Iraq’s two main rival Shiite coalitions announced Tuesday that they have agreed to merge into a single parliamentary bloc. While the political wrangling is not over, and a prime minister has yet to be chosen, this coalition deal gives these Shiite blocs a strong chance of setting up the next government, thus cementing Iranian domination of Iraq.

Together, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law bloc and the Iranian-backed Islamist Iraqi National Alliance (ina)—which took second and third place respectively in the March 7 elections—are just four seats shy of the majority needed to form a government. “An ina-SoL coalition,” says Stratfor, is “political poison for Iraq’s Sunnis, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and anyone else in the region that is highly uncomfortable with the idea of Iraq living under an Iranian shadow” (May 5).

With a super Shia majority on the verge of ruling Iraq, along with other factors, says Stratfor, Iran now has the upper hand in American-Iranian relations:

The Iranians can see that the U.S.-led sanctions effort, while irritating, lacks bite. They can also see that the U.S. administration is not interested at the moment in waging a third military campaign in the Islamic world, no matter how much Israel complains. Iran is thus in a prime position. They have a super Shia majority getting ready to rule Iraq, while the United States is left helpless for the most part.

On top of that, Iran is reminding America of its ability to cause havoc in Iraq through its militant proxies there. The same day that the Shiite coalition deal was announced, radical anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr—whose movement is the largest group in the ina—proclaimed the revival of his Mahdi Army and threatened to attack American troops if they didn’t stick to their Dec. 31, 2011, deadline to leave the country. The militia’s armed wing, called the “Promised Day Brigade,” will “prepare quietly to launch qualitative attacks against the occupiers (U.S. forces) if they stay beyond 2011,” al-Sadr’s spokesman said. “It will have a big role to play to drive them out of Iraq.”

Al-Sadr has been living under Iranian protection since 2007. In 2008, he disbanded his militia, no doubt at the behest of Tehran. But, as we said at the time, in trying to strengthen his political position—which he has succeeded in doing—“don’t expect him—or Iran—to give up the terror card.”

With a pro-Iranian Shiite bloc poised to gain power in Iraq, and a pro-Iranian militia resurging, is it just a matter of time before America has to concede Iranian dominance in Iraq and beyond?