Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda will become Japan’s next prime minister after he was elected head of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (dpj) on Monday and named prime minister in a vote of the lower house of parliament on Tuesday. Noda will be Japan’s third prime minister since the dpj rose to power in a historic victory two years ago and will become the nation’s sixth premier in just five years.

Reeling from the devastating March earthquake and tsunami, an economy that has been underperforming for 20 years, and a fiscal debt that dwarfs even that of the United States as a ratio to the national economy, Japan desperately needs strong leadership. But analysts do not expect such leadership to come from Noda.

Bloomberg columnist William Pesek said, “Voters wanted Seiji Maehara, the former foreign minister, who they hoped might be less beholden to entrenched power brokers in Tokyo. Instead, they may be getting the same old, same old. As finance minister, Noda has displayed none of the boldness or fresh thinking Japan so badly needs. Not even a hint, in fact” (August 29).

Noda has taken a firm stance on Tokyo’s territorial disputes with Beijing, and he defends Japan’s actions in World War ii, so his political posturing on these issues could help to boost Japanese nationalism and legitimate the nation’s military expansion. But, unless Japan suddenly experiences a wave of latent militarism, in the current fog of malaise that permeates the island nation’s politics and economics, such a change would be slight, if at all.

Among the weightiest issues the new prime minister faces are: Japan’s deep-rooted structural economic problems; rebuilding after the earthquake and nuclear disaster; rapid currency appreciation; rising tensions with China and South Korea; and crippling infighting within the dpj. Stratfor expressed pessimism about Noda’s future in light of these challenges, saying, “Considering the wide array of problems that must be addressed, Noda is unlikely to experience any more success than his predecessor” (August 29).

Japan is the world’s third-largest economy and currently the U.S.’s most important Asian ally. Its political paralysis has implications extending beyond the island country of 127 million people.

Economically, environmentally, demographically and politically, the nation that has been such a crucial postwar force of Asian stability and of cooperation with the West is becoming weaker. And as the island nation stagnates in political paralysis, it leaves more and more space for another Asian power to rise up to become the region’s leading voice. That country is China.

Last year, following three decades of spectacular growth, China overtook Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy behind the U.S. Japan had held the second-place position for nearly 40 years. While Japan’s population and economy are rapidly aging, China has urbanized at lightning speed and, despite a slowdown over the past four months, has much more room to grow. As China eclipses Japan, Beijing is beginning to reshape global dialogue on an array of issues, such as its assertion that the dollar must be phased out as the world’s primary reserve currency. “They’re exerting a lot of influence on the global economy and becoming dominant in Asia,” said Eswar Prasad, former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division.

While China is still relatively poor per capita, it has an authoritarian government that is capable of taking decisive actions—the type of actions that are not possible in politically paralyzed Tokyo. Noda’s appointment as Japan’s prime minister is another indication of Japan’s political malaise and its currently diminishing power. The situation is being prepared for China to take the dominant role in Asia. However, Bible prophecy does indicate that Japan will rebound in the future and form an alliance with both China and Russia as a leading power in Southeast Asia. That scenario will lead to a massive clash between East and West. To understand more, read our free booklet Russia and China in Prophecy.