Hungary’s Sudden Swing to the Right
Both the far and moderate right did extremely well in Hungary’s general elections, April 11.
Conditions in Hungary are not unique. Watch for similar nationalism to rise across Europe.
The center-right party Fidesz won the election by a comfortable majority—gaining 206 out of the 386 seats. It will probably grow to have a two-thirds majority after runoff elections on April 25 in all the districts where no party achieved an absolute majority. If this does happen, this party will have the power to change Hungary’s constitution. This is quite an achievement: It will be the first time Hungary has not been ruled by a coalition government since the end of the Cold War.
Equally dramatic is the success of the far-right, anti-Semitic party Jobbik, which won 16.7 percent of the vote, and 26 seats. Jobbik has strong links with the paramilitary “Hungarian Guard”—its leader, Gabor Vona, was one of the guard’s co-founders. The Hungarian Guard’s uniforms copy those of Hungary’s fascist party during World War ii, and it has attacked Roma settlements and vilified Jews. The guard was banned in 2008.
The biggest losers in the April 11 election were the socialists, who won only 19 percent of the votes, compared to 43 percent last time around.
Hungary was one the countries hit hardest by the economic crisis. It was the first European country to ask for help from the International Monetary Fund. The effect is now clear: a strong shift to the right.
“The election of Jobbik points to a recent trend—confirmed by the 2009 European Parliament elections—of increased electoral success of far-right nationalist parties,” writes American think tank Stratfor. “While this is not a new phenomenon—Europe’s electorates often turn far right during times of economic crisis—it is one that is especially strong in Central Eastern Europe” (April 13).
Its analysis gives a chilling warning. “[I]f the 2008 economic crisis has revealed one thing, it is that nationalism is slowly becoming politically convenient, and a successful political strategy,” it writes. “First, the legitimacy of the European Union is shaken, especially by how the bloc has handled the Greek economic crisis. Second, countries all over Europe are taking cues from a suddenly ‘normal’ Germany that has been looking to further its own interests at the expense of European unity, especially during the aforementioned Greek crisis. We are witnessing a process in which the elite—once happily co-opted by EU solidarity—turns toward nationalism. We can therefore expect to see not only a rise in far-right nationalism, but also a reorientation of center-right parties such as Fidesz toward a more traditional nationalist platform.”
So, not only will the far-right parties become more popular, but the moderate parties will also become more right wing. This is a trend the Trumpet has been predicting for years.
But this does not mean the end of the European Union. Far from it. Expect Europe as a whole to become more right wing. More nationalistic sentiment may lead to increased squabbling in the short term. But as the economy falls, Russia rises, and the world becomes more dangerous, European nations will be driven together. Then, you are left with a united, right-wing Europe, with Germany at the helm—a scary situation.