The U.S. in Iraq—to stay or not to stay
Tens of thousands of supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr marched through Baghdad on May 26 in a show of force intended to warn that they will restart the Shiite insurgency if U.S. troops do not leave Iraq by the end of the year.
The crowd shouted “No, no America!” and stomped on U.S., British and Israeli flags that had been painted on the road for that purpose.
Sadr’s top aide, Salah al-Obeidi, reiterated the cleric’s promise to unleash his Mahdi Army if the December deadline isn’t met, saying, “We will be obliged to fight and do our best to liberate our country.”
The anti-American Shiite cleric Sadr is backed by Iran and enjoys considerable support among Iraqis. His party’s support of Nouri al-Maliki was critical to the prime minister gaining a second term and forming a government last year after a nine-month impasse. And this is the complication for America.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has asked Baghdad to host American troops in Iraq beyond the end of the year, the deadline stipulated in the current agreement between the two countries. While there is support among some Iraqi political groups for such an extension, it is widely opposed by Iraqi citizens—and Muqtada al-Sadr.
America wants to stay in Iraq longer in order to maintain stability and counteract Iran’s growing influence in the country and the region. The Maliki government has been making efforts to improve relations with Iran. Most recently, Prime Minister al-Maliki said that increased military, security and political cooperation with Iran was essential and would be pursued, Mehr News Agency reported May 16.
The Wall Street Journal reported May 25:
Some military officials say that without a continued U.S. presence, Iraq is likely to fall into the orbit of Iran. In a paper released Tuesday, Frederick Kagan, an influential defense analyst, argued that without a continued U.S. presence, Iraq would also be vulnerable to continued insurgent-style attacks from Iran-backed proxies or even a full-scale invasion by Iran.
“The Iraqi Security Forces will not be able to defend Iraq’s sovereignty, independence from Iran, and internal stability without American assistance, including some ground forces, for a number of years,” Mr. Kagan wrote.
Meanwhile, Shiite militias have stepped up attacks on U.S. bases and troops recently, including rocket and mortar attacks and roadside bombings, in an effort to make sure the American forces leave. There were 162 attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq in April. There is suspicion among U.S. intelligence agencies that Iran may be behind these attacks.
As the Trumpet has long said, Iran will cement its takeover of Iraq once the U.S. leaves. Washington is now desperately trying to delay this eventuality.
