.”