Do you know what underpins, even drives, the global economy? It’s not the Federal Reserve Bank or any other central bank. It’s not the International Monetary Fund. It’s not a specific country. It’s not gold, oil or any other commodity. It’s not currency traders. It’s not even the almighty greenback.

It’s an invisible force—untouchable, intangible, undeniable. But it’s fickle, susceptible to spur-of-the-moment change. It can be shaped and molded. The truth about what fundamentally drives the global economy is alarming.

The answer: confidence!

That’s right: Our globe-girdling financial system—this interrelated, convoluted web of banks, industry, government, trade, stock markets—is driven by an unseen force lodged within the unstable minds of men. Obviously, the international economic system is driven by the decisions of individuals, ceos, private investors, stockbrokers, industry leaders, manufacturers, government officials. These people shape and mold the economies of the world. But what motivates and influences the individual decisions?

Perceptions. Feelings. Morals. Emotions. Convictions. Confidence.

Take the American dollar, for example. Its role on the world scene is hard to overstate: As the currency of choice for worldwide trade and commerce since World War ii, it has greased the global economy for decades. Why? Fundamentally, it’s because the world’s perception of the United States—that it is a superpower with a strong, consistent and stable economy—has caused individuals and nations to invest their confidence (and subsequently their money) in American power and stability.

The American dollar, like all other fiat currencies, has no intrinsic value of its own—that piece of paper with “$20” on it is not underpinned by anything of real, tangible value. Its value lies in the global demand for the dollar, which is driven by the confidence that the rest of the world invests in the U.S. economy. America’s economic health—to a large and frightening extent—hinges on the whim of the world. If global perceptions of America and its economy change, if people and economies begin to lose confidence in America’s financial stability, serious dilemmas arise.

That’s precisely what is occurring!

America’s bleak economic condition—its multitude of rickety financial institutions, its reckless mortgage-lending practices, its unfathomably high budget and trade deficits, its deflating housing market, its rising unemployment, its massive Social Security and Medicare liabilities, its embarrassing decline in savings; the outrageous personal debt among Americans, the demise of manufacturing, the dependence on foreigners to finance American spending—has been drastically exposed in recent years. And the world, alarmed by what it sees, is growing edgy.

Assumptions about the American economy are being questioned. Perceptions are changing. Confidence in America’s economic supremacy and leadership is cracking—rapidly!

This foreboding reality was confirmed by a large global poll recently conducted by the Pew Research Center (emphasis mine throughout):

Large majorities in countries ranging from economically advanced Great Britain and Germany to developing nations such as Egypt and Indonesia say that what happens in the American economy affects economic conditions in their own countries. With only a few exceptions, the American economy is now seen as having a negative impact on national economies, both large and small, in all parts of the world.

Ask average Americans what nations they think might be upset at the American economy, and most would likely say Iran or Venezuela or China. Few would imagine that much of the world, including our Western friends, now consider the American economy a liability. Sadly, even fewer could explain the ramifications of a world losing confidence in the American economy!

But this plummeting global confidence is a dangerous phenomenon that will affect the life of every American!

Germany’s Der Spiegel recently commented on the ailing reputation of the U.S. Federal Reserve:

The United States Federal Reserve Bank, or Fed, seems as much a part of America as Coca-Cola or Pizza Hut. But at least one difference has become apparent in recent days. While the pizza chain and soft-drink maker are likely to expand their scope of influence in the age of globalization, the U.S. central bank is finding that its power is shrinking.

Confidence in the U.S. Federal Reserve—a central organ in the global financial system, and major instrument of influence for the U.S. government—has plummeted to the point the International Monetary Fund (imf) now wants to examine the U.S. financial system. That’s a telling announcement: Foreign powers consider the U.S. Federal Reserve, formerly the stable backbone of the global financial system, to be so sick they are now demanding the imf give it and virtually the entire U.S. financial system a cat scan.

How embarrassing!

And the imf is not seeking a couple of interviews with Ben Bernanke, a quick scan of the government’s books and an observatory stroll down Wall Street. It’s talking about conducting a full-scale, comprehensive investigation, similar to the audit conducted when the government believes someone might be cheating on taxes.

Der Spiegel continued:

As part of the assessment, the Fed, the Securities and Exchange Commission (sec), the major investment banks, mortgage banks and hedge funds will be asked to hand over confidential documents to the imf team. They will be required to answer the questions they are asked during interviews. Their databases will be subjected to so-called stress tests—worst-case scenarios designed to simulate the broader effects of failures of other major financial institutions or a continuing decline of the dollar.

The world is worried about America’s economic health.

But how concerned is the average American? Sure, most are maddened that the gas pump and cash registrar at the grocery store are demanding more of their dollars. But how many have considered the elemental forces at work—how many have considered the international scope of these extremely worrisome trends?

Even the perceptions of the most ardent supporters of the American Federal Reserve are changing: “For my entire adult life,” wrote Liam Halligan, chief economist at Prosperity Capital Management, “I’ve assumed—and argued—that ‘Anglo-Saxon’ policy-makers are best. … It’s hard not to notice though, that since subprime exploded last summer, while the U.S. Federal Reserve has made a hash of it, the European Central Bank has played its cards quite well.”

Plummeting confidence in the American economic system is a new global trend!

As confidence in the U.S. economy tumbles, the number of people looking to reinvest their trust and confidence elsewhere is quickly growing. The need for a stable, well-managed financial system to stabilize the global financial system is growing. More importantly, that urgent need is increasingly being met. By whom, you ask?

By the Europeans!

The Continent is steadily proving itself to be relatively stable and strong in a global system increasingly turbulent and unpredictable. The Trumpet has reported extensively on this emerging trend; for example, read “New Global Trend: Dump a Dollar, Buy a Euro,” “Germany Reverts to 1930s Economics” and “Dollar Support Wanes as World Economy Looks Elsewhere.” This is not to say Europe’s financial systems aren’t getting their fair share of dings and dents, but its leaders, both individually and nationally, particularly the European Central Bank and Germany, are, as Halligan observed, playing their cards quite well.

It’s hard to deny: America’s fall from economic supremacy is creating a leadership void that Europe is beginning to fill. The world’s confidence is shifting away from the U.S. and behind Europe!

Although this might be a fairly recent trend, it comes as no surprise to long-term readers of the Trumpet and its predecessor, the Plain Truth. For decades, Herbert Armstrong, founder and editor in chief of the Plain Truth, warned that a massive crisis in the American economy and the world’s monetary system would thrust the international economy into chaos and disorder. The havoc this event would cause, he said, would mark the beginning of the Great Tribulation discussed by Jesus Christ in Matthew 24.

“Now we’re hearing in the news of a soon-coming nuclear winter,” he wrote in August 1984. “Nuclear explosions will produce an Earth-covering cloud that will give us a nuclear night. The sun will not get through. Crops will not grow. Billions will be killed by the nuclear blasts. Those remaining will starve. … [T]his is no wolf-wolf cry! It is prophesied in your Bible! It is real! And … economic crisis threatens to bring this about …” (emphasis his).

Global economic calamity is a sure sign that a nuclear holocaust is around the corner!

He also warned, repeatedly, that the same massive economic crisis would facilitate the rapid formation of the united, all-powerful, world-dominating federation of European states discussed in Revelation 17, which you can read about here.

A massive banking crisis in America, he wrote in July 1984, “could suddenly result in triggering European nations to unite as a new world power larger than either the Soviet Union or the U.S. That, in turn, could bring on the Great Tribulation suddenly. And that will lead quickly to the Second Coming of Christ, and end of this world as we know it” (emphasis his).

Observing current world conditions, it doesn’t take a strong imagination to see how a gigantic economic crisis could precipitate major power shifts on the world scene. In recent months, numerous respected individuals—journalists, prominent bankers, and world leaders—have warned that the world, and especially America, will soon be struck by a mammoth economic earthquake.

What is truly remarkable, however, is that Herbert Armstrong discussed—regularly and with great passion—this precise scenario for decades prior to his death in 1986.

It makes you wonder: Who was this man? To find out, begin reading the Autobiography of Herbert W. Armstrong. It’s one of the most riveting, interesting and profound autobiographies you can ever read.