Middle East

Israel announced a unilateral ceasefire on January 17 in its 22-day counteroffensive in the Gaza Strip. In announcing the ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert declared that Israel had achieved its goals. His statement was unconvincing considering the primary goal of the operation was to stop rocket fire from Gaza, and Hamas still managed to fire about 30 rockets into southern Israel on the day of the ceasefire. Several hours later, Hamas announced its own ceasefire, giving Israeli troops one week to pull out of Gaza. Israel didn’t waste any time—the last of its troops had left Gaza by Wednesday, just four days later.

Hamas declared victory in more than a dozen rallies across Gaza. One Hamas leader, Ismail Radwan, told a crowd, “Hamas today is more powerful.” A nearby banner being displayed read, “Hamas is victorious. Israel has been defeated.” Associated Press reported: “In Gaza City, Hamas legislator Radwan spoke from a terrace near the five-story parliament, reduced to a gray pile of concrete by bombings. He said Hamas is stronger than ever and poised to one day take control not just of the West Bank, but also of Israel. ‘Gaza is not our goal,’ he told the crowd. ‘The liberation of all of Palestine, from the river to the sea, God willing, will be achieved’”—in other words, the destruction of Israel. Hamas is already rebuilding its smuggling tunnels. “We can’t say that Hamas’s structure as a movement has been destroyed or even affected,” said Walid Al-Mudallal, a professor at Gaza Islamic University. “Hamas is a movement that knows how to renew and rebuild itself easily.”

More than ever, Iran’s proxy Hamas has emerged from the war as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian cause, in the eyes both of Palestinians and of regional actors. The war “reaffirmed [Hamas’s] position as a major actor not only in the region but in the world,” said Naji Sharab, a political science professor at the al-Azhar university. As evidence of its political gains and increased legitimacy in the eyes of many, on January 16 Hamas for the first time attended a top-level meeting of Arab states in Doha. The Gaza war will prove to be yet another victory for Iran and another defeat for Israel.

Meanwhile, Europe—and particularly Germany—is using the opportunity to deepen its involvement in the peace process. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier presented a five-point plan to EU leaders in Brussels on Monday, in which he outlined the role he thinks Europe should play in helping keep the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Syria also has called for greater German involvement in the region. Syrian President Bashar Assad stated in a Spiegel interview that he would like to see a “larger German role” in the Middle East peace process. Damascus’s overtures toward Germany could be an indication of a coming possible split between Syria and Iran. Bible prophecy reveals that there will be two Muslim blocs in the end time.

Europe

“The bad news is that God doesn’t exist, the good news is that you don’t need him.” So read an Italian advertisement the Union of Rationalist Atheists and Agnostics attempted to display on the sides of buses. Similar ads have been unveiled in Spain, the UK and the U.S., but the government shut down the ad campaign in Italy. The union blames the Catholic Church. “Our Constitution says that there is no state religion, but in reality that isn’t the case,” said event organizer Giorgio Villella. He said that the church in Italy “remains very strong politically.” The Catholic Church is gaining in power, and already holds a lot of sway in Italy. For more information, see our May 2008 Trumpet article “The Kingbreaker.”

Germany wants the European Union to take the lead in finding a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier is working hard to make sure the initiative is not left solely to the United States, according to Germany’s Süddeutsche Zeitung. Steinmeier presented a five-point plan to EU leaders in Brussels on Monday, in which he outlined the role he thinks Europe should play in helping keep the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The paper raises the possibility that the EU could help police the Gaza-Israel crossing points. Last Saturday, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that Britain, Germany and France have offered to send warships to the area. The three nations sent a joint letter to the Israeli and Egyptian governments offering naval support and help monitoring the border crossings into Gaza. Syrian President Bashar Assad also called for Germany to get more involved. Watch for Europe, led by Germany, to play a bigger and bigger role in the peace process.

While German leadership is very pro-Israel, the general public is not. In a poll published January 14, nearly half of Germans polled said that Israel is an “aggressive” country. Fifty-nine percent said that it was ruthless in its pursuit of its interests. Thirteen percent rejected Israel’s right to exist, and 60 percent disagreed with the view that Germany has a “special relationship” with Israel because of the Holocaust. So, while Chancellor Angela Merkel may support Israel, most of the German people do not.

Iceland had its worst street riots in 50 years when 2,000 protesters took to the streets of Reykjavik on Thursday, hurling paving stones at Iceland’s parliament building, over the economic crisis. The day before, protesters threw eggs and soft drinks at Iceland’s prime minister. One of Iceland’s ruling parties is threatening to hold snap elections, which would make Iceland one of the first countries to have a government brought down by the economic crisis. Europe is taking notice. The head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, predicted that the downturn would cause more unrest. It could happen “almost everywhere, in Europe certainly, and also in emerging countries,” he said in an interview with the bbc on Wednesday. “You’ve had some strikes that look like normal, usual strikes, but it may worsen in the coming months.” EU ambassadors in Brussels are closely monitoring the issue. Social unrest caused by the credit crisis is certainly a trend to watch. For more information, see our article “Did the Holy Roman Empire Plan the Greek Crisis?” in the February edition of the Trumpet.

Right-wing Dutch legislator Geert Wilders is to be prosecuted for inciting hatred, discrimination and using insulting language in a film he released last year. Fitna, the 14-minute-long video, links the Koran to violence and shows the hatred some Muslims have toward the West and to Jews. Europe has a problem with its radical Islamic inhabitants. Don’t expect Europe to take it lying down for much longer.

Asia

The United States is urging Japan to reinterpret its pacifist constitution in such a way as to allow the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to take on more global security responsibilities. On Wednesday, outgoing U.S. Ambassador Thomas Schieffer urged Tokyo to become a stronger American ally against authoritarian East Asian regimes like China and North Korea. The fact is, however, that Japan no longer regards its East Asian neighbors as enemies. Last February, Japan’s chief of the Joint Staff Office of the Self-Defense Forces, Takashi Saito, met with China’s Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan in Beijing; the two military leaders agreed to enhance military cooperation between their two countries. With its own state-of-the-art defense force and its growing military alliance with China, Japan is swiftly approaching the point where it no longer needs America as a military partner. In the future, it will cooperate with its East Asian neighbors instead. By exhorting Japan to increase its military spending, the U.S. is ultimately strengthening, not countering, its East Asian rivals.

Meanwhile, the nearly-three-week crisis during which Russia stopped exporting natural gas to Europe via Ukraine appears to have ended, at least for now. It appears a behind-the-scenes deal was struck last weekend between Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. While the exact details of the deal are as yet unknown, this much is clear: Russia is turning the gas back on because Germany, and ultimately Europe, appears to have agreed to allow the Kremlin to work a program designed to return Ukraine to the Russian fold. By throwing Kiev under the bus in a deal with Russia, Germany is essentially dictating European foreign policy. This latest deal between Russia and Germany clearly shows that Berlin is emerging as the mouthpiece of Europe. To learn more about this deal, read Thursday’s column, “Russia Strikes, and Wins—Again!”

Africa/Latin America

The Zimbabwean cholera epidemic is now entrenched in South Africa as well: More than 3,000 South Africans are infected, and over 30 have died. More than 2,750 have died in Zimbabwe, and over 16,000 have contracted the disease. Zimbabwe has turned to the last likely source for aid: Britain, which has promised $15 million in assistance.

Despite Mexico City’s windfall from locking in high-dollar oil contracts, its petroleum industry faces a potentially devastating problem: supply depletion. At its height in 1994, the state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) produced about 3.8 million bpd. That dropped to 2.8 million in 2008, primarily because of declining production in the super-giant oil field Cantarell. These numbers confirm the warning we gave on December 31 (see “Will Mexico Fail in 2009 or 2010?”). The government relies on Pemex for about 40 percent of its budget. If supplies continue to decline, the Mexican government will face an untenable financial position.

In Latin America, leftist governments are slowly taking a more direct hand in the press. In Venezuela, President Hugo Chavez launched his new newspaper column, “Chavez’s Lines,” on January 22, following the lead of Cuban ally Fidel Castro, who contributes “Reflections of Comrade Fidel” to Cuba’s newspapers. The most striking examples, though, are in Bolivia: President Evo Morales, often critical of the local press, announced last month that he would not hold press conferences with local journalists; he also, according to Associated Press, said only 10 percent of journalists are “honorable.” On January 22, he took the next step by launching a daily government newspaper with his administration’s slogan—Cambio, meaning change—as its slogan. The new newspaper joins the ranks of the state-run television station, news agency, radio network, and weekly paper. As Morales increases his control over the country, he faces opposition from two sources. The first, the media, he is doing his best to muzzle. He has also, however, stepped out against the Catholic Church: “The Catholic Church has become a syndicate of opposition to the government,” Morales told supporters in a recent speech as tensions escalated over a January referendum on a proposed constitution. “The Catholic Church and the media are the only opposition I have left.” Last March, a group of Catholic bishops, the Bolivian Episcopal Conference, came out against him officially, saying that the “excessive concentration of power in the executive breaks the necessary balance and independence between the branches of government.” In December, Cardinal Julio Terraza said, “Bolivia is becoming a country without God or law.” Catholicism is ubiquitous in Latin America, and the influence of the Vatican in Latin America is profound. By warning the Catholic Church to stay out of politics in Bolivia, Morales guarantees his own days of power are numbered. For more information on the growing role of the Catholic Church and also the EU in Latin America, read our August 2006 Trumpet article, “Latin America Swings Left.”

Anglo-America

“I, Barack Hussein Obama, do solemnly swear …” sounded from speakers all over the world as millions watched his inauguration as the 44th president of the United States Tuesday afternoon. But of all the exuberance voiced by many Americans, Europeans, Africans, Indonesians and the press corps, those most excited are those of the far left, who are looking to inaugurate the most liberal changes to the government in American history.

In his inauguration speech, Obama set forth what he hopes will be the hallmarks of his administration: overcoming economic disaster, improving health care, transforming schools, reaching out to the Muslim world, securing the nation against security threats and stopping global warming. In light of President Obama’s record, however, the solution he will pose for all these problems, including who gets what wealth, appears clear: an even more gigantic government. This clashes with the values of the Constitution, but also may prove to be simply impossible since the federal government is bankrupt.

Of more urgent concern is America’s national security. The new president’s first executive orders focused on dismantling Central Intelligence Agency secret prisons and interrogation techniques used to extract information from terrorists in order to prevent attacks. The most aggressive of these ceased back in 2003. In answering questions about the orders, Obama’s press secretary, Robert Gibbs, asserted on Thursday that the decision came from the president’s values. He also repeated several times that the president believed closing these prisons will make America safer, but was unable to elaborate how. Meanwhile, questions as to what to do with the dangerous terrorists housed at Guantanamo and elsewhere have been left to a study committee, while the International Herald Tribune reports that a former Guantanamo detainee has surfaced as deputy leader of al Qaeda in Yemen.

The Trumpet forecasts that, because of events currently in progress, America’s tenuous grip on national security will soon slip away altogether.

The State of California is approximately one week away from defaulting on its obligations. Legislators are scrambling to balance the state’s budget, but it is facing a $42 billion deficit. Lawmakers are currently spending so much money that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger could fire every single California civil servant including himself and still not come close to balancing the budget.

Data released today officially confirmed that Britain entered a recession in the fourth quarter of 2008. The country’s gross domestic product fell 1.5 percent from the third quarter and was down 1.8 percent from a year ago.